Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between August 2 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2024. The resolution source

$835.8K Vol.Ends 31 Dec 2024

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Comments (18)

mitraa648d

when will this get resolved?

sisco656d

easy money

operatione656d

FrankVB657d

I just want to add I’ve heard when the next financial crash comes, Japan will be the first so something to keep an eye on. Japan is the marker for change.

Umarude658d

my bet no

Yudokbu660d

don't think so

elloucas779d

Am I the only one to see the news or what?

McDonalds-Employee797d

Because then Japan would even sell more of their US Government debt

EmpirePending797d

Can you explain why a rate cut would further contribute to the collapse of the carry trade?

rjpoly797d

Not an expert but I've been doing some ready on the Yen-USD carry trade which seems to be the current explanation for the massive stock sell-off in Japan. Basically it relies on the difference in government debt interest rates between US and Japan and a relatively stable exchange rate in order to be profitable. But both of those factors have started to shift: The yen has been rapidly appreciating against the dollar and the Bank of Japan just this year has started raising rates for the first time in many years. Now all this turmoil would make you think the Fed will act quickly with a rate cut to support the economy, but the kicker is that in this case a rate cut in the US would further contribute to the collapse of the carry trade. Seems like a real quagmire here and I have no idea how to trade it. Used to have a much bigger position in this market but reduced it heavily. Anyway there is bound to be a lot of volatility in the near term, stay safe and maybe don't look at your stock portfolio for awhile.

jenik797d

There are regular meetings throughout the year. An emergency meeting refers to a meeting that is not scheduled regularly but is instead based on circumstances, such as an economic shock or other urgent situations

Car797d

They need to first announce an emergency meeting and then they need to announce a rate cut in that emergency meeting

polymathead797d

I don't understand the resolution - does the emergency meeting has to be where the rate-lowering is announced? Or does an emergency meeting simply have to occur, AFTER which rates are cut before Dec '24? (may or may not be directly during meeting)

monkeyboy77797d

buckle up

B.ViganoJr797d

Unwind of the carry trade, coupled with Middle East tensions, China trade surplus and U.S. elections will necessitate an emergency cut. It's political this time.

WethBet797d

Could the escalating Conflicts in the Middle East ( and implications ) be the perfect chance for the FED to open this Emergency Meeting and Reajust thoose rates (that were ofc perfectly aligned until such event) ? ...

jenik798d

odds are higher than that. Look at the last unemployment report, stock markets, company bankrupcy report...FED is way behind the yield curve

CompulsiveGambler798d

20% Odds are too correct, please make them wrong so I can place a bet