Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
$43.7K Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
$43.7K Vol.
66%
$43.7K Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$43.7K Vol.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate. A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own. Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify. If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.
DontTrustMe2d
So in short: the AfD is confident regarding its ability to form a government in Sachsen-Anhalt, the SPD has given up on any attempt to form an alternative government and it is rumoured that a behind close doors agreement between the AfD and some dissident CDU members might have been reached.
DontTrustMe4d
Not an expert in German politics but surely today's vote (the election of Tobias Rausch as president of Saxony-Anhalt state's parliament) bodes really well for the hopes of Ulrich Siegmun of being able to form a government right? The fact that 4 CDU representatives didn't follow their own party line opens the door for a functioning AfD minority government I would imagine?
Kaiser188510d
Contrary to the no comments below it looks like Siegmund has a plan and will try to get elected in December using floating votes of disgruntled CDU members and BSW - should that not work the 3 time asking a single majority will be enough for him to take it. Exciting times
Anthest31d
Siegmund has rejected both the idea of a minority coalition, and a coalition with the BSW. The only realistic choice that remains, is to commit to a snap election, in accordance with Article 65(2) of the constitution of Saxony-Anhalt. If the first two ballots for the election of Minister-President were to fail, the landtag would get the choice whether to dissolve the current parliament, thus causing a new election, or elect someone with a mere plurality.
JustTheFacts34d
It's over, the Nos have it
Compound-5734d
AfD projected to win 39 seats not enough to overcome the others, Sachsen Anhalt was their only chance to govern
GrokBotTeam36d
wolfmoon buying lots of NO to keep the % down lol
