Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?
$1.8M Vol.Ends 29 Apr 2025
$1.8M Vol.Ends 29 Apr 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
KalebSylney539d
Trump NO.1
DodgyDad550d
- It has to cease operations entirely. It has to be shut down and dead and the doors locked behind them; an order to close is not enough to be considered a 'yes', the job of closing/merging has to be actually complete by April 30.
OverlookHotel562d
They can bypass Congress in case of department elimination by merging, some experts say. That's why this was clarified in the conditions going for YES.
LeeZaiMing563d
Uma will touch this too?
Rukio566d
Why is he a retard exactly?
Noctambulant566d
All in all I only put $50 on this because just based on percentage it seems like a longshot but it just seems undervalued to me given that there is a reasonable world in which this happens and is basically only prevented by 2 factors: (1) if judges or congress block this and (2) if they are too slow in dismantling things to get it done within the 100 day time period.
Noctambulant566d
Not to mention Trump said that McMahon would be our final secretary of education and she keeps talking about completing the "final mission" of the DoE implying the ultimate goal is to phase it out entirely.
Noctambulant566d
“I think we’re looking at putting things in different departments where they can operate very efficiently as we look at how we can shut down the Department of Education,” according to the education secretary
Noctambulant566d
Honestly suprised this isnt valued at least slightly higher given the EO. I mean I know that it still needs to go through congress but its not unreasonable that they could absorb the department elsewhere within the next month and a half especially given how much support congress has had for this. 2% just feels quite low to me especially given the other market for this happening within 2025. If it's going to happen it will likely happen soone rather than later.
daoxin566d
hard to say
slay0703567d
I bet all in on this
0x180659d98E1FEc19Be1c895bFBd7606febE68feA-1742499430328568d
It says right there: "until it merges or ceases activity" . The executive order is given, but it still has to pass through senate or congress or something and this could still take months (I'm not an American not sure exactly how this has to happen)
IndraGoldenHands568d
sources say this will end in yes pretty soon
JulieCash568d
you're retard , but don't worry, I was like that too, I'm trying to get over it
CtrlAltHandsome569d
why isnt this resolved yet? the order has been sign
mitraa569d
learn to take a L
mitraa569d
hehe
anonusergfbf569d
Shush. Let someone lose their UMA bond for being an idiot.
PhannyPhantom569d
Ceases operations entirely is literally what has to happen. A merger or consolidation where the DoE is no longer a thing has to happen, but that hasn't happened yet. They may be trying to do that, but saying "I'm going to tear down this thing, and am ordering it to happen" is NOT the same as it actually being taken down. Which is again, what the market is looking for. Intentions don't matter
PhannyPhantom569d
It literally isn't semantics, it's the direct wording of what this market is for. The definition is very clearly laid out, and unless you can prove that the DoE has ceased to function as the market is ruling, you won't be paid, period
saintyves569d
and ceases operations entirely is cherry-picking, thats not the only condition. there's three other paragraphs
saintyves569d
semantics, if he signed it pay us
PhannyPhantom569d
An EO**
PhannyPhantom569d
Did you even read the rules? It very clearly states at the start "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely"... This literally hasn't happened. An Rob saying to do this isn't what the market is betting on, so it's worthless
LisaTaylor-584569d
corecttt
saintyves569d
someone should propose a yes already, the EO is signed. I tried but I dont have the bond. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No", and since he has performed the executive action needed this should resolve to a 'yes'
mitraa569d
aww
Jac411569d
AI is terrible at predictiions
revmeatsandwich569d
he doesn't need 60 senators to rename it and fold it into another department. and per rules that counts.
ExceptionalAmerican569d
Verdict (Cautious) April 29: 35-45 percent. EO today (March 20) and cuts move fast, but reconciliation’s 5-7 weeks (May 1-8) miss by days legal snags (40 percent) and slim GOP margins (20 percent) drag it. Option 2 half-done by April 29. End of 2025: 60-70 percent. EO sets stage, reconciliation or H.R. 899 land by fall (July-October) 287 days buffer legal and congressional risks. Merger sticks, title fades.
Tremirorot569d
Department won't be shuttered but perhaps it can be folded into different other agencies? Somewhat of a gray area
bnetopt569d
Grok says odds should be at 20-30% range
Jofrompe569d
Are people forgetting you need 60 senators to vote to end the department of education
Gambler667569d
lol then holding yes is pointless
Gambler667569d
im confused why are yes people thinking he is ceasing operations entirely when news outlets clearly state its getting DOWNSIZED?
LisaTaylor-584569d
does rhis ppl realy think no still have a chance💀
LisaTaylor-584569d
brahhh where tf is the pump
LisaTaylor-584569d
Trump looks so good signing that paper
insiderfat570d
How do I interpret this rule? What does it mean to "end" or "cease"? Today's EO is about ordering the closure, but the act of congress is required to formally close it right?
LisaTaylor-584570d
we have 2months for that
LisaTaylor-584570d
trump please just sign the eo its not that deep
saintyves570d
L take cease operating on poly
LisaTaylor-584570d
fly me to the moon~~~ and let me play among the stars~~~
LisaTaylor-584570d
ill wake up tommorow in sunshine
mitraa570d
NY Times - President Trump plans to sign an executive order on Thursday instructing Education Secretary Linda McMahon to begin dismantling the agency, according to two White House officials.
mitraa570d
NY times - The department cannot be closed without the approval of Congress, which created it.
mitraa570d
still a very small chance, nearly zero that the department ceases operations entirely within this markets timeframe if at all during this presidency
saintyves573d
I'd like it gone immediately
LordAzrael577d
The rules are very poorly drafted. "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
DylanDaSpider578d
As part of the Department of Education’s final mission, the Department today initiated a reduction in force (RIF) impacting nearly 50% of the Department’s workforce. - Education Secretary Linda McMahon [link removed]
TiP-TOE-WiN584d
You are a true saint. SomaliaN saint!
Rxgb584d
Much much safer bet here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-end-department-of-education-in-2025/will-trump-end-department-of-education-in-2025?tid=1741233850696
Car584d
what have I done? All i did was buy because of the news and thanked Trump
TiP-TOE-WiN584d
Read the rules and don't fall for that orange cat's skibidi pumps.
Rxgb584d
Happening: [link removed]
Car584d
Thanks Trump!
0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162584d
BREAKING: Trump is expected to issue an executive order as soon as Thursday aimed at abolishing the Department of Education: WSJ [link removed]
ExceptionalAmerican605d
send me some USDC, I'll bet it all on yes for you.
ExceptionalAmerican605d
[link removed] Trump: "The Department of Education is a big con job. So they ranked the top 40 countries in the world. We‘re ranked number 40th, but we‘re ranked number 1 in one department: Costs per pupil ... I'd like it to be closed immediately"
SkillzThatKillz607d
Can’t merge a congressional created agency by EO. Any attempt to do so would be stopped by the courts
ExceptionalAmerican607d
THE DO Education can still fundamentally exist, but under the umbrella of another agency. Which the president has the full right to do. From Grok"In conclusion, under this specific scenario where the DOE is merely placed under another agency's umbrella for management purposes without changing its name or legal status, yes, Trump could sign an executive order to establish this new administrative relationship, which would count as fulfilling the criteria you've described for a "Yes" resolution."
ExceptionalAmerican607d
all Trump has to do is sign an EO and it fullfills: If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
CyberPunk608d
Let's gooooooooooo [link removed]
cryptodegennn608d
[link removed] "BREAKING: Elon Musk Announces the Department of Education no longer exists"
SkillzThatKillz611d
No, USAID was created by executive order
BigSeal611d
Like USAID lol
SkillzThatKillz612d
They can’t do that by law. The statute creates DOE. Trump can’t override a statute by destroying DOE. It is written in the law that DOE must exist. Thank you, you too
Richiepoo612d
It doesnt concern you that they could consolidate the department to handled by other agencies. Thats what they want to do. You seem beyond confident so good luck.
SkillzThatKillz613d
None of the Yeses have been able to explain why Senate democrats will vote to end DOE. Yes makes zero sense here. The EO later this week will say that Congress is needed to eliminate DOE and this market will move No to 95c or more
SkillzThatKillz614d
Even based on your own article this market will resolve to no
SkillzThatKillz614d
“ The draft order acknowledges that only Congress can shut down the department and instead directs the agency to begin to diminish itself, these people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.”
SkillzThatKillz614d
He can’t force it to cease all operations with an executive order. It exists by statute and can only be destroyed by statute.
Cikevor614d
BREAKING: President Trump places dozens of Department of Education employees on leave. [link removed]
0x3709ea1a8A93f741F28a522f7cd2C954166D3d7E-1730184833906614d
BREAKING! TRUMP TO SIGN AN EXECUTIVE ORDER TO DISMANTLING IT [link removed]
SkillzThatKillz614d
Yes, but a complete merger cannot be done without Congress. That doesn’t seem to be what Trump is contemplating here
0x91784d82fbe4543459ee85fc9809be185d70a2b614d
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
SkillzThatKillz614d
If that article is right, this market will resolve to “no”. “ The officials have discussed an executive order that would shut down all functions of the agency that aren’t written explicitly into statute or move certain functions to other departments.” They are talking about shutting down or moving PARTS of DOE, not all of it.
Toncar16614d
[link removed]
Toncar16614d
Trump Advisers Weigh Plan to Dismantle Education Department
SkillzThatKillz615d
Doesn’t he do that every year? And it never goes anywhere?
Slick617d
Rep. Thomas Massie Reintroduces ONE PAGE Bill To Terminate The Federal Dept. of Education
GeorgeFloyd666627d
im on an alt my real account is Wogforce
GeorgeFloyd666627d
ya trump will fo sho get rid of it
anahata108634d
so any news on this?
