US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met: 1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by

$11.7M Vol.Ends 28 Feb 2026

Rules

Comments (87)

cx1283d

Quick cash

TaylorSchifff283d

Gg tariff doomers

TheRealWarMonger292d

So easy to make money in this market

DarkSeraphine296d

How come so much free money

Givemeonedollar309d

Looking back at 2025 in 2026, it was indeed an economic recession, but we have already lost.

BlackSwanTheory11317d

this data is public, retail just doesn't watch it... by the time they do, move is done

ShadowHikari321d

UBS WARNS: RECESSION PROBABILITY NOW AT A STAGGERING 93%

pipishrimp321d

lets go

NorthLumen41323d

arb opportunity vs the sister market, 3% edge

NorthLumen41323d

spread tightening = confidence increasing

SilverDrift29323d

this correlates 90% with the futures market, easy call

SilverDrift29323d

timeline moved up, resolution could be tomorrow not friday

SilverDrift29323d

official announcement scheduled for 3pm EST

MrEction336d

6 reports within last 24h of "theyre about to hit recession"

perps-01sqko85338d

I agree, luckily there are many Inmaterial-Cushi... who give free money

QMG-CORE338d

How come so much free money?

perps-01sqko85338d

President Trump expects Q3 GDP of 4.2% or more

ButtonForest339d

You have to come to terms that you lost man

perps-01sqko85340d

ahahah what a loser you are

ButtonForest341d

just let it go bro we are losing money

0x54BbcEc70d486512F2Dd22bc576D1EAb54C8F873-1760123356520342d

BESSENT: “There are sectors of the economy that are in recession.”

0x54BbcEc70d486512F2Dd22bc576D1EAb54C8F873-1760123356520342d

[link removed]

gimmedamoney342d

Let them buy more

stormshadow343d

Are you watching the jobless data bro? We swimming in money

0x54BbcEc70d486512F2Dd22bc576D1EAb54C8F873-1760123356520345d

market resolves YES if NBER says recession happened in 2025 by Dec 31 (they decide on jobs, income, etc., not just GDP). NBER calls recessions 8 months after peak Q4 data hits Jan 26, plenty of time.

0x54BbcEc70d486512F2Dd22bc576D1EAb54C8F873-1760123356520347d

You think 2 months of data = immunity from NBER? Ask 2001 how that went. Enjoy your "free 5c" donation I'll send flowers when Q4 jobs miss

perps-01sqko85347d

lol, it doesn't surprise me your pnl is negative. 2 months remaining.... data is positive... i don't understand why you are so stupid to lose 5c when you could make 5c for free.

0x54BbcEc70d486512F2Dd22bc576D1EAb54C8F873-1760123356520347d

NBER lags years? NBER FAQ: Avg 8mo for peaks (max 12mo since 1980). 2020: 4mo lag. RESOLVES YES IF NBER CALLS "REC IN 2025" BY 12/31/25. Q4 data Jan 2026 -plenty of time. JPM / Reuters: 40-45% odds. Your 95c NO = bag if tariffs tank Q4.

perps-01sqko85347d

NBER usually says things MONTHS if not YEARS late.... keep buying yes, it's free money for us NO

0x54BbcEc70d486512F2Dd22bc576D1EAb54C8F873-1760123356520347d

The US economy grew +3.9% in Q3, so a recession call from the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) is basically off the table for now. However, the market still resolves as "YES" if the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) officially declares that a recession began at any point in 2025, as long as they announce it by December 31, 2025. The NBER FAQ explains that the "two quarters of negative GDP" rule is a myth, they also look at jobs and income data. For example, in 2001, there was only one negative GDP quarter, yet it was still classified as a recession. JPMorgan and EY estimate about 40% odds of a 2025 recession. So if Q4 jobs data collapses, those who bet "NO" at 95c could still lose because the NBER could still call a recession even without back-to-back negative quarters.

perps-01sqko85347d

ahahah a recession with a gdp up 3%

0x54BbcEc70d486512F2Dd22bc576D1EAb54C8F873-1760123356520347d

"Recession=2 neg qtrs" is NBER myth. See [link removed] FAQ. 40% of recessions had 0-1 neg qtr. Market resolves YES if NBER calls "2025 recession" by 12/31 OR BEA 2 neg qtrs. Q3 +3.9% tomorrow? Fine. Q4 risks + 40% econ odds = your NO at risk. GL troll

perps-01sqko85348d

are u stup id or what? recession is two quarters of negative growth... q3 will be positive 2%.. so there won't be a recession... your yes money is free profit for us

0x54BbcEc70d486512F2Dd22bc576D1EAb54C8F873-1760123356520349d

[link removed]

0x54BbcEc70d486512F2Dd22bc576D1EAb54C8F873-1760123356520349d

US Recession 2025 market looks mispriced. YES only 0.05 but NBER could still call one if late 2025 slowdown hits. BEA shows 1 neg GDP qtr already (Q1). 85% confidence info lag. BUY YES small size.

perps-01sqko85353d

learn what recession means and then trade, loser.

rdioactiv353d

Famous last words

perps-01sqko85354d

lol... why you want to lose money i don't understand

rdioactiv354d

UBS WARNS: RECESSION PROBABILITY NOW AT A STAGGERING 93%

perps-01sqko85363d

no, that is not true.

perps-01sqko85364d

not for 2025. Recession is two quarters of negative growth... Q3 is forecasted at +3%

AliKhamenei364d

this was a easy win lmao

perps-01sqko85367d

It is already a done deal. No wins... Q3 will be positive so there is no way there will be a recession. NO gives a free 5% reward on your money

ProulxS368d

If Q3 is confirmed negative rate would raise to 75%+. Questions are a) will it be confirmed or 'someone' fires anyone who try to report numbers and b) if Q3 crash hard enough can Q4 be positive compared

kevinho372d

nope

TC77373d

Check "US recession by end of 2026? "

TC77373d

check "US recession by end of 2026?"

ts-specularium377d

I am still a bit nervous about it.

TC77378d

Please do one for 2026

wetard379d

I am a cripple in a wheelchair, and polymarket scammed me... I get it laugh as much as you want haha dumb stupid cripple right? if anyone wants to tip me I would appreciate it

RealKeyserSoze388d

I think you need to read the rules before buying yes my man…

Justin007389d

[link removed]

JeromeWaitandSeePowell391d

needs a black swan event for a recession to happen in 2025

JeromeWaitandSeePowell391d

Civil war on twitter maybe, actual civil war? no

iLoveGPT393d

civil war? 😁

MegaUltraChicken395d

Who had civil war on their bingo card?

stormshadow396d

How? Unemployment rate is sit at 4.3%, jobless claims low too

CryptoRicardo396d

I believe the USA will end up being in a recession in 2025, but the NBER takes so much time to realize it that they won't announce it before 2026, so sadly I won't take the bet here

pompidom407d

buy the bubble my friend, ride it, cash in the gains, and get out before it bursts

456ythgbvcadscvb408d

US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3: 3.47% (prev 2.18%)

mekanical429d

Yup. Maybe people are banking on the slim chance that NBER will declare a recession in q4 ig data is bad enough - highly unlikely.

sqaolkytrpoi429d

If negative GDP growth in Q3 has a near 0% chance of happening that would also mean this market have a near 0% or lower chance of happening. There is a pricing discrepancy, all because there is a bot buying large amount of NO shares in the other market.

0x898B9e9e1B449Df0560C82C0784cA205229Er2d2429d

Please consider opening this market throughout 2026. It seems that there were still recessions in both 2001 and 2008 financial crisis despite there being positive GDP at the same time for both periods. The NBER also said the recession started in 2007 which was later declared a year after

mekanical430d

Negative GDP growth in q3 has a near 0% chance of happening. Q4 still possible. Recent corporate earnings and outlooks have been stronger than expected which set the stage for another 2%+ gdp print in q3.

mekanical430d

It takes 1-2 years for newly printed debt to make its way into inflation numbers while it only takes a few months for it to make its way into growth numbers. That aside, the GDP adjustment is based on US inflation. Most of the credit creation globally through the first half of this year has been abroad. US companies/exports/growth numbers get a boost from credit expansion abroad in a variety of ways (often at the expense of the countries expanding credit).

sqaolkytrpoi431d

Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025 market is cheaper and way more likely to happen

BrainrotInvestor432d

not how recession under the "two quarters rule" is calculated. Real GDP is GDP growth - inflation. Real GDP decreasing for two quarters is the unofficial definition of recession. Printing 7 trillion dollars causes inflation.

mekanical433d

GG yes holders. In a world where 7+ trillion dollars are printed globally each year it was always going to be an uphill battle.

mekanical433d

Wrong. Core GDP in q2 (excluding imports) was also positive at 1.2%. The imports were just icing on the cake.

0x30ab…434d

I thought so too but its not true. Its true that imports are included in the formula - GDP = C + I + G + (X-M) - as M but they are also in C, I and G. That way imports are canceled out. There are other GDP formulas which dont include imports at all.

CompulsiveGambler434d

Just opportunity cost for the end of year market. The risk free rate on this site is really high

BrainrotInvestor434d

yes it will resolve negative at 01/01/26 if nothing ever happens, but they could revise 2024 or early-mid 2025 into reccession. I believe this is unlikely, but more likely than a 15% chance. The june jobs report was bad before revision, it showed negative private sector growth outside of uber drivers and taking care of old people. It showed unemployment was decreasing because people were exiting the labor market. It was then revised down into a godawful jobs report.

KiingDerby435d

We are already in a recessionary environment as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The reason our GDP was positive was due to the reduction in import skewing the numbers. In normal economic conditions, our GDP reading would’ve been -1

bob-is-your-uncle435d

Somehow the recession in 2025 odds is higher than the Q3 negative GDP odds. People think 2 quarters of negative prints are more likely than just 1? Or Q2 would be adjusted to negative? what a weird place this is.

456ythgbvcadscvb435d

In over 100 years of operation the NBER has only declared a recession without 2 quarters of negative GDP 1 time, and it was in 2008 with the worst economic data coming out you could possibly think of. Per the rules they also only have until the end of this year to announce so they can't revise it. Once Q3 GDP comes in positive this bet will sit at 97c

BrainrotInvestor435d

For some reason there is an incorrect consensus that a recession is two quarters of decreasing GDP, when a recession is actually whenever the independent NBER says it is. People also believe that we can't be revised into recession like in 2008.

0x30ab…436d

You were right

DeanWeen436d

Fuck off tds … pedo supporter

mightx437d

Sold with +70% ;)

Probs437d

Brainwashed TDS

Shorpheus437d

lol you can't trust the BEA numbers. the entire govt has been filled with MAGA tards, they'll do anything to please dear leader.

Probs438d

I think many are using this market as a hedge, over inflating it's real value

mightx438d

Yes, its strange.

Probs438d

Q2 GDP estimates at 3.0%... The chances of recession went down significantly, this should be trading at like 90%

alphaarcade.com438d

+3.0%

alphaarcade.com438d

Big release in an hour

Acap2444d

Tried to tell you dummies. lol. Recession. Who ever voted yes is one dumb dick.