Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
$33.8M Vol.Ends 31 Dec 2026
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$375.7K Vol.
96%▼1%October 31
$1.7M Vol.
85%▼2%November 15
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64%▲1%December 31
$1M Vol.
57%▲1%
$33.8M Vol.Ends 31 Dec 2026
$375.7K Vol.
$1.7M Vol.
$108.4K Vol.
$535.7K Vol.
$1M Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
WhaleWatch-9036251m
EasyGoingA is up 7,88% on their 12780,04 Dollars bet on December 31 with outcome No. Current value: 13787,04 Dollars. When you see returns like that, you pay attention.
KILLUMINAT110h
💪
pilipro316h
Wrong
classified17h
probably nothing
filaretou17h
Finish the job 🚀
iNeedMoreDollars18h
Something might be cookng tonight ngl
pink.impala20h
A senior Israeli official told Channel 12 that Israel will not launch a preemptive strike against Iran before the October 27 legislative election.
adasol8d
Trump’s top security aides hold secret Camp David talks on Iran, Yemen — Axios US President Donald Trump’s top national security officials met secretly at Camp David to discuss next steps in the Iran war and the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Axios reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. Vice President JD Vance chaired the meeting at the presidential retreat, according to the report.
Glicha8d
you can see that I actually started trading only 4 months ago. I did opened this account a year ago though but had no way to deposit money in it
Glicha8d
if trump says, then he's about to sign another surrender deal soon
adasol10d
and one more thing to settle about volume. Your account was created one year earlier than me, how come your volume is so low? afraid to lose money so you do not dare to trade frequently, right?
adasol10d
losing 34 usd on a daily profit of 300 usd seems fine for me, but 34 usd seems to be a big deal for you. Btw, is my daily profit equals to 1/10 of your total profit from 2025, loser?
Glicha10d
i dont think so. your volume is 48M$. anyway, in 1.5hrs it will resolve to YES so i suggest you to dispute
adasol10d
we can look at the P&L of our accounts and we will know who is the real loser here ^^
Glicha10d
bc u lose if u dont dispute
adasol10d
you again, why do I have to dispute? :-"
Glicha10d
dispute
adasol10d
Trump says developments in Iran coming ‘very soon’ US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that developments in Iran would be seen “very soon,” while describing the US campaign against the country as a “total military victory.” “We have been there for six months. We lost 18 ... but they lost 4,500,” Trump said. “Very soon you’ll see things happening, very soon.”
RealRonnieTyler11d
They said ignore'em. They said they'll only get excited and post more 💩 if u give them attention, but f it, I'll bite. What wasn't true about that statement? The f u on about u loon?
adasol14d
Explosions are being heard in the city of Sirik on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz.
totalenergies16d
Have to open up a beer for this one… speech is great
pink.impala16d
Gods chosen gloaters and murderers
pink.impala16d
If i was a ### i would be absolutely horrified that bibi is speaking in my name, thankfully im not a ### doe
pink.impala16d
Benjamin Netanyahu: ‘On October 7th, Khamas monsters slaughtered Holocaust survivors. They burnt babies alive in front of their parents, beheaded our men, and raped our women.’
hyper-liquid-xyz17d
Iran’s President Pezeshkian used his address to the UN General Assembly to reject restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear program and reiterate Tehran’s opposition to a US military presence in the Middle East. Netanyahu set to speak at the UN tomorrow.
pink.impala17d
All israel do is murder and lie and also gloat about it
hyper-liquid-xyz20d
Israelis will let the Iran-affiliated Houthis take Saudi Arabia?
adasol22d
Netanyahu says Israel will topple Iran's regime Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would topple Iran's establishment and still had work to complete against Tehran and its regional allies, according to remarks published on Thursday by his official account. “The desire by Iran and its proxies to destroy the State of Israel has not disappeared. It has simply weakened,” Netanyahu said. “We have done most of the work, but there is still work to complete, and we will complete it,” he said.
yungsoleimani24d
Nopp
0xc1dB6A1F893830B7f856B1023A8655959056838D-176124617827524d
TA in Tehran!
12beduins24d
The ###s has silenced him most likely he sometimes had valid critique bout israel THATS STRICTLY VERBOTEN
12beduins24d
What happend to Abdoohl awesome comments? Wheres Abdoohl??
WaterFloww25d
great debt will be yours
yungsoleimani25d
Are you illiterate perhaps?
iNeedMoreDollars25d
arguing with yourself award goes to you
pink.impala25d
hes entitled, dont be antisemitic man
yungsoleimani25d
You guys are so right simulated run means war is UPON US ALL, please mog orderbook and demolish Y so i can get cheaper shares.
0x30ab…25d
Is he a politician or why is he making political statements?
adasol25d
Israel atomic energy chief says country will act again if necessary against Iran threat Israel will act again if necessary to ensure its survival in the face of threats from Iran, the head of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission said, adding that the country would not “stand idly by.” “A public threat from the radical regime of the ayatollahs in Iran to destroy the State of Israel is something we cannot ignore,” Moshe Edri said. “Israel cannot, and will not, stand idly by in the face of such a threat. We have acted to ensure our survival, and we will do so again if necessary.”
OnlyInGodWeTrust26d
Take care brother
RealRonnieTyler26d
Amen to that, brother. That regime is way over time and belongs on history's junkyard. My family in Tehran wish for nothing more than to hear the sweet sounds of Israeli and US planes and drones hunting basij, SEPA etc. Bibi is legend 🫡 God bless
0x30ab…26d
Maybe, they have a reason to be actually afraid of Iran now, Interceptors getting sparse
ithinkthisisgod27d
at this point buying yes is free money
0xDcEf6C9FdA1CF0B7e6170DC7Ea2D5E55373bfF3A-176008617171630d
"Houthis seize key Red Sea island, complete takeover of Bab el-Mandeb area, says official" - Times Of Israel News
pink.impala30d
So bibi is literally pure evil, and now he just admitted that pure evil struck on both 911 n oct 7.. interesting 🤔
pink.impala30d
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: On September 11th, America was hit by pure evil. On October 7th, Israel was hit by it again.
OnlyInGodWeTrust31d
Israel does not target civilians. I'd rather spend months in the safe room, as long as the Iranian regime is destroyed.
qizhan132d
imaging your apartment under the bomb
iutwpfal32d
Shush
0xBbBD1B0780d8B58DDEfa37B3C4cea3835a9cc023-178012292035532d
Jordan is near…
EasyGoingA32d
Does anyone else ever worry when the top holders you’re betting against are up A TON in polymarket?!?
Shilu4532d
You should buy Oct. Because of elections in Israel
Car34d
WAR
GAMBLEMAX34d
Largest surprise, military-wide readiness exercise since October 7th massacre involving the entire IDF: IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir launched a surprise, military-wide readiness exercise involving the entire IDF- from the Air Force and special forces to the General Staff. The timing, just before the Jewish holidays. IDF's Zamir has made it clear: readiness for a surprise attack a top priority.
503881318535d
Aug 31 is already over. 🤡🤡 However there is always a chance, with CNN claiming Iran missiles at US ships recently and Jewish holidays coming up soon. US would want to TACO but Iran likely won't let them.
yungsoleimani37d
sorry not sorry man
yungsoleimani37d
yopp
Konfucious37d
Mate literally just read the entire rules section, and look when the market was created. Also dont use AI só much, it’s wrong often.
12beduins38d
🤡 🤡 🤡
12beduins38d
🤡
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-176422619240238d
This dispute concerns the Polymarket market “Israel × Iran ceasefire continues through…”, which is priced at 100% YES as of August 31. This does not match the rules or the verified events. The ceasefire ends if either Israel or Iran conducts a qualifying military action. Qualifying actions include air strikes and surface‑to‑surface missile launches, and the rules clearly state that interception does not matter — the launch itself qualifies. These qualifying actions already happened after market creation: • March 18, 2026 – Iran → Israel: Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel. Ballistic missiles are explicitly defined as qualifying surface‑to‑surface missile strikes. • March 22–27, 2026 – Israel → Iran: Israel carried out multiple airstrikes inside Iran, including strikes in Tehran and at a uranium facility in Yazd. Airstrikes are explicitly listed as qualifying military actions. Both governments confirmed these events, and they were consistently reported by credible outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, and Al Jazeera. Since qualifying actions occurred from both sides, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Therefore, the market cannot resolve to YES and must resolve to NO under the stated rules.
52centis38d
Could you please tell me what date these mutual launches were? Are there any news links?
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-176422619240238d
It does not make sense for this market to be priced at 100% YES on August 31st. According to the market rules, even a single qualifying military action between Israel and Iran ends the ceasefire and forces a NO resolution. Both countries have already carried out qualifying actions: Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, and Israel conducted airstrikes inside Iran. These events are confirmed by both governments and credible news sources. Because qualifying actions have clearly occurred, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. A 100% YES price therefore does not reflect the rules or the documented events. It is likely caused by traders misunderstanding the rules or assuming intercepted missiles do not count, even though the rules explicitly state that the launch itself qualifies. Conclusion: The current 100% YES pricing is not aligned with the market rules. Under those rules, the market should resolve to NO.
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-176422619240238d
Based on the market rules and verified events, this market should resolve to NO. A qualifying military action has already occurred between Israel and Iran after the market’s creation, which ends the ceasefire. Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory. Ballistic missiles are explicitly defined as surface‑to‑surface missile strikes. Even if intercepted, the launch itself qualifies because it was directly aimed at Israel. Israel also carried out airstrikes inside Iran. Airstrikes are explicitly listed as qualifying military actions, and these strikes impacted Iranian territory. Both governments and multiple credible outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirmed these events. The rules state that the ceasefire ends if either country conducts a qualifying military action. Since qualifying actions occurred from both sides, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Conclusion: The conditions for a YES resolution are not met. The market should resolve to NO.
Cerco38d
BREAKING: Netanyahu says Israel is working to bring down the Iranian regime and could attack Iran at any moment.
Tangovicious39d
Regarding if august 31 is yes or no?
fudc39d
The details are under review.
