Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
$2.9M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
$65.7K Vol.
14%
$2.9M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$65.7K Vol.
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
0xC2661D16350ED82d5C2292294BAa01851fB68187-177712259720973d
From Ynet - Israel most read news source
0xC2661D16350ED82d5C2292294BAa01851fB68187-177712259720973d
Israel and Hamas on the way to an agreement: "There is a formula for the weapons issue" The Israeli and Gazan media report significant progress in talks on moving to the next stage in the Gaza Strip, and the Peace Board confirms it. According to a source who spoke to Ynet, understandings have been reached regarding the "delivery and storage" of the weapons, and the Palestinians reported that an announcement is expected today: "The condition - a complete withdrawal and a halt to the killings." Israeli officials: "The direction is positive, no tricks"
autisem101d
Can someone propose
0x64AA3F2869DE45F6121f6760288432D19681E774-1763311387317157d
Operational tempo suggests inflection.
Justadudem159d
So i should still hold it shouldn't i
matematemate198d
money wont get more free than this;
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d234d
No way this happens with an Iran-US war looming
Quilty246d
Israel bombed a three-storey Palestinian residential building in Gaza City’s Al-Zeytoun neighborhood in the latest violation of the ceasefire agreement.
0x310DF5D5D48BAA38050EB76d5E611a40623FBEd0-1759164332082249d
A joint Saudi-Turkish statement: We welcome the launch of the second phase of the "Comprehensive Peace Plan in Gaza" and the start of the sector management committee's tasks.
Krushvize251d
Hamas has announced the completion of preparations with governmental bodies in Gaza to hand over control to the internationally backed technocratic committee that will administer the strip.
0x310DF5D5D48BAA38050EB76d5E611a40623FBEd0-1759164332082252d
What needs to happen for this to resolve to yes? The mediators have repeatedly declared that Phase II has begun
PuffPuff252d
How or where are disputes made? This had to be resolved with "Yes".
Alexxd252d
so when will it get resolved as a yes?
M2sx92kljs42252d
You fail to comprehend Trump and Witkoff statements are not a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. You've asked, you got the answer. Do whatever you want with this.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733252d
Since the rules specifically exclude Hamas's acceptance of disarmament as a requirement for the "Yes" resolution, Hamas's denial of those specific terms cannot be used to invalidate the agreement.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733252d
US Envoy Steve Witkoff officially announced the "commencement of the second phase" on January 14, satisfying the rule that requires the deal to be "publicly described by... mediators on their behalf as the completion of Phase 2.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733252d
Read the fine print again. You are confusing a successful truce with the market's definition of an agreement. MEDIATOR RULE: The rules explicitly state an agreement qualifies if described by mediators on their behalf. Witkoff (US Envoy) officially announced the commencement of Phase 2 on Jan 14. That satisfies the public acknowledgment criteria. EFFECTIVENESS RULE: The market resolves Yes regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Current bombings are irrelevant to whether the diplomatic agreement exists. Disarmament Exception: The rules specifically state the deal qualifies regardless of... agreements by Hamas to disarm. PROOF OF AGREEMENT: Israel and the NCAG mutually agreed to reopen Rafah on Jan 31. That is a Phase 2 operational agreement, not a unilateral statement.
Yasoos252d
What a shitshow, this should be settled already
M2sx92kljs42252d
Because the isn't any ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel. Israel bombed Gaza today. You fail to comprehend Trump and Witkoff statements are not a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. You've been told that so many times by so many people, and even two almost unanimous UMA votes weren't enough. For the last time: This market is about a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, not about the formation of the board of peace or the negotiation teams. Just read it, or lose more money in here, just stop blaming everyone else.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733252d
Tell me a reason why this market is not a YES? Nobody is giving a simple reason
M2sx92kljs42252d
You guys come here and complain this place is rigged because it doesn't let you do 95x on your money in 10 minutes with zero effort
Alexxd252d
from how rigged this site is it will probably default to no, it would be such a show for everyone to see what this platform is about, just sports betting
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733252d
everytime i ask any AI model always claim it's 100% YES
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733253d
There are few whales buying NO, and people is afraid of the 1% of the YES. This market is free money but the manipulation is creating fear. Get ready for the dispute this night
PuffPuff253d
What the hell is this? Today's the last day and it's still at a 2% chance.
Bperil253d
Phase two -- which has officially started, after the recovery this week of the body of Ran Gvili, the last slain Israeli held hostage in the Strip -- calls for the day-to-day governance of Gaza to be handed from Hamas to the newly formed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, or NCAG. [link removed]
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733254d
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to 'Yes,' regardless of if/when the agreement goes into [link removed]
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733254d
Read the rules!if you are so smart and already read the rules why yo only have 51 shares! Enlight us!
Alexxd254d
all of you say read the rules like i need to read them for you, cite me what you think i didnt read and stop being slow yourself lmao
ZohanDvir254d
bro why are you so slow read the rules and understand what you are betting on
HipoThesis254d
YES
Alexxd254d
Phase II begun, rafah will be opened on sunday, if it didnt begin it wouldnt have opened, so I still do not understand how people dont see it as an obvious Yes lmao
Matthewgg254d
where you find it?
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733254d
That was before the finding of the last Israeli soldier, one of the conditions to start phase 2
0x6637808975ebf473E1efB5Bca5596416C7eeCE15-1766932017006254d
Guys if you look at the UMA voting you'll see previous two are both 0.66% yes against 99.33% early request. I don't think the final resolution would be yes
Alexxd254d
sell your no's, no ways it resolves as no with the amount of phase ii confirmations lmao.. can't be this rigged
AboutTime255d
Potential turning point for Gaza as peace plan enters second phase: UN envoy [link removed]
AboutTime255d
Israel releases 15 Palestinian bodies as truce deal shifts to next phase
AboutTime255d
Witkoff: We are now in phase 2 in Gaza deal
Alexxd255d
where do you see that they need to complete the arrangements? it has to be publicly acknowledged as it is by hamas US and israel, it will count regardless of if it actually giving any fruit... if you read it you see that it is a YES already, proposed twice as suc hand disputed, now waiting for the same thing..
Alexxd255d
"For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or *by mediators on their behalf*, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, *regardless* of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm."
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733255d
Or +4k in a week, bro, let's wait for this market
BigWileybum255d
Protocols are prepared, files are complete, and committees are in place to oversee the handover, ensuring a complete transfer of governance in the Gaza Strip across all sectors to the technocratic committee,” Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told AFP on Wednesday.
Alexxd255d
after this i will just assumed its rigged AF and just leave it altogether
roadto1mil255d
First week -2k??? Bro
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733255d
Great, first week here and I'm going to get scammed
Alexxd255d
100% us as a mediator has agreed and Trump as president says it has started, actually waiting for it to be a yes. polymarket might be rigged if this goes bad
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733255d
[link removed]
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733255d
Not a single person who bought NO is giving a reason to keep this market open.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733255d
Every condition is confirmed to be a YES but...... We still didn't see a Hamas soldier and Netanyahu kissing each other so is a NO. WHAT A JOKE!
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733255d
I think at this point Polymarket will find a way to say the Earth is flat
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733255d
People is scary of the stupidity of this market. Even that is 100% clear is a BIG YES
Alexxd256d
Hamas agreed to the technocrats rule and us announced phase ii 2 weeks ago
Alexxd256d
it's a yes, already phase ii
BigWileybum256d
[link removed] Is this creditable
I0I0I0256d
They said “no” for now.
zuffytaro256d
when will the dispute end ? it's a yes everyone knows
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733257d
Shut up! You are from the other side! Just kidding 😂
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733257d
In review for decades now
0x17cF29b47A2426d432214472EEe58c647fDc60f7-1765011609524257d
[link removed]
0x17cF29b47A2426d432214472EEe58c647fDc60f7-1765011609524257d
US official: Rafah crossing will reopen ‘with security coordination between US, Israel and Egypt’
0x7b62…257d
lol @ order book
0x6224d0ca562475644c59eb387d122aff257d
'We brought home a hero': Netanyahu says Israel ready for next phase of Gaza ceasefire deal The remarks came shortly after the IDF located the remains of slain hostage [link removed]. Ran Gvili, in northern Gaza.
0x6224d0ca562475644c59eb387d122aff257d
[link removed]
0x6224d0ca562475644c59eb387d122aff257d
[link removed]
