US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments (5)

• 0

  0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d114d

  Cuba passed economic reforms today. Rubio won, no need for shooting.

• 

  Onswaggie132d

  No way in hell a military clash happens, US will put pressure through sanctions and other means.

• F

  Frezhboiimatt173d

  this is so funny this is a easy no XD

• F

  Frezhboiimatt173d

  this is so funny this is a easy no XD

• G

  Gt-Carnage211d

  [link removed]