Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?
$647K Vol.Ends 31 Dec 2025
$647K Vol.Ends 31 Dec 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined cap weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index cap weighting formula, falls below 30% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the cap weighting formula for the S&P 500.
thares556d
Well, called it. Get f*ed.
OneAHalfshadow558d
you too, mindful there is hidden rules for markets
perps-01sqko85558d
sure. thanks and good luck on your trades!
OneAHalfshadow558d
However proposing and disputing is a very dangerous process if you don't know the rules well, some will try to scam people into proposing or disputing, be mindful, read more chat in polymarket and uma discord
OneAHalfshadow558d
Only if there is a dispute, the voting gas for which uma uses is more than 250 that they get, so the loser's 750 is split into 250 to winer, 250 to poly, 250 to uma, uma use them to cover part of their gas refund, and poly use it to pay 5$ to proposer that don't get disputed, it pays 5$ to the proposers on all market if they end the 2 hour dispute window without an dispute. Polymarket currently need uma to solve edge cases. So only if dispute I get pay big, if I am certain, but in this case no disputer to put up 750, I get pay 5$ from poly
perps-01sqko85558d
ok... but Uma who is? is it connected to polymarket? so basically for uma is a win win, they get 500 every time a market is resolved? who loses loses 750 and who wins gets 1000? so you got 250 profit right?
OneAHalfshadow558d
Basically proposal is like if you think something that is resolvable, however you need to gather some evidence in advance, to avoid dispute, dispute will be there if someone think the evidence is not enough, dispute and proposal just have to put up 750 bond, and when proposal or dispute loss determine by UMA, they loss the full amount, the other side gets 250 + the 750. For the process, uma whale will decide. It is recommended if you don't understand the process that well, you look at a lot more disputed and resolved market for discussion in UMA, before you try, you really only propose if you are 100% sure it will resolve the way you like it, and you are in the top holder of that side.
perps-01sqko85558d
based on what? show us your calculations or it is b ullshit
Car558d
yeessss
aenews2558d
No
perps-01sqko85558d
GG all
perps-01sqko85558d
can you explain me, if you have time, how the proposal, dispute process works? one who disputes has to explain the reason why he does that? who decides? who loses and how much of the bond? i haven't understood it very well to be honest
perps-01sqko85558d
it was a fun ride car, it was a fun ride.
Car558d
STOP THE COUNT
Car558d
DISPUTE!!!!
Car558d
its at 33.9%
BV9558d
it's been fun 🫡
perps-01sqko85558d
lol
aenews2558d
Car rn probably: it's 35% what's going on!
perps-01sqko85558d
Let's please all have few words of admiration for @Car, he decided to sink with his ship till the last moment
OneAHalfshadow558d
[link removed] sp500 official website shows top10 weight data to align with spy, taking away brk.b and broadcom, even with the rounding, you get 29.9%
OneAHalfshadow558d
spy shows index weight data for mag7 to add to 29.87% [link removed] proposed
perps-01sqko85558d
@car i'm selling at 0.7c, do you want some?
perps-01sqko85558d
where do you check SPY update?
perps-01sqko85558d
why wasting additional money to buy some worthless no?
perps-01sqko85558d
and why disputing it if it is clear the calculation? if he disputes it it means that people like @car are damaging polymarket
perps-01sqko85558d
but if he loses it he loses additional money
perps-01sqko85558d
it's nice for you to buy more of a lost cause.
OneAHalfshadow558d
Normally that time wouldn't be later than market opening
perps-01sqko85558d
ok thanks
OneAHalfshadow558d
In around 2 Hours
perps-01sqko85558d
when approx?
OneAHalfshadow558d
Will propose once SPY Updates
OneAHalfshadow558d
29.87%
Car558d
23.98%
Carlossss558d
resolve?
perps-01sqko85558d
29.81%
Carlossss558d
its going to be so close
Car559d
No, ill buy more
perps-01sqko85559d
u no sell to try to not lose all?
OneAHalfshadow559d
New data updated for 28 Mar [link removed] 30.08% even 0.01% lower than I expected, if the market close for 31 Mar like it is currently, it is lower than 30%
Roeman559d
Obviously
HH168559d
oh no...
perps-01sqko85559d
yes
Carlossss559d
just have to close
perps-01sqko85559d
read and understand the rules before.
Roeman559d
Time to resolve
Carlossss559d
[link removed]
Carlossss559d
If it opens like this, with the premarket data, it is already below
DanielzeFourth559d
Pretty impressive you have such a high profit when you can't do simple math lol
perps-01sqko85559d
its 30.47% in my calculation as of friday
perps-01sqko85559d
i'm sorry but i think you are going to end up losing all your money on this market
perps-01sqko85559d
no way it is at 34%
Car559d
Its at 34% calm down
perps-01sqko85559d
it seems it will be another bloodbath for mag7 later today
perps-01sqko85560d
then what is?
Car560d
its not at 30.09
OneAHalfshadow561d
My intraday estimate are mostly accurate, but as it is not yet 30, you can just wait for the website update to come through before making your own choice
OneAHalfshadow561d
[link removed] Can check this out and calculate the holding weight for yourself, this data is for 27/Mar and haven't update with the 28/Mar data yet, I just do my own estimation for 28/Mar and it is 30.09% at the end of the close, you probably see the update either in 2 hours or in a couple days time when it comes to Monday, I am not sure about when weekend when it updates, but normally in 1 hour and 14 mins is the update time.
perps-01sqko85561d
I see... but since it expires in december, i think it should be priced much higher... one bad quarter for one of the 7 and its below 30 imho
OneAHalfshadow561d
Also given for most year mag7 is around 25 or 30, so only 5% change per year, that is 0.013per day on average, we can't be sure, although it is highly likely, that is why it is at 86c.
OneAHalfshadow561d
It only fluctuate around [link removed] Per day with this large drop, and mostly bounce after a big drop, and it is betting on that the mag7 will drop faster compare to other company, not the market as a whole, so there is every chance that the market bounce and never return to these levels, who knows, last time it is at 30.08 the market traded around 87c too.
perps-01sqko85561d
with 30.09 how the odds for this are not 99%?
OneAHalfshadow561d
should be around 30.09
perps-01sqko85561d
what is the current %?
NETIZENMAUS563d
we are cooked
0x2213…563d
Not a correct weight
0x2213…563d
Not at all. More shock are coming and Car is fucked
0x2213…564d
Looks like economy not doing well
0x2213…564d
One bigger shock and you are gone forever
blonpina564d
We are back! 31.02%
Mecky566d
Loll u bought from me had order in overnight :(
Car566d
no i just bought at 25ct
Mecky566d
Sell some y at 25c car - I need some exit liq
Car566d
we are so back baby holyshit
blonpina566d
It didn't. 30.1% was the bottom
Car566d
We are goin up again
Car566d
Im glad i only sold half
0x2213…566d
This has went bellow 30
blonpina568d
I was wrong, 30.56%
blonpina568d
up to 30.4%
BV9569d
[link removed]
perps-01sqko85569d
how do you calculate that?
Misterxqt569d
Yesterday close was around 30.2% but considering the pre marktet atm maybe today some more change
HHYP569d
May I know where I can check the weighing data ?
EatNuggetsBro570d
30.22%
OneAHalfshadow570d
30.24%
blonpina570d
it was 30.3%
Misterxqt570d
Yesterday close was 30.22%
Mecky570d
I'm sorry Car. It was a joke that sounded funny in my head but instantly regretted it after sending it, hence why i deleted right after posting it. I have a mentor that teaches me all about the stock market, which was why I took this position in this market. I hope you can give me a second chance, as I have plenty to share with you re stock market. ]
Car570d
Yes Wyn you dumb fuck like I didnt read that
TheRealestJOE570d
.
Misterxqt570d
Yo Car why now? You ok?
Car570d
i want to delete this market from my brain
Car570d
bye bye!
OneAHalfshadow571d
[link removed] check out this from the second largest sp500 index fund website for their weighted holding, it also shows you the weight for sp500, on the right of the page under index top holding, your method is wrong, sp500 uses float market cap method, you are just using the total market cap, therefore getting the wrong number, you are welcome.
Car571d
nice green strong day for mag 7
Car571d
If it actually was at 30.08% this market price wouldve been at 98ct Y already
Car571d
34.5%
Misterxqt571d
market close at 30,08%
Misterxqt572d
30,14%
Bossco123572d
[link removed]
Mecky573d
Market up yet mag 7 down on a mkt up day lol
