OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?
$195.5K Vol.Ends 30 Jun 2025
$195.5K Vol.Ends 30 Jun 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by June 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
enteogenisk472d
Sam Altman has said in several interviews that they have achieved what many would have considered AGI previously, but that the criteria is constantly changing.
doggodgooddog589d
don't see out of which hat they would pull that bunny. We got 4 months left, GPT 4.5 has been a disappointment. GPT 5 will come (according to Sam A) in a few months and will not be AGI. That leaves them like 2 months at best to push this to AGI. Even by the end of the year is long-shot. End of June is never gonna be AGI.
Orimiginc590d
Sam Altman says: "trying GPT-4.5 has been much more of a "feel the AGI" moment among high-taste testers than i expected!", imagine GPT-5
0x65A3fBc92B2fE7aC5BA3E856153477bCf20dE615-1722991934959628d
Even if OpenAI had achieved AGI, OpenAI would lose profits by declaring AGI since they'd become a nonprofit according to their charter. But it's also unlikely that they have or soon will achieve AGI: [link removed]
ster643d
Oh, and: "A member of OpenAI's preparedness team is saying o3 is AGI" [link removed]
ster643d
I sold my “No” shares, bought “Yes” shares. It remains to be seen whether OpenAI will announce this in the first half of the year, but the probability has increased significantly with this clarification from Altman.
ster643d
Bloomberg: "What’s the threshold where you’re going to say, 'OK, we’ve achieved AGI now'?" - Altman: "The very rough way I try to think about it is when an AI system can do what very skilled humans in important jobs can do-I’d call that AGI. There’s then a bunch of follow-on questions like, well, is it the full job or only part of it? Can it start as a computer program and decide it wants to become a doctor? Can it do what the best people in the field can do or the 98th percentile? How autonomous is it? I don’t have deep, precise answers there yet, but if you could hire an AI as a remote employee to be a great software engineer, I think a lot of people would say, 'OK, that’s AGI-ish.'" (January 5) [link removed]
Nami-Swann643d
This sold off because people need to read beyond media headlines. There was no mention of AGI in 2025. Altman said "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes".
sinewave645d
lol ask polymarket
Zuckbig645d
Does a tweet from Sam saying for example "AGI is here" count ? Even if he is joking ( and does not say officially that he is joking)
FUNDI646d
exactly
sinewave646d
correct. so that is why yes is already traded very high
DOG647d
I've read it one more time, it's more focused on "Further Investment" from Microsoft when AGI reached. They're trying to eliminate that clause apparently!
FUNDI647d
It separates the definition of usage, but doesn't rule out OpenAI announcing it imo
DOG647d
Just google AGI clause in OpenAI investment contract
FUNDI647d
Link to highlighted section of contract?
DOG647d
Reaching AGI will automatically cancel the deal with Microsoft, it's mentioned in the investment contract. And since Open AI still need MSFT they won't claim AGI by anytime soon. At least by end of 2025.
EA8647d
OpenAi intern will print
Gullible647d
Nothing in the rules requires this to be a genuine AGI, they only need to make an announcement, correct?
Herodotus648d
Expecting an LLM to reach AGI is ludicrous
PerCapita648d
Unless they pull a Theranos, I guess.
PerCapita648d
This one's fucking dumb, 0%.
