Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

$2.9M Vol.Ends 01 Nov 2026

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments (86)

pink.impala1d

they said before its gonna happen but it didnt, you cant trust em man

bakayo33 - 99343d

Iran Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei: Tehran has spared no effort, in consultation with Oman as another coastal state, to restore security to the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides agreed on the geographical coordinates for safe transit routes and on how the agreement will be presented internationally.

pink.impala15d

horrible Omanians should just make agreement already

hyper-liquid-xyz16d

Araghchi - Iran proposes a 7-day plan to end the war. Tehran presented Washington, through intermediaries, with a plan that includes 7-day ceasefire in Lebanon, releasing frozen assets, blockade lift in exchange for the opening of the strait in 7 days and immediate nuclear negotiation.

Johan-Cruijff21d

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Iran and Oman reached an understanding regarding determining a safe passage route in the Strait of Hormuz

LevantLeverage26d

The end of a legend, i will miss you Arman...

MEPP27d

The Minister of Energy of Oman said that the Strait of Hormuz will probably be opened and the current situation will be short-term.

iForgor27d

Well well well..

LEGENDARY10127d

Knew it wouldn't happen. There was never any confirmation from Oman

MEPP27d

court jesters on Y

MEPP27d

nop

GammaSqueeze123427d

postponed?

Avitz3327d

That market was one hell of a ride

Avitz3327d

lol

Channel427d

Sorry not sorry

Car27d

Meeting postponed indefinitely per Saudi Arabia request

SickandTired28d

Arman

GammaSqueeze123428d

i mean if you are gonna take my money let me know how I die

GammaSqueeze123428d

genuinely who is pumping yes sept 14.

AlexxHamilton28d

will happen 🤝

SickandTired28d

then why do you have Yes shares?

Avitz3328d

Probably will

JMSHZMBR98811528d

It won’t !

ithinkthisisgod28d

p1 no arman is on y

MEPP28d

it will happen

pink.impala28d

prepare to lose your money!

JMSHZMBR98811528d

It’s a no don’t be fooled

AlexxHamilton28d

hahaa

yungsoleimani28d

smart

Rainless28d

i got a better entry than you too

AlexxHamilton28d

why did mecca agreement ? this is like that .

SickandTired28d

then why do you have 2.8k YES shares for Sept. 14?

SickandTired28d

why would they do that?

AlexxHamilton28d

i got better

Rainless28d

haha i got a better entry than you

Raskell28d

Could easily be some sham agreement just for optics

adasol28d

the elephant in the room here is the Hormuz fee. Iran wants to collect fees, but so far Oman resists this idea. That is why it is unlikely to produce any agreements on Monday

MerhabaKardesim28d

Yep

AlexxHamilton28d

this is enough to resolve yes .

0x30ab…28d

Why would a route plan drop oil prices?

0VLYp28d

Deal will be signed and announced but the strait will not be opened. Iran wants to present this new route to the Americans as a sign that they are serious in opening the strait if they reciprocate with respect to the blockade.

dfupagain28d

A conditional agreement that formalizes Iran’s gains while keeping actual reopening contingent on U.S. action could be well worth a temporary dip in oil prices. Iran would preserve most of its underlying leverage while gaining a diplomatic win, strengthening its claim that Washington is the main obstacle to normalization and potentially isolating the U.S. politically. Oman is still the difficult part, but that also makes Pezeshkian’s wording more significant: it is hard to believe Iran’s president would publicly frame Monday around signing the agreement unless there had been some credible progress behind the scenes. For that reason, I’m inclined to give his on-the-record statement more weight than an anonymous Reuters source, even if the latter is closer to the technical negotiations. - GL!

thevotwddweller28d

That's why Iranians keep emphasizing that the upcoming deal doesn't mean opening up the strait. It's just a deal between Oman and Iran. Read the news.

paddaa28d

That’s just what I was thinking !

MrMelonHead28d

I think the challenge is as follows: If they announce something, oil prices will drop, reducing Iran's negotiation leverage. Meaning Iran is only likely to agree to a deal that is very favorable to them, which Trump is unlikely to agree to. I think the chance of Oman agreeing to something against Trump's wishes is quite low. Sure, there are many other factors at play, and I may be missing something, but for the reason stated, I believe yes is quite unlikely.

0xD324e20e3462d859a2913C5bfD162Ed7F9Aeb23c-177315287174329d

They don't need to sign anything for this to resolve yes. All it takes is the announcement of an MoU between Iran and Oman.

Konfucious29d

Correcto

Channel429d

IRAN-GULF TALKS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE HORMUZ DEAL Monday’s meeting between Iran and Gulf states in Oman is not expected to produce a signed agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian official told Reuters.

AlexxHamilton29d

i don't watch loosers .

AlexxHamilton29d

i know you are still crying for money you lost 🤪

yungsoleimani29d

son stop pocket watching me

AlexxHamilton29d

abdollah , you are the most stupid guy i have ever seen

AlexxHamilton29d

so don't any bet you make 😉

thevotwddweller29d

you'll get equally f***d on that switch to yes. mark my word.

AlexxHamilton29d

yung f***cked up . not wrire rules just fu*cked up 🤣

paddaa29d

be skeptical

tsybka29d

u monkey?

MEPP29d

nopp

AlexxHamilton29d

yup

yungsoleimani29d

double cup my styrofoamnmm somehow im still awakeeee

yungsoleimani29d

sorry not sorry

thevotwddweller29d

Cheers then, brother, haha

yungsoleimani29d

No i just predicted the pump and rebought at a lower price lmfao

MEPP29d

peace

thevotwddweller29d

yungsoleimani, I guess u did shite in your panties in the end.