Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
$2.3M Vol.Ends 31 Dec 2026
December 31
$1.1M Vol.
12%▲3%October 31
$874.9K Vol.
3%
$2.3M Vol.Ends 31 Dec 2026
$1.1M Vol.
$874.9K Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. Any calendar day (EET) during which the ceasefire is in effect (including the first day of the ceasefire) will count towards the 10-day total. The required 10 day period will end at 11:59 PM EET on the 10th day (inclusive). If a qualifying ceasefire goes into effect prior to this market’s end date, this market will remain open until the ceasefire is no longer in effect, or until the 10 calendar days have been reached. A ceasefire is considered no longer in effect when a consensus of credible reporting indicates the general suspension of hostilities has substantively ended across the primary theater. Temporary or technical lapses or expiration of a formal ceasefire term, isolated incidents, localized violations, or accusations alone will not invalidate the ceasefire provided the general suspension of hostilities across the primary theater continues. Where official government statements conflict with a consensus of credible field reporting, the reporting will take precedence over the government statements. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources. Examples of qualifying Ceasefires: April 8, 2026 US–Iran ceasefire: The United States and Iran publicly announced and implemented a mutually agreed ceasefire framework intended to broadly halt direct military hostilities between the two countries. Despite subsequent maritime confrontations, alleged violations, isolated retaliatory strikes, and disputes regarding compliance, the broader ceasefire framework continued to function and widescale fighting across the primary theater did not resume. November 27, 2024 Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire: Israel and Hezbollah implemented a broadly operative ceasefire framework brokered through international mediators that substantially reduced hostilities across southern Lebanon and northern Israel, including the effective halt of Israel’s major ground offensive into Lebanon and a significant reduction in Hezbollah rocket fire. Although the ceasefire was not formally announced through a single joint declaration by both parties and public statements differed in framing and characterization, a consensus of credible reporting confirmed the arrangement had been mutually agreed and implemented in practice. Despite continued isolated strikes, alleged violations, and disputes regarding compliance, credible reporting broadly treated the ceasefire as remaining operational and widescale fighting across the primary theater of the conflict did not resume. Examples of non qualifying Ceasefires: November 24, 2023 Israel–Hamas humanitarian pause: Although it was a mutually agreed and publicly announced broad suspension of hostilities across Gaza, the ceasefire framework remained in effect for only approximately 7 days before wide-scale fighting resumed, failing the required 10-calendar-day duration requirement. Ceasefire violations prior to November 30, would not have invalidated the ceasefire. July 22, 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative: Although Russia and Ukraine entered into internationally brokered agreements governing grain exports and reducing risks to commercial shipping in the Black Sea, the arrangement did not constitute a general suspension of direct military engagement across the primary theater of the war. Hostilities continued across Ukraine throughout the duration of the agreement and the arrangement applied only to specific categories of activity and geographic areas. May 2023 Sudan ceasefires (SAF–RSF): Although the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) publicly agreed to multiple internationally brokered ceasefires, a consensus of credible reporting indicated that the general suspension of hostilities across the primary theater never substantively took effect and large-scale fighting broadly continued throughout the ceasefire periods. While some temporary reductions in violence and localized humanitarian access reportedly occurred in certain areas, artillery fire, airstrikes, urban combat, troop movements, and offensive operations continued across major parts of Sudan almost immediately after implementation. Credible reporting broadly treated the ceasefires as having failed or collapsed in practice despite technically remaining in force on paper.
pink.impala35d
"WITH THIS MONEY, ALL GERMAN PENSIONERS COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL €100 PER MONTH FOR SIX YEARS": 👎Co-chair of the AfD Tino Chrupalla criticized Berlin's spending on supporting Ukraine.
eugenewp36d
❗️Режим прекращения огня вводится с 5 сентября до 8 сентября. Подразделения ВСУ получили соответствующий приказ, — пишет Украинская Правда ВСУ получили приказ соблюдать режим тишины на линии боевого соприкосновения на время визита представителей Трампа Уиткоффа и Кушнера с 00:00 5 сентября до 23:59 8 сентября, сообщает "Украинская правда" со ссылкой на источники. Официальных подтверждений этому пока нет.
pink.impala43d
In reality they gave their lives for U.S. project of extending Russia.
pink.impala43d
DeepCope on day of rememberance of ukraine defenders: Eternal glory to the fallen Heroes, and thank you for your protection! They gave their lives so that ours would not change.
12beduins60d
ukros so naive and dumb
0x30ab…76d
The thing is Russia is not at stake, he could just go home
Akira77777d
Russia could use nuclear bombs as a last resort. Western countries think Putin doesn't have the balls, but in reality, he does. He just doesn't want to go down in history as the man who used a nuclear bomb. But when choosing where all of Russia is at stake, how you go down in history doesn't matter anymore; the important thing is not being remembered as the man who lost the war.
perps-01sqko8577d
Russia is losing. Hopefully sooner than later Putin will admit his defeat
0x41e65a67d2af2ec82688F4127A43fb92c70788f4-1774207194096109d
How so sure
Charismeh126d
Why was the last one voted Yes? Lol
illumination128d
how was the market resolved in an unfair manner?
nelemeta128d
Putin just said that there is no need to stop hostilities while negotiating peace😶
Th3-K1ng128d
Very good news
lord.nito128d
good news
Rex416128d
Ceasefire incoming....
Fridius131d
Never again bet on this market.
Fridius131d
This market? Never again. Careful here guys.
Roeman132d
Trumps personal lawyer is not going to do anything to hurt the trump family
PavloUkraintsev137d
People, we need to send a letter to Todd Blanche in LinkedIn. He is the Acting Attorney General of the United States in department of justice. This SCAMMarket should be closed.
Bromley86137d
Why would anyone bet on a market with such inconsistent rule application?
Prof.Money-Exterminator138d
Are the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire(s) this year being examples of qualifying Ceasefires by new rules? Xd
12beduins139d
Its too many rules and text why not have it more simpler?
JosephTrump142d
terrible volumes. The rules are fine, but now no one wants to deal with you.
Bashiba144d
Damn clowns, you already admitted "yes" in another similar market. Or was it "no"? Idiots, scammers.
Gluckyklucky144d
No, this market has more strict rules - 10 days ceasefire need to qualify Yes. So, it is hard to resolve some three days holiday ceasefire as Yes and more hard to scam No holders.
homerkhan145d
I'm not buy this market. i'm afraid.
PubgWithoutSaving145d
we will boycot your scam
LevantLeverage146d
typical notard comment
Poivre147d
Cry more, the market correctly resolved
johngotti147d
Before you bet, ask yourself this: if they resolved the previous market in a totally unfair manner, what's to stop them from doing it again? The rules of the market don't mean anything, because they can break them and there's nothing you can do about it. They'll keep scamming just because they can. That is until someone loses big and sues all their asses
HerrMayer147d
scammers
Squeeshy147d
going to scam once again?
