Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$428.6K Vol.Ends 26 Oct 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%
$103.1K Vol.
50%▲1%
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
$94.8K Vol.
27%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%
$80.9K Vol.
15%
Lula da Silva <4%
$33.7K Vol.
10%▼1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+
$58.4K Vol.
2%▲1%
Lula da Silva 4-8%
$21.6K Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva 8-12%
$18.6K Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva 12%+
$17.6K Vol.
<1%

Rules

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Comments (2)

barillas1d
60% é praticamente impossível. Mesmo no cenário extremo em que 100% dos eleitores de todos os eliminados migrassem para o Flávio, ele somaria 47,2% mais 7,8%, uns 55% dos válidos. Para chegar a 60%, precisaria tirar uns 5 pontos do próprio eleitorado do Lula do primeiro turno, ou trazer milhões de novos votos de quem não votou, só para ele.
0x6e654D31825339c23c47855999bd89d10B70A4fd-17684369599602d
ta com cara que vai ser +60% para o enterro oficial do petismo