Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
$14.2M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
$251.5K Vol.
3%
$14.2M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$251.5K Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
sprongberry40d
what? why??
pandatown194d
"truth"
jkfld34206d
military operation vs invasion
jkfld34206d
most of those those things happened in several rescue missions and bin ladden. 2 month later and no colony, and the president is a dumbass. I'm sorry you think a targeted military operation is like normandy but it's not. Get your brain checked.
FNU.225d
FUCK POLYMARKET
pandatown230d
U.S. military did establish control over portions of venezuela land water and space, the additional context should not have been added
FeeCollector241d
The distribution phase has begun. Top holders are dumping into the hype.
GTJ251d
invaded and retreated still classify as invasion, in what book boots on the ground does not mean invasion, entering with troops in a foreign country without permission is the definition of invasion, you can probably shoot and kill polymarket ceo and staff and not call it a crime too or break any human laws either
GTJ252d
They did not invade, just bombed, and airdropped troops on their soil, discombobulated some people, afterward CIA flew and and established US colony expansion plans, Trump calling himself president of Venezuela while kidnapping the true president.
Tian420256d
scam market
mbs33257d
Dilo sin llorar.
FeeCollector258d
Insiders just finished their accumulation. Retail is about to provide the exit liquidity.
Weirdo21260d
why not resolved to YES already? they invaded the land, had control over at least a portion of land, during that time captured the president with armed forces, kikked some..... what else do you need?
FeeCollector261d
The order book is being manipulated to look bearish while the flow stays net-positive.
FeeCollector261d
The 'sharp' money isn't arguing in the comments. They are hitting the ask.
ImNoob261d
UMA is shit
Chucklehuck262d
Polymarket have their heads in the sand if they think stuff like this wont come back to bite them.
x1x0263d
this one is dead
PaddyAlpha264d
Its dead
FeeCollector264d
smart money moved on this days ago, check the flow
skepticalkamui266d
s this one dead? I suggest YES holders collaborate on collecting evidence and there’s plenty of it. I’m sure comments here won’t affect UMA whales’ decisions anyway, but publicity might. And I’m pretty sure semantic games here don’t favor NO, even after that ridiculous “additional context.”
MEPP268d
I mean... [link removed]
getgravity268d
Today I come to you as a Venezuelan in need. Inflation and unemployment have left us with little to survive on. Any contribution you can make will help us eat and keep hope alive. May God bless your family with peace and health.,,,,,
MEPP269d
after iran [link removed]
StephenCaseyRea271d
So free [link removed]
jkfld34271d
pov polymarket: "those who think a 200 solider 2 hour operation/incursion/raid which was INTENDED to merely capture maduro that has no OCCUPATION, NO SUBUGATION, and it's still not clear if leadership their plays ball is fucking retarded, I can't believe we have to remind these retards what words mean and point them to wiki's list of invasions and hope they can learn english"
0xeA3f33A162e4e587ad3b01BE5cEE4A9ddf38dA5b-1766912013573271d
Trump say he is official President of Venezuela in his truth social media
rog80271d
"offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela" Land should not be needed for this to resolve to yes. This is such BS.
MEPP271d
im so ready,are you ? [link removed] hehe
stiflerlima271d
is oil considered any portion of Venezuelan land?
jkfld34272d
fuck you with your pumping
jkfld34272d
Fuck off
FNU.273d
invasion vs occupation
FNU.273d
polyscam /POL-ee-skam/[1] noun (informal, derogatory) 1. A situation or system involving many perceived forms of cheating or dishonesty, especially on online or crypto-based financial platforms where users feel repeatedly misled or unfairly treated. 2. A contemptuous nickname for a prediction-market or crypto platform that is believed to use multiple unfair practices, such as ambiguous rules, biased bet settlements, or opaque governance, leading to systematic losses for ordinary users. Origin: early 21st century; blend of “poly-” meaning “many” and “scam” meaning a fraudulent scheme.
Guacanarys273d
Will a second round ir airstrikes to take our Diosdado Cabello so the American Personnel in the American Embassy in Caracas can control Delcy without resistence count as an invasion or...?
LordProtector273d
pov polymarket: the invasion of venezuela does not alone qualify as an invasion of venezuela
asdfgfdhsg273d
Polymarket cooked me bruh
jkfld34274d
Then you haven't shown how: no obvious control (as if that was a necessary condition), INTEND, IN ORDER TO (absolutely not) CONQUEST, OCCUPATION, SUBJUGATION (they arn't subjugated, the VP may yet tell 'fuck you' to trump and if they don't it wasn't the RAID/INCURSION that just happened that caused that subujgation it was the threat of future action). Look at the wiki list of invasions, nothing like this raid/incursion on the list. Bin Laden's capture wasn't an invasion just because they went in and stole someone. A mere 200 people were on the ground for a mere 2 hours. FACE THE FACTS THIS WAS A RAID/INCURSION IT WAS **NOT** AN INVASION
rog80274d
I could agree with you but then we would both be wrong.
stiflerlima274d
Shame on you, polyscam.
jkfld34275d
Not invasion by force. A raid or incursion. No subjugation of a REGION as you cited in the dictionary. If Venezuela does what Trump wants it's not because of an occupying force or control but threat of future incursions, raids, or an actual invasion (which this wasnt). I know you don't like being wrong but you are.
rog80275d
Invasion by force and subjugation - By definition has alredy happened. The end goodbye.
jkfld34275d
Ah so english isn't even your first language and you dont know how to read it well! No wonder you think this is an INVASION. We don't need to change the dictionary. The operation itself didn't "subjugate the region" Venezuela may deny everything that Trump wants. And even if they acquiesce, they do so because of threat of future consequences not because there is a military force occupying making them do what they want.
stiflerlima275d
USA had invaded Venzuela and took its control!! Pay me now!
rog80275d
I don't know what you just said but that was not english. I alredy gave you the definition of invasion. Should we start changing the dictionary now so Polyscam can continue defrauding people?
jkfld34275d
Does Trump have an ACTUAL GUN to a significant number of people's head in Venezuela? So if you threaten everyone with mass death with an atomic bomb and they do what you want and you are subjugating them do you think you've INVADED THEM???? The invasion DID NOT already happen when they captured maduro kills trooops and military assets in the process?
rog80275d
If I hold a gun to your head and tell you do my bidding who is in control? The invasion alredy happened when they captured Maduro Killis troops and military assets in the process.
jkfld34275d
"Especially by conquest" So if Trump just threatened Venezuela and they did what they wanted, that woudl ahve ben an INVASION???
jkfld34275d
They have NOT NOT NOT taken control. What dont' you udnerstand. The Vice president is still in control and just because they are playing politics does not mean that the US controls Venezuela. So if the Vice president says 'fuck off' and doesn't do a THING that Trump wants then you still think they have control???
jkfld34275d
Oh so the US didn't INVADE twice, that's good to know.
rog80275d
Invade - (of an armed force or its commander) enter (a country or region) so as to subjugate or occupy it. Subjugate - bring under domination or control, especially by conquest. The US HAS taken control of Venezula after the invasion. Their resourses are being shipped to the US because we told them to.
jkfld34275d
no you didnt; read again
jkfld34275d
And yet it isn't clear they have control at all just because Trump says so.
jkfld34275d
No it doesn't count because: 1) they never INTENDED to control anything they just wanted Maduro; it wasn't 'in order to take control' (they just wanted Maduro) 2) taking a president is neither necessary nor sufficient for an 'invasion' (you can take a president when they are visiting another country) 3) It is disputed how much they control a country Venezuela could easily backtrack on all demands (that's what happens when you dont acctually 'invade'). if you step one boot in a country and set off a hand granade and then leave that is not an INVASIION, you need to try and rub you two iq points together and read the definitions: INTEND, IN ORDER TO, CONQUEST, OCCUPATION, SUBJUGATION. Go to wiki and see the list of invasions, look at all the press releases of the Bin Laden raid notice how no one was calling it an invasion. Just people because people are stupid today and dont know what words mean doesn't mean you get your money.
jkfld34275d
The brain cells to understand what 'invade' means
rog80275d
I didn't know Delta Force checked in with Venezula customs and immigration before they landed.
Talophex275d
We haven’t invaded yet, hope that helps!
x1x0275d
how this didn't resolve to yes? what am i missing?
Herakleios275d
Trump cancels second wave of attack as per Yahoo Finance. Thanks polyscam.
rog80275d
America Invaded Venezula, took out it's president and are now in control of the country. Yet this is not resolved. It seems because the US acomplished this in 2 hours that dosen't count for some reason.
LordProtector275d
Guess what they kidnapped Maduro to establish control.
datard275d
TRUMP: CAPTURING MADURO WASN'T HARD DECISION *TRUMP: WILL START HITTING CARTELS ON LAND
Malganis275d
in the great ranking of military offensive this cat fart doesn't even register
totalenergies275d
No you apparently didn’t do you even speak English
jkfld34275d
no you didnt
jkfld34275d
Control of the transition government is not yet established and is not in any way a necessary condition for an 'invasion'. I'm sorry you don't know what words mean.
Guacanarys275d
The most EPIC military offensive took place to extract the sitting president and gain effective control of the 'transition' government (with the threat of another strike if they don't do exactly as told). How s this market not solved ?
totalenergies275d
You didn’t get it
jkfld34275d
New polymarket contract..."percent of YES that are fucking stupid"
jkfld34275d
so NOT to kidnap someone
jkfld34275d
(of an armed force or its commander) enter (a country or region) so as to subjugate or occupy it.
totalenergies275d
New polymarket contract… “will polymarket’s Trustpilot rating be above 1.3 at any point during 2026”
stiflerlima275d
What does invade means? You thief!!! Polyscam
jkfld34275d
And this market which is about INVASION certainly does not resolve to 'yes'
Weirdo21275d
YES. FTW.
Weirdo21275d
President Trump has stated the U.S. will "run" Venezuela, suggesting a sustained military presence. These actions, reported widely across news outlets like CNN and NPR, indicate that markets predicting U.S. military intervention by the specified dates have likely resolved to "Yes" for deadlines post-January 2026.
jkfld34275d
jfld34: what are you supid? 1archangel: Yes HAHA!
jkfld34275d
It's too bad so many people listened to Trump talking about illegals 'invading' the US. People are all now stupider for the low bar and actually think leaving a country with a mere threat to the country (that no one knows will acquiesce) having no territory, no military control of the change of the government and not a single military person in the country) is some how an 'INVASION'? Guys go to college you'll learn things there.
SaturnStormCube275d
Yes
jkfld34275d
The US dictates to all sorts of countries policies by threat. Mexico, Europe, Asia, Africa. That doesn't mean it's an invsaion. What are you stupid?
SaturnStormCube276d
The White House said Venezuela’s interim government must take orders from the US, despite Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodriguez, insisting no foreign power is in charge.
SaturnStormCube276d
During conversations led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Trump administration told Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez that the country must cut ties with China, Iran, Russia and Cuba, and agree to partner exclusively with the US on oil production, the officials said.
SaturnStormCube276d
“This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America,” he wrote.
SaturnStormCube276d
"We control the energy resources, and we tell the regime, you're allowed to sell the oil so long as you serve America's national interest, you're not allowed to sell it if you can't serve America's national interest," Vance said.
