US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
$19.9M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
December 31
$3.5M Vol.
14%▲1%November 30
$143.2K Vol.
7%▼1%October 31
$920.6K Vol.
2%
$19.9M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$3.5M Vol.
$143.2K Vol.
$920.6K Vol.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. A qualifying written diplomatic instrument must: (i) Be identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting; (ii) Establish at least one specific obligation limiting Iran's nuclear program through a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested, which may take the form of a defined limit, prohibition, or quantity (e.g., a specific cap on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, or an explicit commitment for Iran to surrender, destroy, or dilute its enriched uranium stockpile). Non-specific or vague restrictions, with no defined metric (e.g., a pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons, a commitment to maintain the status quo, or an agreement to abide IAEA monitoring or inspections requirements that do not specifically restrict Iran’s nuclear program) will not qualify. The content of the qualifying instrument must be expressed as an agreed obligation to be implemented. The following do not qualify: (i) a provision the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument; (ii) a provision explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation; (iii) a floor, placeholder, or minimum standard established explicitly for the purpose of structuring ongoing or future talks. A definite and unconditional obligation may qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the exact implementation date, timeframe, or sequencing, remain subject to future arrangements, provided that the obligation still establishes a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested. Conditional obligations do not qualify. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If such an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.
SIMOMEGA3d
Yes should be higher considering theres diplomatic talks going on
crypto-basenji9d
The Ayatollahs will fold after or close to midterms.
SIMOMEGA11d
a good name
aaaaa01aaa15d
tf is that name
hyper-liquid-xyz15d
WSJ - Trump, who is a dum fuck, rejected the 7 day deal proposal as removing the blockade is unacceptable, nuclear skepticism, and the lack of Iran addressing Houthis.
JuicyPusy18d
🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING: Iranian officials left the room at UNGA session when Trump started his speech.
SIMOMEGA53d
why dont u participate too?
SIMOMEGA53d
🤣
hyper-liquid-xyz53d
WASHINGTON POST: The Trump administration is now weighing a reduction of US military presence in the Persian Gulf, evaluating a pullback of troops from the region where US bases have been "battered by months of Iranian strikes", from 8 US officials. US surrendering? Prospects of deal is imminent?
hyper-liquid-xyz62d
Iran: You will pay all reparations, stop Israel-Hezbollah war, accept 5-7% tolls, withdraw from bases, give apology. In exchange we will call the tolls anti-woke. Trump: Great deal!
0x30ab…68d
Then buy short dated strikes
US-Phenom70d
A deal is closer than we think ! DONALD J. TRUMP on Truth Social : This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
JuicyPusy70d
Blasts heard in Markazi province, Israel F**ks up another peace deal, AGAIN💥💥💥
richsob70d
BREAKING: Anti-aircraft artilleries activated in western tehran, 0630 local time
truthteller71d
the final nuclear deal, darlings
ercknavarroo75d
hola}
conotocaurius79d
only a moron could think that a final nuclear deal will be agreed in 2026. I keep a chunk of money here as a nice safe bond
SIMOMEGA81d
?
SIMOMEGA82d
thank you, however i find unlikely a deal happening simply through allocation of funds, also US will keep denying anyway
ikkiy83d
Hoh
hyper-liquid-xyz86d
X tweet in Hormuz Letter
SIMOMEGA86d
source?
hyper-liquid-xyz87d
Maybe if the allocation is given then the deal will happen! Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries.
SIMOMEGA87d
hormuz has way higher leverage on rest of the world than whatever the US is doing to Iran, they wont give up the strait so easily
0x802c27294BEd202eac837F7efA86E57116016120-177151343620988d
let’s see
US-Phenom88d
A prolonged blockade could force Iran back to the negotiating table. Its economy is already severely weakened by years of sanctions, high inflation, a rapidly depreciating currency and public finances under strain. If its main sources of foreign revenue were to be further reduced – particularly its energy exports – the regime would face an even more severe economic downturn. Under these circumstances, the financial and social pressure could become so great that Tehran would have no choice but to seek a diplomatic compromise in order to avoid a deeper economic collapse.
1stMM89d
...and as many loopholes
KimMi90d
The resolution criteria is longer than the agreement they'll sign.
0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-178207701016190d
Take a hike scammers
sebaschann91d
Hola
SIMOMEGA93d
so why did u
gtfcc93d
silly to bet on this
0x802c27294BEd202eac837F7efA86E57116016120-177151343620993d
ok let’s see
0xBb886EB4De1C3c916fDFd0252f305620a8Fff91b-177169379413295d
People never learn. In 1 and 1/2 months Trump will announce that the Iranians have finally agreed to a nuclear deal and then this will resolve yes and then the next day the Iranians will hit four tankers and Trump will threaten to nuke them
hyper-liquid-xyz95d
Trump would give up major in concessions right prior to midterms, even if it is worse than the Obama deal.
Maygs95d
wouldve bet normally
Zhora-B97d
Ha-ha! Any more silly to bet on this? 😃
SIMOMEGA98d
that means i need to bet the opposite of what i wouldve bet normally then, right?
JackStraw99d
i'd be careful putting money on something like this. Polymarket isn't exactly reputable on its judgements and they leave themselves a lot of room to rule which ever way the liquidity provider needs to make a profit. You can only trust these swindlers if there is a single defined outcome on a single defined time.
tyui987645100d
Odds stay low for a final US-lran nuclear deal amid persistent mutual distrust and regional tensions
SIMOMEGA101d
?
fghjk987101d
g m
Mission3102d
All No odds are high will wait and watch situation
Attentionguy102d
Research Polymarket US x Iran Jun 15 resolution
SIMOMEGA103d
Fars?
fort1k-kk103d
where is my comment
fort1k-kk103d
gg
deadinternettheory104d
How long until they make a second permanent peace deal market? With exact same wording for the lulz
0x9e7c7F9263784B9680A0eF9fF5C37732FC3E59d4-1772866198998104d
I'm never betting on Polymarket again!!! I have no idea how the fuck such a dumb deal could have been enough for Polymarket to resolve it as YES!!!
hyper-liquid-xyz104d
Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," - Fars. 😮😮😮
Fungui105d
This guy is a certified scammer
proliferation105d
shouldn't you buy yes shares then dumbass?
shemsii105d
a
Fungui105d
The volume is faked btw.
Fungui105d
DO NOT BET ON THIS!!! IT IS A SCAM. Research Polymarket US x Iran Jun 15 resolution.
Yurben106d
or win
hhhhhhhh123212106d
DO NOT PUT YOUR MONEY. I ALREADY LOST 3000$ ON THE SAME VOTING.！！！操他妈的，同样的投票上一次诈骗我3000美元
FutureOverDopamine106d
DO NOT GAMBLE THIS MARKET, THEY CAN RESOLVE WRONGLY AND YOU CAN'T DO NOTHING ABOUT IT
FutureOverDopamine106d
SCAM POLYMARKET, PREVIOUS ONE SET TO YES BUT WAS A NO!!!!!
0x53A86DC28b44EcCcBd5eA9BcD3c6470d4d027824-1769847732239106d
What happened?
BBQ1991107d
Advice: Don’t participate in any project that requires UMA to make the judgment, because they control the votes. If they say yes, it’s yes; if they say no, it’s no. You can’t beat them.
douyuwanjiqi107d
This damn thing finally couldn't resist milking people for money again. The last $400 million scheme was settled as "permanently closed," but when they saw there was still money to be made, they couldn't resist launching another one. Anyone who gets involved this time is a total idiot.🤣
