NATO x Russia military clash by...?
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
CW19754h
Bloomberg: poland-probes-possible-attack-planned-on-premier-defense-chief // tensions dont reduce ...
nickthechopper3d
It was not an attack on a NATO military. The target was a civilian grain carrier
johnsic4d
Armed men from Belarus crossed into Latvia A group of masked men attempted to force around 20 illegal migrants across the border. The men were armed and threatened Latvian troops. Latvia’s armed forces said the incident was particularly demonstrative and aggressive compared with many previous provocations. Several hours later, the men managed to enter EU territory, damaged an electrical distribution box and stole surveillance cameras before returning to Belarus, Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava said.
guacamole.nz4d
The market is about Russia accidentally hitting NATO ground. That's always a realistic, but minor risk.
CondeDeBelloch4d
russia just attacked two ships traveling from Romania (a NATO member) to Turkey (a NATO member) and, conversely, from Turkey (a NATO member) to Romania (a NATO member). They were attacked in the exclusive economic zone of Bulgaria (a NATO member). Both ships are owned by Turkish (NATO member) companies. Time to pay.
johnsic5d
This is a major escalation by Russia. Russia is sinking merchant ships from NATO countries in the exclusive economic zones of NATO countries. Neither vessel had made a recent port of call in Ukraine. One ship was sailing to Turkey from Romania, and the other was sailing to Turkey from Egypt.
Mr.Frog🐸5d
Drones attacked two commercial vessels near the coast of Bulgaria: one sank, and the other caught fire, — BGNEWS Bulgarian sailors are conducting a large-scale rescue operation in the Black Sea waters east of Cape Saint Athanasius and the town of Byala following the UAV attack. This is the first attack on vessels in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.
jvro5d
Yes, but that’s what people think. IMO it’s not gonna happen anytime soon
Raskell6d
No it wouldn't unless it was a military ship
johnsic6d
A Turkish cargo ship carrying grain has just been hit 20 nautical miles off the coast of Romania in the Black Sea by a drone 13 of the crew are missing. If its Russian drone this might qualify.
jvro8d
Dude, good luck losing money 🤠
guacamole.nz8d
The way I see it, October market has about a 12% chance of happening
jvro8d
Remember, nothing ever happens. Market rules are tricky, but still has low change of YES.
NotaJoe11d
Ukraine is the only country putin wants to conquer, also putin
octoppp15d
yep its scam
0x30ab…15d
You know what a question is?
anti4rist15d
cope
0xC9052e6f4fAbD841895D8C36aD183866aAC8Af09-176789105237216d
The conditions here make very little sense and leave so much room for ambiguity and dispute - if a russian ballistic missile is shot down over Poland but its supposedly intended for Ukraine that doesn't count since its targetting a 3rd party? But shooting down a reconnaissance UAV counts? Make it make sense...
Colorgreen17d
Ha Ha, so buy YES
guacamole.nz17d
Someone might propose yes on some incident. Like the Lithuania drone and then Uma their way through.
1212111010117d
what
1212111010117d
a
Edem118d
what do you mean
laureman18d
scam market. Be aware NO holders
CondeDeBelloch19d
Because orcs cannot help themselves. It's not "if", it's when they will attack.
Ban4ik19d
какие 20% на октябрь уже вы обалдели что ли 😭😭😭
jjjjok666621d
3 WW incoming
ShadowOG2622d
No military clash is gonna happen, you are loosing it all
PIkk24d
the rules need careful reading here
jjjjok666624d
impossible
Donjon24d
I'm hoping escalation remains avoidable
octoppp24d
Dude, a few weeks ago a Russian cruise missile crashed into a field in Poland. A few days ago, a Russian drone was spotted in Lithuania. A few weeks ago, a Russian drone tried to blow up a transport plane at an airport in Germany. lol
octoppp25d
The administration stubbornly ignores it; they only acknowledge the market if a missile lands—accompanied by a packet of documents confirming it came from Russia.
finalyhere25d
dont believe that
Nicolasro9125d
Want to know it too
jjjjok666626d
why it raised so high today lol?
aspepnips26d
how likely is it to be 100% identifitied as operated by russia? if lithuanian authority claims "most likely russian" is that enough to qualify?
ArthurGreen26d
THIS IS POTENTIALLY BIG. "A NATO fighter jet shot down a drone in Lithuania shortly after midnight on Tuesday, the Lithuanian national crisis management centre said. The drone, which likely entered from Belarus, was shot down near Pratkunai village in southern Lithuania, near Kaunas, the second-largest city, the centre’s spokesperson said. ITS ORIGIN IS YET TO BE DETERMINED, he said." (Source: Internazionale) So this is exactly the type of event where a later forensic identification could change things dramatically and in favor for a yes-resolution!
0x2E557b6d82D31c810D52F2dD694eD2f754E8Fb2A-177749664102326d
LITHUANIA JUST SHOT DOWN A UAV FROM RUSSIA 🚨🚨🚨‼️‼️‼️
0x30ab…28d
A Russian drone impacting on nato territory is not enough?
cgtb32d
living in Poland
lottonakamoto32d
On the afternoon of September 8, residents of the Romanian cities of Iași and Vaslui received an RO-Alert message warning of a possible drone crash or its fragments. The General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations issued the warning to residents of the aforementioned cities at 4:36 PM local time, Ziare reports. "There is a risk of objects falling from the air. Remain calm! Take shelter in basements or civil defense shelters. If shelter is not available, stay inside your home, away from windows and external walls. Estimated duration: 90 minutes," the message stated.
lottonakamoto32d
Днем 8 сентября жители румынских городов Яссы и Васлуй получили сообщение RO-Alert с предупреждением о возможном падении дронов или их фрагментов. Генеральная инспекция по чрезвычайным ситуациям выпустила предупреждение для жителей упомянутых городов в 16:36 по местному времени, пишет Ziare. "Существует вероятность падения объектов из воздушного пространства. Сохраняйте спокойствие! Укройтесь в подвалах или убежищах гражданской защиты. В отсутствие укрытия оставайтесь внутри дома, подальше от окон и наружных стен. Предполагаемая продолжительность: 90 минут", — говорилось в сообщении.
12beduins35d
ukr getting wrecked, only chance is to somehow involve NATO
lottonakamoto35d
During the State Duma elections, Russians living in unfriendly countries will open ten polling stations at border crossings with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, Pavel Andreyev, a member of the Russian Central Election Commission, told TASS. Five polling stations will be set up in the Pskov Region, four in the Kaliningrad Region, and one in the Leningrad Region. The last will be located in Ivangorod, at the Ivangorod-Narva Russian-Estonian border crossing. According to Andreyev, the polling stations may be in demand, including by Russians living in Poland and Germany. A similar format was already used during the March 2024 presidential elections. Then, 11 polling stations were opened at the borders with Poland and the diverse Baltic states, where approximately 10,000 people cast their ballots. This is where conflicts and provocations are possible.
CW197537d
Trading is disabled, here and elsewhere, too - Platform does not work properly for several days, though we pay a lot of fees 🙄
tricky.eth39d
Europe (noun): "A continent of the northern hemisphere, separated from Africa to the south by the Mediterranean Sea and from Asia to the east roughly by the Bosporus, the Caucasus Mountains, and the Ural Mountains. Europe contains approximately 20 per cent of the world's population." Ukraine is located west of the Caucasus mountains. Therefore it is in Europe. I say this despite already knowing that you clearly don't have the reading comprehension skills necessary to understand this.
Laure39d
Ní ionradh pleanáilte atá i mbaol, ach timpiste oibríochtúil gan srian sa Mhuir Bhailt nó sa Mhuir Dhubh a chuirfeadh borradh géaraithe faoi.
0xA1D6B7c8f2271D153A60d48F5656f6Cc49d4982D-177757400911343d
New sea drone "incident", this time a ship sank: Romanian sailors fleeing the ship reported a drone strike. Observers and local accounts indicate it appears to be a Russian drone attack, continuing a dangerous uptick of drone incidents in the Black Sea throughout 2026."
12beduins44d
ukr pooping themselves in fear its over
pookyisback45d
Nah
Car45d
Its happening.
12beduins45d
its neither european nor country
0xf7eFBaBC3C14Bc7c1A8Cf7b79808e093ca23E53F-178319970836345d
what
xew4w334545d
Sky is red
12beduins45d
ukraines not european country
nottrito46d
The last time a CIA director was in Russia, a European country was invaded.
DonationsReceiver46d
ну позязя не непадай на НАТО
12beduins47d
rhetorical question bitch, look it up!
imstupid48d
People die in wars, did you not know?
12beduins50d
What a failure it is, Project Ukraine 👎 👎 👎
12beduins50d
Ukraine now talking bout conscripting women. HAHAHAHAH WHAT HAPPENED TO THE MEN!?!?!!!?!
Raskell51d
Romanias mapn confirmed it had explosives
Tezcatlipoca51d
/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1vtids6/romanian_f16_strafing_a_russian_naval_drone_near/
Tezcatlipoca51d
There's a video of it being shot on reddit, it doesn't blow up. Sorry no explosives
