Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before election?
$711.5K Vol.Ends 05 Nov 2024
$711.5K Vol.Ends 05 Nov 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for convictions in the hush money case "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no sentence is rendered before November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution will be based on the initial sentencing rendered in this case, regardless of any subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. This market will resolve based on the first sentencing rendered in this case, regardless of later appeals, etc.
Car763d
Yep
N11763d
So this will be resolved on November 4th if I’m reading the rules correctly
Patroclus764d
Shouldn't this be resolved as no by now ?
Car765d
sentencing delayed till after election
ClydeD766d
New Yorkers reporting increased National Guard presence. Possibly preparing for unrest over Trump sentencing? [link removed]
Raskin766d
Also keep in mind that the immunity hearing was originally scheduled for Sept 6th. Merchan moved it to the 16th for the sole purpose of making Team Trump have as little time as possible to run the appeals gauntlet.
Raskin766d
This market and the prison time market all hinges on if Trump will be successful on Sept 16th in pulling off an interlocutory appeal. The hearing on the 16th is at 10am. Maybe it will be done by 12 noon. I expect Merchan to deny the motion to throw out the case due to immunity and deny postponing sentencing. Judge Hellerstein already ruled the Bragg case has nothing to do with Presidential immunity. Why would Merchan do a 180? So when Merchan rules against Trump on both motions, Trump has about 4 business hours on the 16th and 9 business hours on the 17th to successfully pull off an interlocutory appeal. The way it works is Trump has to first appeal to the NYC appellate court. If that fails, Trump has to appeal to NY federal district. If that fails Trump has to keep trying higher and higher up until a court is willing to hear the appeal. Can Trump successfully do all of this in about 13-15 business hours? SHould be 50/50 market
Raskin766d
Trust the Plan
COSTCOGUY766d
This is a 50/50 tbh
Champ773d
Are you certain of this? Where are you seeing this?
Champ773d
I'm new here. Is there a way to ask the resolvers a clarification question about what counts as a prison sentence?
PlebThinker776d
make me famous
Pony177777d
Yes seems like a good trade for now based on the fact that media will push le Trump should be locked up narrative as the date approaches
Slaylorswift782d
Yes
allKnowingWizard783d
Would a suspended sentence count as yes here?
Car783d
this crazy orange man needs to be locked up ASAP
Slaylorswift785d
probs wont happen but worth it at the price imo [link removed]
Troomp.com862d
NOOOOOO
