Iran full airspace closure by...?
$10.2M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
December 31
$420.2K Vol.
26%▲3%October 31
$178.9K Vol.
8%▲1%
$10.2M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$420.2K Vol.
$178.9K Vol.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
yungsoleimani4h
son😭
Mikelious8h
Iran closed its airspace tonight
SqMoneyHunter4d
Add November plz
SqMoneyHunter5d
October is extremely undervalued compared to December. 4% against 20% ? Weird
KariSpice9d
Why isn't November being added?
SIMOMEGA11d
fuck u lmao
orelR3413d
November 5 attack in Iran
Mikelious18d
"The United States has effectively implemented a global "aviation blockade" or secondary boycott on Iranian airlines, cutting off international air routes."
pink.impala31d
fuck ukraine
SIMOMEGA32d
says the guy with neg pnl
pink.impala37d
🤡
SIMOMEGA37d
cmon guys give me another market manip pleaseeee
Ponno40d
FIRST ONE SENDS 1$ GET 20$ HARRY UP
Shay140d
Well it’s or tonight or August 31 done🥲
Hennesseeyyyy41d
Iran announced airspace clearance!
GollumGekko41d
REPORT FROM IRAN: Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport has been closed until further notice.
Car41d
boom
clazzy146d
mike are you done losing?
SIMOMEGA47d
what happened to Yes pricing?
hyper-liquid-xyz52d
Iran has a 3-4 week ultimatum issued a few days ago for US to surrender to their demands. Iran's Araghchi mocked Trump's economic d-day tweet, he claimed the move was designed to distract from Washington’s “unprecedented debt & surging interest costs”.
Shay153d
Too much quitting ngl I think we back to war this time fr or ggs and go 100% forever peace type of shit
Mikelious53d
IDF HAS ENTERED ALI TAHER RIDGE.
Mikelious56d
BREAKING: U.S. preparing for a significant escalation of pressure on Iran** The United States is expected to expand its economic and maritime pressure measures against Iran, going beyond sanctions on Iranian companies and entities. The main focus: money-transfer networks and currency exchangers suspected of facilitating the transfer of funds to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s armed forces.
Shay157d
An Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy commander, anonymously to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar affiliated with Hezbollah:* "Do you have a thought for a historic response, if such an attack is launched when no target in our target bank will be immune, whether small or large" ✍️ The Iranian commander is responding appropriately to any attempt to take control of the islands around the Strait of Hormuz, hours after an oil tanker was hit by a drone in the Strait.
Mikelious57d
U.S. President Donald Trump: "Pretty soon, I'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz a territory of the United States."
Mikelious58d
According to sources: U.S. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is pushing for renewed strikes on Iran. Cooper reportedly told Israeli officials that he believes resuming the military campaign against Iran could put pressure on Tehran and lead it to change its position in the negotiations.
Shay160d
Reports of explosions in the Sirik region of southern Iran* ✍️ Channels affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards are reporting explosions in the region, and claim that this is likely a missile launch towards the Strait of Hormuz - another incident in the sensitive strait, after earlier today it was reported that a US helicopter fired at a ship that tried to break the blockade.
Shay161d
Netanyahu asked the court to reserve Defense Minister Katz - "in light of an exceptional security situation that cannot be specified"* ✍️ The request comes after the Likud announced last night that in addition to Netanyahu himself, ministers Israel Katz, Gideon Sa'ar and Haim Katz will also be reserved. The leaked version of the request does not specify the nature of that security situation - only that it is "exceptional" and nothing can be revealed about it. 🔵 Katz's reservation joins the reservation announced last night for Netanyahu himself, Sa'ar and Haim Katz. 🔵 The drafter of the request explicitly refrains from specifying the security situation - the leaked version makes it completely unclear. ❌ *The official reason for the Defense Minister's reservation: an exceptional security situation that cannot be specified.
Shay162d
Israel get no choice trump have no idea how to win war for him to lose and pay 400B$ is win… Israel will act alone so we still good.
hyper-liquid-xyz64d
Stock market closing, we might see something spicy or not, either US accept Iran tolls or rejects it.
Shay164d
Remember my words war back again or Israel will attack alone like last time USA didn’t want to hop on so Israel attacked and then USA didn’t small ass attack for the cherry on the top
Mikelious65d
Senior U.S. intelligence official: Iran is only a few months away from producing its first nuclear bomb, and activity at its nuclear sites has intensified significantly.
SIMOMEGA65d
now the odds are much more honest
Mikelious65d
Initial reports of explosions heard in Qeshm Island.
Shay166d
No deal signed and will never will way Too much disagreement… just see soon guys also full month btw no need for rush
SuckMyDicck66d
likely deal signed
Mikelious66d
BREAKING: IRAN POUNDING BAHRAIN.
Shay167d
Oh okay thanks and yea I know we may back to war that weekend
Shay167d
Israel about to attack in Lebanon again soon
Mikelious67d
ISRAELI MILITARY ISSUES EVACUATION WARNING TO VILLAGE IN SOUTHERN LEBANON.
Mikelious67d
No de-escalation aka war. Because if you wouldn't intend to go to war you wouldn't need more refueling tankers.
Mikelious67d
Al-Mayadeen correspondent in Tehran: "Iran and Oman could reach an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz if American interference comes to an end." Seems like the US is blocking a deal on Iran's terms. All out war imminent this weekend.
Shay167d
Israel attacking Lebanon
Shay167d
What dose it mean bro?
Mikelious67d
Additional tankers on their way to Israel.
Shay167d
United States president Trump According to him, if the Iranians collapse the talks again, the US will attack them with force. The words of the commentators are a continuation of the "carrot and stick" policy towards Tehran, with the fate of the opening of the Strait still depending on the results of the ongoing diplomatic talks
Shay167d
US calls on Trump to "break the rules" with Iran; IDF prepared for possible weekend attack* ✍️In the US, calls from various sources are being made for the president to take a more decisive approach with Iran, claiming that the current situation "humiliates the most powerful power in the world." Appropriately, the IDF is assessing the possibility of a large-scale attack in the arena this weekend. 🔵 According to the report, criticism in the US is directed at the recurring pattern of announcements of strikes that are later canceled. 🔵 It was also reported that the IDF is assessing the possibility of escalation in the arena over the weekend, and is preparing accordingly. ❌ The arena remains tense, in addition, internal criticism of the conduct with Tehran is increasing, and Israel is maintaining high alert for escalation
Shay167d
What a dump demm chill like we don’t have a full month until August 31 wtf
Mikelious67d
WSJ: The U.S. and regional governments rejected Iran's demand to collect fees, instead pressing for guarantees that Tehran's proxies won't attack or threaten their territory.
