Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for either Q1 or Q2 of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q2, currently scheduled to be released on July 30, 2025. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q2 2025 is rele

$1.4M Vol.Ends 31 Aug 2025

Comments (101)

betloser17341d

thoughts now

0x5b08…438d

8.168%

CompulsiveGambler449d

I think it's going to be extremely close to that number but I'll take the under

Bx2448368V456d

Calling it will be right about 7.91%. Can someone smarter than me tell me what the greater implications for the US economy are? We haven't seen above 5% since the recession in 1975 where unemployment jumped to 9%, GDP dropped by over 3%, and inflation went to 12%.

Bx2448368V456d

Not really. The formula is: [Weighted Tariff % = ((Customs Duties)/(Goods Import Revenue)) * 100]. We know that customs duties for April, May, and June were $15.6, $22.17, and $28.0 Billion respectively. We know that Import Revenue was $277.9B for April and $275.8B for May. All that's left is June imports, which is likely going to be around $278B. Just from April and May we get about 6.83% on those two months combined, but the final Q2 weighted average still depends on June. Unless June magically saw imports spike above $762.44B, it's going to be over 5%, likely ~7.91%.

phdecon457d

weighted average can be tricky

phdecon457d

don't forget "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

striderincity459d

WHY? there is real tariff revenue being received no?

HumanoidRobot459d

literally free money, supported by fake news. Thanks, buying more No.

CompulsiveGambler464d

April was about 6% and may was about 7% according to my model.

MWorld465d

2.4%? Source? There has also been a lot of tariff revenue in these two months. Additionally June. This will probably end up above 5%

HumanoidRobot465d

Nope, 22 bln is only for June. Q2 consists from April and May, where weight is dangling around 2.4%.

ExceptionalAmerican465d

Weighted is going to be around 14%

HumanoidRobot466d

is it calculated in the [link removed] fed or not? Even if factored in, that massive jump is lower than 4%, which will resolve market to No

ExceptionalAmerican467d

121 billion in tarrif revenue. Sell those no positions now! [link removed]

betloser17476d

what's the verdict

B.Gorenstein476d

To hit 5% custom duty receipts has to increase by 60% and the value of goods imported has to fall by 15%. As of now the odds of this happening are less than 10% so I wouldn't be so pessimistic.

MWorld478d

800 billion in goods imports accepted

MWorld478d

If I've got it right, the customs revenues for the quarter so far are: April: USD 19.3 billion May: USD 23 billion If the same amount is generated in June, the average weighted tariff rate is likely to be above 5%. 19.3 + 23 + 23 (assumed) = 65.3 65.3 / 800 = 8.16%

cly478d

Tarrifs are not applied to everything, just certain products, and not to services. So, this is the average taking into account all the imports that are made. I think it will be higher than 5%, but not so obvious as the market has right now. Probably 70/30 would be more accurate.

B.Gorenstein479d

Because they don't read the terms of resolutions and how the average weighted tariff is actually calculated. They think it is just the average 10% tariff and thus it has to be over 5%.

Bobec479d

Wait why there are so many people with yes

B.Gorenstein489d

Bro did you even read the resolution terms?😂

Lucazindacut490d

When is this over?

DragonRider-819500d

[link removed] And the tariffs are back

BeanieSeagull500d

TACO

Toncar16500d

[link removed]

Toncar16500d

A US federal court has officially blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect

ExceptionalAmerican501d

Bro your position screwed no matter what Yale it's peg the tariffs at 17.8%-18.3%, Bloomberg 22%, NYC comptroller 12.7%. grok says avg figure is22% this is for quarter 2 2025 weighted avg.

B.Gorenstein502d

average weighted tariff is not the generall tariff rate. The worst case is 60% quarter on quarter surge in tariffs collected and a 15% quarter on quarter drop in imports which implies an average weighted tariff of 4.5%.

MWorld505d

But general tariff rate ist 10%. So why the worst case is 4.5%? There aren't that many exceptions, are there?

B.Gorenstein505d

No, without the 50% tariff the worst case is 4.5%.

Hulkiorra505d

If not you're also fucked

B.Gorenstein506d

If 50% tariffs on the EU are announced on June 1st I'm fucked..

godson02515d

nevermind, i'm stupid

godson02515d

I get 22.75b in tariffs and 1006 billion in imports so 2.26%

dEhvmzCa525d

isnt this just free money?

studmuffin6969529d

10% tariff had like no effect since tranches of china tariffs were already in place from his first term.

Euan529d

For anyone wondering Q1 2025 is also 2.63 not that it matters as tariffs came into effect April 2nd 😭😭

godson02532d

Q1 is going to be 1.9%

godson02532d

Yeah, so i changed my mind. This is a no

kayle538d

china was placed, and a lot of others

studmuffin6969542d

Nothing was in place q1

ExceptionalAmerican542d

Go ask Ai to crunch to numbers. the rates is going to blow past 5 % in Q1 alone.

CompulsiveGambler542d

Fuck it i need some capital this is taking too long lmao

Commodore543d

The St. Louis fed will provide the official documentation. For how much tariffs were actually paid, AFTER it actually happens. This market Is set to expire in the future, after tariffs have been measured.

Commodore543d

I see a lot of people in the comment section who don't read the rules, and clearly don't understand that this is based on the actual final accounting of customs duties assessed.

studmuffin6969544d

I don't see any rules cuck unless musk eliminates BEA...

studmuffin6969545d

lol wut?

Free2Bash546d

Because the "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis" has not published the Q1 or Q2 report that shows a U.S. weighted average tariff of 5% or greater

Jyggalag546d

How is this not resolved to yes alrdy??

JoseB144548d

10% general tariff for the world has been acting. [link removed]

OttovonBismarck550d

it doesnt really matter that much since Q1 likely has reached the threshold already: [link removed] and [link removed]

zoone550d

fake, confirmed to be false: [link removed]

zoone550d

not fake, confirmed to be true: [link removed]

grapplin551d

And the possibility was immediately discredited by the white house, soooo....

nicolasGurr552d

got scammed by the jewish media again

CyberPunk552d

fake news confirmed by white house

Linslav552d

Bro its been 50 years, and just now there is a possibility of 90 days pause

nicolasGurr552d

JUST IN: President Trump considers 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China. [link removed] .If this goes thru it's over for Q2

CompulsiveGambler552d

and both of the wolves are gay

CompulsiveGambler552d

My passion for talking shit in the comment section is coming into conflict with my passion for taking other peoples money. But i'm letting the money win

nicolasGurr552d

we were at 3.5% during Biden presidency. No way all this doesn't even move it up by 1.5%

Linslav552d

Between backtracking some tariffs, not applying others, negotiating some of them and other countries responding with retaliation with their own tariffs there is no way we are getting to1975 numbers, this is 2025. Easy no.

ICountElectricSheep552d

let them believe that counter tariffs will lower it.

kayle553d

there is still a chance for lag and delayed tax reciepts and have happened before

kayle553d

Nixon Shock’s 10% import surcharge increased the percentage by 2.2 but this time the tariffs are 10% on everything plus a lot large percentage of imports are from can/mexic which 50% will tbe tariffed instead of a fta free trade agreement. USCMA the other 50% catagory will not have any tariffs which is not good for yes holders

kayle553d

people buying no rn are hoping for a dump when q1 data comes out which is def less than 5% but based on my calculations still close with the increasing tariffs in march. and then ppl doing no are probably thinking that it doesnt really go over 2 percentage change within any quarter other than q4 of 1971 and q1 of 1972... it was due to the 10% thing but this time tariffs way higher and its also implimented early in the quarter so theres no point thinking (equation is tariff rev/total imports) total import wont be too high since tariffs started quite early. I bought no cause of some other factors but ended up selling at a lose to not risk it

CompulsiveGambler553d

Counter tariff will change literally nothing. The weighted average tariff right now is almost 25%. Even if he rolls them all back, you'll lose if he does it later than april

ICountElectricSheep553d

its weighted by trade volume so the eff. rates with china and EU will dominate. 5% is fait accompli but please let us load our bags even larger

ICountElectricSheep553d

last time we had tariff policy like this was in 1800s. higher tariff rate imposed than smoot-hawley. even if he reduces it by 75% we'll be well above 5%

Linslav553d

Look at the resolution source, the last time it was over 5% was 1975... a counter tariff by affected countries also lower the %.

nicolasGurr553d

Baseline tariffs is 10%. Most countries have 30%+. No way he puts the average below 5% in less than 90 days

CompulsiveGambler554d

yep its basically a bet that all the april 2 tariffs will be undone in the first month......which is not a bet i would take for 19c lmao

Free2Bash555d

In addition the market wont resolve until the Q2 report is published which is currently july 30 and you would bind your money until then

Free2Bash555d

The gamble is that it wont persist through Q2 ... it needs to be 5% on average throughout Q2 which is about 90 days long ... so there is still room for them to be lifted

ouiouibaguette01555d

Can someone please explain why anyone in their right mind would buy no shares at this point. There is a 10% Tariff on everything and higher tariffs on specific countries. How could the glodbal average be less than 5%?

Free2Bash556d

He literally put a 10% tariff on the entire globe

CompulsiveGambler557d

Send it to 99 lads, that's a wrap

CompulsiveGambler572d

Because the more time passes without trump lifting the tariffs, the closer yes is to winning

0x4cDD4ec2Fa702073664307672B0f05ed4DC4c90e-1723233827691572d

Why did it just jump 10%

OneT578d

good upside. Trump loves to tariff

Nagaremono582d

We’ve all done our back of the envelope calculation. There’s plenty of safety margin with Yes hitting.

thebetter1234582d

Tbh I didnt expect Q1 to hit, most Trump's tariffs were announced late january, so without one effective month it was difficult, plus EU tariffs should come into effect next month. I still think it's quite likely to hit for Q2 unless the canada/mexico tariffs are completely rolled back. Even then, with the new chinese tariffs and European tariffs it could still hit. US effective tariff rate for q3 or q4 24 was 2.5x% if I remember correctly. An additional 2.5% from: additional chinese tariffs, EU tariffs, whatever Canadian and mexican tariffs are left, plus trump just threated japan so who knows. I think the chances are higher than what it's trading for

DragonRider-819583d

That and its now impossible for the market to resolve to yes with the Q1 data, so even if yes does win it won't be resolved until the end of July

DragonRider-819583d

There isn't much activity, and a thin order book, so one person deciding to sell will move the price quite a lot

Cinxh5583d

The tarrifa on canada and mexico aint that big of a deal why did it drop so much

EE12583d

Given that he just cancelled a large portion of the tariffs on Mexico and Canada for another month, I'd say the changes are pretty high.

EE12584d

Trump Delays Canada, Mexico Tariffs for Goods Under USMCA: [link removed]

TraderJoe-s585d

however the next release will be for the Q4 Third Estimate, so indeed I was wrong

TraderJoe-s585d

and the link in the rules mentions that the U.S. weighted average tariff are released in this document

TraderJoe-s585d

[link removed] it displays "Next release: March 27, 2025"

DragonRider-819585d

As for the calculation it is simply tarriff income / total imports

DragonRider-819585d

The above comment is wrong, the data is scheduled to be released on 30th April for Q1 and 30th July for Q2 [link removed]

Jinmao585d

Source? Also is it calculated prorated for exactly when in the quarter a tariff may have been imposed?

TraderJoe-s586d

Q1 report scheduled on March 27, 2025.

CompulsiveGambler586d

The tariffs currently in effect represent an approximate 10 percentage point increase in weighted average tariff. So this market is basically pricing a 60% chance that they get rolled back sometime in the next 2 months, which is possible, but seems high!

autosre587d

He just said tarrifs go live tommorow on Mexico and Canada

JonnyWuhanny596d

don't forget all my exes and my dead hamster

NihilisticMeerkat607d

Spoke to Trump last night - he's going to tariff the shit out of everyone including your grandmother and your dog. Thanks for the money!

OneT613d

I'm so excited for Great Depression

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