OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?
$337K Vol.Ends 31 Dec 2025
$337K Vol.Ends 31 Dec 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
LeDiddy306d
A Genius Indian
Alberte315d
Zero chance. AGI is still years away, and that word is just marketing hype. They might announce a powerful new model, but they won't use the 'AGI' term unless they've literally cracked consciousness. Hard pass on 2025
feiyu325d
that they actually have it? e.g. Tesla announced they have FSD a very long time ago... even though the concensus
Shai-Hulud332d
I don't know but there is a new one now. Search for AGI.
kadeep47333d
who create a new market the application or we can create as well
1111111111111111000000353d
those who know
Shai-Hulud355d
Can we get a new market for 2026?
0xF428887E66587a03f7CDeaf966D9C4715492EE96-1760655573124359d
Do you think doom is likely?
0xF428887E66587a03f7CDeaf966D9C4715492EE96-1760655573124359d
Why do you think this
plusshpepe360d
there is good r/r on yes, might pump on big news from openai
linegoesup364d
To confirm, this is only whether OpenAI announces they have AGI, not whether there is any concensus that they actually have it? e.g. Tesla announced they have FSD a very long time ago... even though the concensus is that it is not really FSD.
00000000AAAAAAAA379d
@lonk kalsh.i has a "when will OpenAI achieve AGI?" market too that let you bet on any year from 2025 to 2030 if ur interested in that too
0x7cf5…402d
Bois really need to calm down :)
JeromeWaitandSeePowell410d
yes was at 35% at one point lol, some of you AI metal riders gotta chill out
TheKinginYellow426d
AGI doesn't exist, it will never be achieved.
GenaTheBondKilIer432d
I think Chat GPT is alreadfy smarter than half the world's population, but the only people that really matter are like the top 2%, let's see when it reaches this level
Degen01436d
ClosedAI announces it has achieved Aritificial Fake Intelligence -scum altman
simulacrum3447d
retweeted by sama [link removed]
www-uma-rocks458d
fun ride 🐋
siddz487d
yeah lol
Bertapotamous509d
If AGI actually comes I cease to care about money. But they'll probably announce some fake. Like Elon full self driving
mitraa579d
Very low chnace of this happening. i dont see anything good for OPEN AI by making this announcement. It is arguable if they even have the best AI model as of now.
mitraa579d
This is the only scenario where this can go to yes.
gabriele581d
i think the more likely yes scenario for announcement is an arms race and the need to establish perceived technological superiority in the competition with the chinese
road586d
there is already AGI. the question is whether or not they will make the announcement this year. it is against the interest of the company to make the announcement considering the public reaction (fear), but if AI advancements accelerate, it could become so undeniable that they are forced to announce it.
ster629d
"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman [...] has scheduled a closed-door briefing for U.S. government officials in Washington on Jan. 30." [link removed]
kilove641d
really... agi omg
ster642d
Altman in his blog: ""We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies." [link removed]
ster642d
"A member of OpenAI's preparedness team is saying o3 is AGI" [link removed]
ster642d
Bloomberg: "What’s the threshold where you’re going to say, 'OK, we’ve achieved AGI now'?" - Altman: "The very rough way I try to think about it is when an AI system can do what very skilled humans in important jobs can do-I’d call that AGI. There’s then a bunch of follow-on questions like, well, is it the full job or only part of it? Can it start as a computer program and decide it wants to become a doctor? Can it do what the best people in the field can do or the 98th percentile? How autonomous is it? I don’t have deep, precise answers there yet, but if you could hire an AI as a remote employee to be a great software engineer, I think a lot of people would say, 'OK, that’s AGI-ish.'" (January 5) [link removed]
Unemployedpra642d
[link removed]
Unemployedpra642d
Nothing states that they need to truly have AGI or what true AGI is considered. Just need an announcement
poolly642d
it should below 5cents
RememberAmalek642d
For the love of god these markets give me anxiety
