$3.8M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
This event is over. Polymarket is confirming the result, so new buys are closed. Winning shares pay $1 each when it settles; you can still sell what you hold.
$1.7M Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Roeman1d
“ Hamas signs an actionable, step-by-step framework for decommissioning its weapons, developed with the support of Nickolay Mladenov and mediators from Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, and the United States. Implementation remains a critical next step.” insane how this is not yes
Vanquish17d
2.45B$ reconstruction plan for gaza is in the works, including disarmament (after the election obviously) : see Axios headline
Vanquish44d
You're probably right. But still, the "Hamas's commitment to disarm" will no longer be "contingent" on Israël's approval to retreat, if they start giving away their weapons nonetheless.
Roeman44d
You made 100 bucks, pipe down 🤣
UsualSuspects44d
-$600 ☠️
UsualSuspects44d
Yes, that is exactly right. Hamas must unconditionally surrender or surrender under terms acceptable to the other relevant parties. @LJa7io23MCv954j's hypothetical involving the Russian war is spot on.
Roeman46d
33 shares 🤣
UsualSuspects47d
The YES holders have no ground to stand on. The market spells it out in plain English that an agreement to disarm cannot be "contingent on future conditions". So anything short of an unconditional surrender by Hamas would not qualify.
Roeman48d
Exactly, the word israel isn’t even mentioned in the rules
Roeman48d
Thats not what they said, they simply said that they want Israel to be held to the promises they made under the deal. In your world this market would only become yes if hamas unilaterally unconditionally disarms
greengasper49d
There is no deal tho ? And how are they supposed to disarm? Explain to me what reasonable mechanism was proposed and rejected by Hamas. They formulated the exact mechanism, but Netanyahu rejected the entire process which has nothing to do with what this market
LJa7io23MCv954j49d
There is no deal, though. Polymarket explained it clearly. Why aren't they disarming right now? Because their agreement is contingent on Israel's agreement. Without it, it doesn't come into effect. If Putin said "I'll stop the war once Ukraine gives me Kyiv" and Ukraine said "no way," then Putin has not agreed to stop the war. What's unclear about that?
greengasper49d
Hamas did not say anything. It simply agreed to the 20-point plan that Israel had already accepted. Point 16 stated that the IDF would withdraw according to "standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization. They have now formulated a more detailed implementation plan based on that framework. Hamas accepted it Israel did not
greengasper49d
We could understand it if they had no knowledge of the considerations surrounding this specific geopolitical market. But at the very least, they need to abide by their own rules. The rules state that plans contingent on future conditions do not count unless they constitute a formal policy. This has now become their formal policy, and they have never retracted it. Even after Israel rejected the plan, they officially reiterated their commitment to the disarmament plan. The plan requires for exemple the entry of the ISF. What happens if Israel itself blocks this process? And how is Hamas supposed to disarm without a formally agreed upon mechanism? The commitments and the outline of the agreement were already established in the 20-point plan. What changed is that Hamas accepted the disarmament provision and that is precisely what this market is about. If Israel rejected the very deal it had already signed, that is not what this market is asking about
LJa7io23MCv954j49d
You guys really can't make the difference between "we agree to disarm" and "we agree to disarm after Israel withdraw Gaza"?
Car49d
yeah, we got rugged by 2 Polymarket team members in a NYC office, who don't even know where Gaza is located on a map
greengasper52d
The board of Polymarket needs to review itself this is a ridiculous market. A month ago, the real odds that Hamas would ever agree to disarm were less than 5% for everyone, even for decision makers in Israel, because disarmament is their primary political symbol. Then in a major breakthrough, they did agree, which reflects the true spirit of this market. Their disarmament agreement was included in a deal that Israel is trying hard to block. So, if Israel is trying to block the disarmament process itself, why should this market be named Will Hamas agree to Disarm? It should be rather titled: Will Hamas Disarmement process begin ? The market will definitely resolve to Yes but I'm not sure when. Either way polymarket should stop adding rediculous updates
Roeman53d
The point when polymarket added israel to the mix, even though they are never mentioned in the rules it completely ruined this market. The only way this market is yes now is if hamas says “we will disarm regardless if israel bombs the entire country”
rickyvaughn53d
Correct. Israel has already retreated to the Yellow Line in preparation for letting the NCGA and ISF into Gaza. Israel has already signaled they agree to the plan. Once Hamas hands over 1 weapon this will resolve YES
Vanquish53d
"wouldn't be enough" ? If they actually start surrendering weapons in 30d, even without formal Israeli approval, it sounds moot since we're talking about actual disarmament, we'd be way past the announcements or commitments defined in the rules so far, no?
Roeman54d
We could be seeing progress… in as little as 30 days, hopefully starting to take some of the weapons out,” Kushner tells Fox News while in Tel Aviv. Wouldn’t be enough for polymarket if they actually start disarming
ragutwo55d
waiting for what is written in the rules to happen. Hamas already agreed. Only Israel was holding up, but now they may be close. Whether it happens in reality or not is separate from what the rules need
RAJAGO59d
Well said
adasol59d
This is just political theater for both Trump and Netanyahu. Trump scores by coming up with a peace plan for Gaza. Netanyahu scores by defying US plan and acting tough for the coming election at year end. If Trump is serious about the Gaza peace plan, he would have criticized Netanyahu when Netanyahu defied him. Nothing happens, because both men just perform their roles to the world. And Hamas would never disarm if Israel did not back down, Israel never back down until after the PM election at the end of October this year. So, NO is safe until November
dekelj60d
i know
MrMelonHead62d
Read the updated context. This market doesn’t require Hamas actually disarming.
Glicha62d
מזל שהעולם מלא באהבלים ואפשר לנצל את זה
dekelj62d
תקנו לא המחיר ברצפה אין סיכוי שזה קורה
Spirit-LT63d
Lol
Roeman63d
So gullible.
Spirit-LT63d
Netanyahu: “Israel rejects the 15-point Peace Council document on Gaza. The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal of troops until Hamas is genuinely disarmed. We are talking about real disarmament, not a fake one.”
Spirit-LT63d
Gg, bro. Netanyahu: “Israel rejects the 15-point Peace Council document on Gaza. The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal of troops until Hamas is genuinely disarmed. We are talking about real disarmament, not a fake one.”
Roeman64d
It was about rules, which have been fulfilled
Spirit-LT64d
This will never happen. Look into the issue in more detail. This isn’t about logic or about what we would like to happen.
Glicha64d
let him lose
rickyvaughn64d
Israel just needs to agree to the framework as per the clarification. Once the 14-day ceasefire starts it's a YES
Roeman65d
That’s how it works when you agree to disarm, as they did
Spirit-LT66d
I’m curious what the YES holders are hoping for. That the terrorists will lay down their arms? Or that Israel will be the first to make concessions?
rickyvaughn68d
Now that Israel has demanded different terms it may complicate things. We will see. Good luck
yen4u68d
I kinda doubt they ever agree but we shall see
rickyvaughn68d
Israel will agree to the roadmap before 2027. That's all that is needed now. BoP has updated Congress on the terms so it's only a matter of time
yen4u68d
Great bond Lonfus. We're winning this shit 🦔
ThanksGivingTurkey100169d
Bond good
Zenef69d
good
NOIZYUV69d
Genocide in Spain: at least 88 Moroccan refugees died so for
Roeman69d
They did.
ZombieAndreotti70d
But daddy Trump said otherwise
brk201670d
This is as clear as it can be, they did not release official statement about disarming.
ZombieAndreotti70d
Thank you, appreciate it, have a great day
Glicha70d
the final review won't be No because we're not in December 31. The final res will be "too early"
ZombieAndreotti70d
What happens is the final review is No? Does the market close as no or does the review counter go back to zero?
Glicha70d
And?
Roeman70d
Israel agrees to stop bombing hamas from Sunday.
Roeman71d
Even the clarification disagrees with you, they somehow added a rule that israel has to agree to the deal.
Roeman71d
The rules are clear yes, it is a yes. In no world would hamas ever say “we will disarm regardless if israel bombs us to oblivion”
VNINVESTOR71d
i just gonna copy Car so suck on no holder
Glicha71d
keep believing Trump's nonsense
Norco6671d
Never vote in these kinds of markets I learned that lesson with the iran one
MEPP71d
Trumps words: “As disarmament is completed, Israeli forces will withdraw” Hamas says israel must withdraw first then disarm (which is hard to believe they would ever give up its weapons)
whale6971d
"plans contingent on future conditions...will not be considered" the rules are very clear, i tried to warn you. could have sold at 90 instead of arguing with me
LJa7io23MCv954j71d
Had Hamas said "I'm willing to disarm when hell freezes over," it would never have been a Yes, right? Because saying "I'm willing to disarm once Israel agrees to the Palestinian state" isn't so far away.
ragutwo71d
yeah but rules don't say anything about Israel. It just says Hamas has to agree to do it. Whatever maybe I am wrong on this one
yen4u71d
Agree that new clarif team has been 🔥🔥🔥 though. This was another great clarif imo
yen4u71d
Conditional agreement is fine if all parties agree. If all parties don't agree it's not an agreement.
ragutwo71d
New PM review team is much better than old one. Most clarifications make sense now. But this clarification really doesn't make sense to me, or perhaps I am missing something. I don't read anything in the rules about Israel having to agree. All agreements I know of have conditions, but they are still agreements.
Roeman71d
But you are right, I know how polymarket can turn a clear yes into a no.
Roeman71d
Because its yes.
0x619DC40631C5f78606d17Ed1528d62898096B31C-176791576346171d
Bro it was 90 why you didn't sold? Answer? Greed
UsualSuspects71d
"On July 30, 2026, Hamas agreed to the Board of Peace roadmap, which includes a commitment to disarm sequenced with Israeli commitments. As of the time of this clarification, Israel has not agreed to that roadmap. Absent agreement by all relevant parties, Hamas's commitment to disarm is contingent, does not constitute a formal policy announcement, and therefore does not qualify."
Spirit-LT71d
Bro, this is unreal. Don’t lock in your loss. Hamas stressed that its willingness to discuss the issue of heavy weapons as part of an agreement was conditional on a number of requirements being met. These include: a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, the start of reconstruction, the activation of the administrative committee, the deployment of international protection forces, the disarmament of armed gangs and paramilitary groups, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon: “The possibility of establishing a Palestinian state no longer exists after October 7.”
ThanksGivingTurkey100171d
they havent disarm for 20 years bro
Roeman71d
Market turned from announcement to actual disarming, this site is a joke.
zthunderfury71d
o7
Car71d
well 5 months left I guess
Roeman71d
Yeah obviously, hamas isn’t going to say, regardless what you do to us we will disarm, it’s ridiculous and would make this market no from creation.
MEPP71d
Aazi Hamed, a member of the Hamas negotiating delegation, in an interview with Al Jazeera, about the agreement: We will not take any step regarding disarmament before Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip. We will not take any step regarding disarmament before Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip (attached is the quote in Arabic from Al Jazeera - AA).
mrnomoremrniceguy71d
you talk nonsense.. HAMAS: "The inclusion of the issue of heavy weapons ... is linked to and conditional upon." The market: plans contingent on future conditions ... will not be considered. Israel not even said a word about this agreement. You only rely on donald trump
Roeman71d
Just remove uma at this point.
Iax71d
THANKS FOR THE FREE BANDO ENJOY UR FILLS
MEPP71d
Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said in an interview with CNN that Hamas must be disarmed "for real" and that "appearance solutions" are not acceptable for Israel
Roeman71d
Yeah its not. That would only be hamas making an announcement that they will disarm when israel withdraws, not when they make a deal pledging to disarm if the deal is fulfilled
whale6972d
its not my logic its what the rules say
katbot72d
In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes, and hamas will never disarm
Roeman72d
With your logic this market could only be yes if hamas disarms without a reason or deal.
whale6972d
"hamas just said that if israel doesn’t adhere to the deal that they won’t disarm" - so the deal is contingent on future conditions then? think you just made my point
Roeman72d
Well hamas confirmed it.
Glicha72d
Is there anyone on this planet that believes Trump's nonsense?
yen4u72d
Rules were different, but also both the US and Iran agreed to the deal. Israel was not a signatory to this deal. I think this market will go Yes later anyway but it's crazy if it resolves right now imo.
SheepToken72d
😂
Roeman72d
Did you think hamas would ever say “we will disarm for no reason regardless of what israel does” 😂😂
Roeman72d
Yeah no, they have agreed to disarm under a deal, this deal will now go in effect, hamas just said that if israel doesn’t adhere to the deal that they won’t disarm.
whale6972d
they've agreed based on israel implementing future conditions which is explicitly ruled out as the basis for resolution to this market. seems pretty clear to me
Roeman72d
This isn’t about if hamas has disarment, simply agreeing will suffice, which they have.
Arman272d
also there was a trump agree to troop withdrawal market that was clarified y even tho it was conditional
Arman272d
-1500 dumbfuq disputer
whale6972d
'Plans contingent on future conditions' ... 'will not be considered'. the probability has certainly increased significantly but this should not resolve to 'yes' at this point
Roeman72d
Called disarming in stages.
whale6972d
but only if israel withdraws from gaza amongst other conditions......
Roeman72d
Hamas has announced that it has agreed in principle to a draft roadmap for the phased disarmament of armed groups in Gaza, marking what could be a significant development in efforts to end the conflict.
jozeff72d
Senior Hamas official Aziz Hamed: "We will not take any disarmament steps before Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip."
Mikelious72d
Hamas declares: There will be no progress on an agreement unless the following conditions are met: - A complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. - The achievement of an early recovery phase. - The entry of the administrative committee. Reconstruction. - A guarantee of the right to self determination. - The establishment of an independent Palestinian state. - The protection of civilians' rights. Not happening.
whale6972d
Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’s negotiating delegation, told Al Jazeera that the group’s implementation of the agreement will be dependent on Israel fulfilling its commitments. “Hamas will not implement any step of the Gaza peace deal if the Israeli occupation forces do not fulfil their obligations under the agreement,” he said.
0xC2661D16350ED82d5C2292294BAa01851fB68187-177712259720972d
*Hamas in an official statement* *On the emerging outline*: "Israel's commitment to stop the killing and end the aggression is the basis and the first step towards implementation, and the beginning of formulating the framework and timetable for what was agreed. It should be emphasized that the implementation of the second phase of the agreement depends on Israel's commitment to implement all the clauses of the first phase" Since the "ceasefire" began in October, over *1,200* people have been killed in the Gaza Strip
0xC2661D16350ED82d5C2292294BAa01851fB68187-177712259720972d
Hamas literally just clarified that their willingness is only IF Israel “stops its aggression”…
mrnomoremrniceguy72d
HAMAS: "The inclusion of the issue of heavy weapons ... is linked to and conditional upon." The market: plans contingent on future conditions ... will not be considered. So its a no. THank you for your attention to this matter!
mrnomoremrniceguy72d
Hamas and the Palestinian factions extend their greetings and appreciation to our steadfast people in the Gaza Strip, and affirm their commitment to continuing to work together on this path for the sake of our people and to safeguard their rights.‘
mrnomoremrniceguy72d
„contingent upon” In a statement, Hamas confirms it agrees with the second phase of the ceasefire framework, but emphasises it will only give up ‘heavy weapons’ (rockets, ATGMs etc.), and it is contingent upon a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, reconstruction, and the cessation of all forms of aggression This is a heavy no...
