Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
$21.4M Vol.Ends 04 Nov 2026
Democrats Sweep
$5.3M Vol.
62%R Senate, D House
$3.3M Vol.
30%Republicans Sweep
$7M Vol.
9%D Senate, R House
$3.3M Vol.
<1%Other
$2.5M Vol.
<1%
$21.4M Vol.Ends 04 Nov 2026
$5.3M Vol.
$3.3M Vol.
$7M Vol.
$3.3M Vol.
$2.5M Vol.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
polymark2d
Brazil is a very different situation and more to do with the specifics of the Bolsanaro family. The midterms are much more of a test of how voters feel about the economy and the GOP than about Trump. Trump's base will still show up but the independents will be the deciding factor
0xb352EdAEeA9EA21Ba161aa7e6eeac074C5b1c550-17759724133084d
trump is female
EverythingAlwaysHappens4d
good goys
AnEggplant5d
Me when I go upstairs at the frat party
ChetChetwick5d
Yeah the resurgence of the right wing in Brazil and Spain, and the increasing momentum in places like France and Germany is one of the reasons why I'm not buying that a sweep is going to happen. If they take the House it's gonna be by a razor thin margin. Right wingers do tend to lie in polls, don't forget, and the ones that don't answer polls always come home on Election Day. Trump is far more popular than the approval polls seem to suggest, both domestically and internationally.
crypto-basenji5d
are u retarded
RUMBLED5d
I typically my bets to the end. Not a trader. There's just greater risk here than people think.
AnEggplant6d
And yet you haven't sold your "overpriced" asset... 🤔
JustTheFacts6d
Too many of the right wing retards only show up when Trump is on the ballot.
JustTheFacts6d
Nah, it's more about people get fed up with whatever party has all the power. In the US, that's the GOP. Plus Dems were understimated last midterms going by the state polls.
RUMBLED6d
I think 60/40 is about the right price. 67 cents is too high for the Dems. People need to remember that right wing retardation is often a lot more popular than the polls suggests. It's playing out in Brazil right now as we speak.
InsderEpstien6d
hope the fist one to fall is musk
InsderEpstien6d
Hope the first one to fall is musk after a sweep
drachenlord17107d
I think you would have better ods throwing you money into a slot machine lmao. look at this guys trades
drachenlord17107d
Reps wont even win Alaska and Texas lmao. Its TROVER
SamuraiStevo7d
shhhh brotha, he's paying us 😋
AnEggplant7d
…by yeeting these fascists out of every level of government
Fujii7d
nice negative 2k brother you MAGA people sure are smart
EverSupreme77d
MAGA!
EverSupreme77d
You are clueless
EverSupreme77d
Catch a wake up tard!
Jimbobo8d
I'm no American but VOTE DEMOCRAT from now on because Trump is making your country a laughing stock
AnEggplant8d
Hey chat if Kansas is a tossup that means it's RR right
DannyG08d
trump is sexy.😇😇😇
DannyG08d
trump is sexy.
Fujii9d
i wonder if JD has to change Trumps diaper or its someone else...
dPredictor12d
he is not listening to your sorry ass, why don't you shut the fuck up and stop spamming shit, you don't even have any skin in the game
dPredictor12d
trump started this war of aggression because the MOSAD blackmailed him with the stuff that is going to come out in Katie Phang's lawsuit, also you're down 2k, maggot
dPredictor12d
🍊🤡
0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-178207701016113d
orange fatso starting the war is just a tiny detail
fouc13d
the world is crazy, trump is sexy.
hyper-liquid-xyz13d
The Hormuz strait is still expensively open, but it is Iran's fault and not Trump's fault that most ships there get blown up. Jerusalem Post - 8 US soldiers were injured very severely in an attempted escort of the ship.
SmartButLazy13d
I paid 4.89 to deliver pizza today :)
six-seven6713d
It will be cheaper when the Democrats win... most women are not allowed to drive in places like Iran far less fuel demand.
Ulve130kkaikelex13d
Balance of power is tense. 2 shares check.
arvinlleva9414d
I am already counting my money...
hyper-liquid-xyz14d
Hormuz Letter X: Iran launched sea mines using missiles with payloads in the Hormuz strait. 7-8 explosions have been reported in a failed US escort of the ships in the Omani route recently. Very incompetent military. 💩💩💩
ItsRigg3d15d
The gayatollah has no leverage(and is probably deceased)
hyper-liquid-xyz15d
WSJ - Trump, who is a dum fuck, rejected the 7 day deal proposal as removing the blockade is unacceptable, nuclear skepticism, and the lack of Iran addressing Houthis. JUST ACCEPT THE DEAL LIKE IRAN WILL NOT GIVE A BETTER DEAL THAN THIS.
bluebandss15d
I think this one could be a win
ItsRigg3d16d
Put some money where your mouth is, Missy
CKAB16d
r-r-r-rr-r-r RETARRRDDD ALERRRTTTT
Homeless-the-grey16d
your gonna make bank
Homeless-the-grey16d
He will flee to russia
ItsRigg3d16d
Nice track record you've got
0xf6E997149D940083178AD46947000228548a51Ae-178191052772816d
based on your feelings? solid
ItsRigg3d16d
GOP will probably get the two houses, that's why
hyper-liquid-xyz16d
Rep would probably have to take Iran by force if they want to have a slight chance of winning. Surrender does no good. Iran Launches two Ballistic Missiles to refute Strait of Hormuz “phased path” peace claims.
TheArcane16d
Lottery ticket
CIAReaper16d
Who buys rep sweep? What is the reasoning here?
Fujii16d
when Trump say winning he just meant himself and his friends...
RUMBLED17d
That's not how supply and demand works. If you take away a product from the global market it raises the price. The US does not control its oil supply. Oil companies do. They sell at the price of world markets, not MAGA Markets.
CKAB17d
$5.50 regular unleaded today in my shitty ass red state. Republicans are done and it's only going to get worse going into 2028.
CKAB17d
$5.50 regular unleaded today in my shitty ass red state.
InsderEpstien17d
I am not us Citizen but I feel people are fed up with Mango
hyper-liquid-xyz17d
US delegation walks out in protest of mid-Iran UN speech today - youtube - watch?v=vvyG23UpvDQ 2:32-2:59
G.Hchen18d
I'm tired of winning Mr President
dPredictor18d
you're not getting that 5k check he has lied about this before, repeatedly, it never happened
dPredictor18d
hope he does it, oil companies are the only supporters he has left, and it is only because he is making them $$$$$
0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-177386515187718d
Oil execs will would want him axed though
hyper-liquid-xyz18d
Axios - Trump backs ban on diesel exports. This will lower US diesel prices and crash WTI/HO while Brent/Gasoil will spike. International refinery and shipping equities that uses non-US routes will benefit.
Fujii18d
he probably ded before they will get to a conviction sadly that stuff takes years
dPredictor19d
most likely he will be impeached, convicted, removed from office, and locked up or he might escape to Russia, TBD
dPredictor19d
by calling a recess to stop the Hegseth impeachment
dPredictor19d
Rep. Thomas Massie introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth over the Iran war, forcing a House vote by Thursday. Johnson prevented the vote by abruptly canceling Thursday’s session and recessing the House Wednesday evening for a seven-week break through the midterms, like the pu$$y he is
Fujii19d
Trump will go down in history as the worst and most corrupt president ever
charliekai6222d
omg
NATGAS24d
God, may America be saved.
AnEggplant24d
Magat whales capitulating
Bobb-48024d
Is this big shift just because of the interest rate hike?
JustTheFacts24d
Mike Johnson conceded the midterms
moneymakingmachine24d
what is going on??
H4RE24d
Wtf happened today?
Dollarbig26d
mimimim
Gratitude-20427d
Iran's control of saudi's oil will drive up oil price after all the oil reserve is getting dry.
JustTheFacts28d
It's over for the GOP and MAGA. Big traders waited until after Labor Day.
Magician534228d
You can observe a significant split voting between Sanders and Hinson in polls, Turek is not bad but Hinson is a strong candidate.
mariusfnk28d
Yo
CKAB28d
Uh, yes it can, easily. Cooper is going to win, Troy Jackson in Maine is an easy pickup, Talarico is leading and Peltola is going to win in AK easily too. They can also win in IA because Hinson is a woman and Turek is a man.
WDCons30d
The market isn't taking it seriously. Which is fair as it cannot actually happen.
vip77730d
I'm getting that trump stimulus
Magician534231d
Dem needs to flip NC, ME, TX and AK to control the Senate. IA is not in play bc Hinson is a good candidate
molala31d
R Senate D House easy money !
