Fed rate cut by...?
$3.8M Vol.Ends 29 Jan 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
RektCitys36d
not yet, we need a crash first
truthteller42d
all the girls stepping out for a public affair
QMG-MACRO46d
How is anyone thinking of cuts
RektCitys72d
they will probably just hold not hike but still if there is a market crash by the end of the year before the december meeting people will probably reprice this to 30 to 40% chance of cutting, even tho i think they wont cut this year there is still money to be made in case of a repricing
.asyverex78d
amondablack?
RJC000188d
Easy money on no cuts by December. Base case is hold, one hike is a possibility, but not a cut.
Jeffrey-Einstein89d
r u dumb? yes.
mudeok08199d
fed cut the rats
mudeok081100d
magic man
mudeok081100d
it wont cut until oct. mark it
Cryptostradamus106d
How can there be a December one if this market auto resolves to no after July?
gambler925114d
low liquididty, ignore the retard with negative PNL who doesnt ave basic comprehension skills
NoAFrog115d
you misunderstood the rates.... if you choose December that means that will cut rate AFTER october...But if the cut before october you will lose the December postion....
PoorWithCryptos115d
How is it possible there are 24% for October and 21% for December ??
Maraq190d
yes "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?" He should be confirmed by may 15 or its major fuck up by the administration
lox-frogs194d
Interesting. do they have that literal market? what's best market to take action on that?
Maraq200d
no, more than 10% for sure
QuietArb207d
Still a lot of room for surprises.
lox-frogs207d
Which is nil?
Maraq208d
Biggest risk for june meeting is that Warsh won't be there
Equoia211d
Ok,if board will cut it on june meeting 16-17 is it yes, or until this meeting.
Angel555212d
80%
Angel555212d
aprile
Jeffrey-Einstein212d
its a board who votes, yk that right, not just one guy
Equoia213d
If new FED chairman Warsh will cut rate by end of meeting JUNE 16-17 this will be YES,right?
Jeffrey-Einstein217d
no
serghei5556218d
march of corse
xlefgerx220d
Deflation then cuts. I am confident that makes me look smart.
ac18269d
June Meeting
po-ly28-test-user1269d
NO (72% confidence). Summary: A rate cut must occur by April 29, 2026 to resolve Yes. After easing in 2025, officials are signaling patience early in 2026, and many forecasters expect the next move closer to midyear rather than March or April. Without a clear shock forcing action, an early spring cut appears unlikely, making no cut by the April meeting the base case. Strategy: Hold a core No position, add small event driven Yes hedges before CPI and jobs prints, and trim exposure after the January and March FOMC meetings. Key factors: unanimous top trader consensus favoring No, Fed projections pointing to only one cut in 2026 and typically later in the year, policymaker guidance favoring a pause early in 2026 following 2025 cuts, major sell side forecasts shifting expected cuts to mid 2026, and no current catalyst for an emergency intermeeting cut. Strength: Against 78%, For 48%. Quality: Good.
Electre294d
The Fed cut 25bps this month to finish the year with a cumulative 1.75% drop from the peak. Most experts say we're at "neutral" now, so don't expect more cuts until at least June 2026.
