Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Comments (3)

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  DontTrustMe115d

  Not looking super promising so far. Lecornu is already talking about adopting a budget "by February 2027".

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  DontTrustMe171d

  It could go two ways really: 1) Since the 2027 presidential election will be right around the corner, parties might be ok to adopt a fairly "politically-neutral" budget and claim that it doesn't really matter since they will be able to modify it through a "budget rectificatif" the following year. 2) Since France is in a pretty terrible financial situation, some unpopular decisions might have to be included in the budget bill and parties might not want to take responsibility for those decisions right before the election, preventing the adoption of a budget in due time. More or less a 50%/50% market at the moment imo.

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  DontTrustMe171d

  Very interesting market! 👀 But too early to enter a position at the moment.