$54M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$8.8M Vol.
$3.5M Vol.
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$4.2M Vol.
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This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
PouringRain13d
Been trading this on perps too. Curious how everyone is positioning here. For anyone looking for it: 015ssr4c
verygoodhhh17d
with the
jozeslemsek23d
Why is the pricing on this market misaligned with the "fed decision in december" market?
RimROm30d
What would make the committee accelerate rather than pause?👹
Ozir44d
Surprise coming 😂
Price03145d
yes
crshel254d
0 bps now and 15%, hmmm
Linguine1257d
Are people still looking for perps?
Jeffrey-Einstein59d
no, jerome is the king of the world
mkskstk165d
whats going on here?
Stefnc66d
Changer la photo de Powell
toneth70d
They dont update that picture cause Jpow printer go Burrrr
Jeffrey-Einstein72d
wont happen in the same year, fed policy actions take anywhere between 8-12 months or even longer to realize their impact on the economy, therefore it would be premature to do anything until you see what your cuts or hikes are doing to the economy
LA1773d
yes
0xD31e0f4637C081aB6B27274b11483fce638F541e-176258350823573d
If the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points and then cuts rates by 25 basis points, is this regarded as one rate cut?
chessbot73d
You are a very good boy
Cryptostradamus74d
If I'm so delusional, then why am I up 4x on my account since I started polymarket last February, while you're down badly?
chessbot74d
Uhm, actually the betting on No's has been a recent strategy switch which has been quite profitable as thankfully there exists delusional people like yourself. For the moment there are no markets where I have any tangible advantage so I just hold some relatively safe bets
Cryptostradamus74d
Also looking at your past performance, always betting on No, nothing bad is ever gonna happen, hasn't brought you too much success. No offense.
Cryptostradamus74d
Projections don't matter. Look at what happened at the start of covid. They made two emergency meetings and dropped interest rates to zero immediately. That's what happens when the system threatens to crash and it will happen again.
chessbot75d
Alright, well that $7.5 is gone then... They aren't cutting in 2026. The projections suggest potential cuts in 2027 however
Cryptostradamus75d
How can I lose "so much money". I put only 7.5$. My avg price is 0.3c. If I win, I'll make 2500$. It's an asymmetric bet and I have a good chance of winning it because I know what's coming this fall.
sorcerer.0176d
dudjbdj retard of the day my lord
chessbot79d
You will lose so much money and I will just get to sit back and see it happend
8GF67980d
2+ let's go!
0xBdE37A19aAb4EBaEFAf7263E7C6010982f6e317f-177368386696186d
perps: 00jbvof3
0xBdE37A19aAb4EBaEFAf7263E7C6010982f6e317f-177368386696186d
Perps Code: 00jbvof3
hyper-liquid-xyz87d
Soft PPI sinks the hike argument. Data don't lie. Hikes pushed to December while cuts is in the table.
hyper-liquid-xyz88d
Soft CPI print would allow for possible rate cut in Oct/Dec with QT to offset it
Cryptostradamus90d
12+ let's go! I told you guys. This year is not gonna end well for the worlds economy and then the Fed will have no other choice.
Cryptostradamus92d
You guys don't know what's coming. Economies are going to collapse this fall. Interest rates will drop to zero. 12+ will give me a 300x return.
GJUIIO6894d
ye s s
gh98764594d
Sticky inflation and hawkish Fed signals make zero or one 2026 rate cut the most plausible outcome
000x00095d
odds can shift pretty quickly
hyper-liquid-xyz96d
Watch Warsh would say policy is neutral then start rate cuts with QT
ThePolyAnalytics105d
Rules: "If the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each)."
Cryptostradamus106d
What if they cut 75bps at once, does that count as 1 or 3 rate cuts?
Cryptostradamus106d
After a black swan event, rates can drop quickly.
Jeffrey-Einstein109d
There will 100% be no rate cuts.
zippo32moldranz110d
there is no outcome that can currently be described as 100%
rainbowlilies119d
A rate increase is not a cut, so the counter stays at 0.
rtuhjrtjrtyrt119d
How would a rate increase resolve? 0 resolved to Yes, or everything resolves to No?
Juanjoin127d
habra recortes seguroooo
poxiy8067131d
9 - unreal
Thaws136d
How does 1 hike 1 cut resolve?
Jeffrey-Einstein137d
theres barely even a single cut on the table, the consensus is no cuts or a hike. the data doesnt support any kind of cuts now with rising unemployment, slow job growth, and sticky inflation. the fed has no choice but to wait and see which of the two forces is stronger
0xbF10fd75fa2247dFC16237211343a07f2c579136-1773548880632141d
por cuantas van?
0xa18e47280B87B8EB23e5c1204CB7fb16d94028C7-1776684219694141d
Two cuts feels like the consensus path right now
0xff968FC0Ad16b03Dd922092b3683279dB671f72D-1774433522271149d
poly98 predicts at least one.. hoping its right
RadiantLegend150d
To the Moon 📈
000x000155d
my ranked teamates
RadiantLegend159d
chill fam 😂
RadiantLegend159d
Yea.. 0 resolve to Yes bro
Obamnna161d
Dont be retarded please
Polyticks161d
How would a rate increase resolve? 0 resolved to Yes, or everything resolves to No?
Milin-dc163d
A classic in the human mind: if we don't know something, it's been manipulated.
whumpa164d
They are cooking fedwatch and general public opinion to lower the inflation expectations. Lieing also prevents the speculative investors from frontrunning. Polymarket odds are about right. We'll probably get rate cuts.
cadencede168d
tough markets to trade… my prediction market agent at pref[trade] just flagged that there’s some disparity with fedwatch.
000x000175d
why doesnt polymarket and fedwatch coincide?
0x5dDde3B22F24AE9bf2de418882437F84D1990014-1765425723126190d
8 month to wait the result, bro
nisisinet192d
2
SLAVO4KIN194d
200 never gues
