OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
$820.7K Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2028
December 31, 2027
$276.4K Vol.
55%▲1%December 31, 2026
$321.1K Vol.
16%
$820.7K Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2028
$276.4K Vol.
$321.1K Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
enrico-vasaio5h
probably
WorkingIsBad2d
does it follow poisson distribution?
betjunkie4d
I should have bought more at 38c
StarMaster5d
This is an announcement market … doesn’t matter if it actually gets solved
betjunkie5d
There is some progress in the Hodge conjecture and a solution may be close but it could come from the math community or another AI
betjunkie5d
We did not have a full proof produced by an automation when we named them millennium problems. However, the market is still overestimating AI capabilities.
enrico-vasaio7d
even better, since probabilities regress to the average, this means that there won't be another solution for 2000 years
VLamarca7d
There were 2 Millennium problems solved in the last 25 years though
enrico-vasaio9d
they are called Millennium problems because they take on average 1000 years to solve. So the probability one is solved in one year is 1/1000 = 0.1%
VLamarca16d
They already solved one of the problems, why would solving another one change things that much?
betjunkie24d
Navier stokes was already near solution, and the critical pieces of the puzzle had been discovered by mathematicians. This does not hold for the rest of the problems so that they can be solved by brute force in 88 hours.
GammaSqueeze123424d
the only scenario where I lose is a scenario where the loss is meaningless relative to the magnitude of what just happened
handycap24d
Yes betters are bullish for either human extinction or post-scarcity AI utopia. You're not going to need USDT for either of those, buddy.
betjunkie29d
Stupid AI hype. The solution is not verified.
