Texas Senate Election Winner
$3.2M Vol.Ends 04 Nov 2026
James Talarico (D)
$1.5M Vol.
64%
Ken Paxton (R)
$1.7M Vol.
36%▼2%
$3.2M Vol.Ends 04 Nov 2026
$1.5M Vol.
$1.7M Vol.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
JerryVoltage21h
Seems like someone is losing some money, keep beting from your heart 😆😆
RealScroogeMcDuck1d
If Talarico win he should be democratic candidate in president election.
ItsRigg3d1d
Thanks, I'll follow your tip and make retarded big emotional bets on stuff I know nothing about from now on. Can't wait to lose half my portfolio.
Bperil1d
Talafreako has escaped from the nuthouse everyone look out!!!
0x6B11FB81561815995a6D8Ed3B90dD95D3F4838e8-17720215698551d
by not putting a pathetic 30 bucks on something I'm being a loudmouthed little cunt about. :)
ItsRigg3d1d
Sorry, Mr Warren Buffett. Please, give me tips on how to lose two thousand dollars in a year, I'm desperate to know.
0x6B11FB81561815995a6D8Ed3B90dD95D3F4838e8-17720215698551d
You have 28 dollars invested in this lol. Talking big with a 28 dollar stake makes you look like a fool lol. So does ending your sentences with "lol", by the way lol.
ItsRigg3d1d
They're both deep red, idiot 😂😂
ItsRigg3d1d
I miss the part where that's my problem
ItsRigg3d1d
Talafreako missing for 12 days lol. Hat fool isn't going to win.
alextalley2d
Did Talarico’s body reject that one steak he had? Is he dead?
PaulRevere2d
Agreed exceptionally stupid for voting for Talarico the Freako
takeabreath2d
Still think Paxton wins because amongst Americans (dumbest people in first world) Texans are an exceptional breed of stupid.
Fujii5d
Talarico a great candidate vs Paxton probably the worst candidate ever seen in a senate race
Bperil8d
Que paso
clazzy19d
Talafrico gon win
AnEggplant10d
Because most of them are pdf files
Magician534210d
Still don’t understand why Republicans prefer Paxton to Cornyn
AnEggplant10d
Paxton with the weakest explanation ever of why he let a convicted pdf file walk free. If you're explaining, you're losing. And if you're explaining why you offered a convicted pdf file a plea deal for 1 day in jail, you're not gonna make it. James Talafreako is going to represent the Republic of Texas in the United States Senate.
JustTheFacts11d
The election is over. Paxton trashed Trump
Roeman12d
Buddy is hoping for that 5k check
dPredictor12d
maggot should go back to the hole they came from
GoodChanses13d
The Republican establishment is refusing to support Paxton since he took their biyatch cornyn out. Paxton has an uphill battle ahead of him. Ironically the lack of support from the republican establishment may yet save him in an election where the Republican Party is pretty unpopular. We will see. Cornyn would be doing much worse. Everyone had had energy of him.
randyandi15d
and you are a rassist idiot
Magician534216d
Republicans should have nominated Cornyn.
dPredictor18d
ICE shot a man in the back, yoinked him out of the hospital, drove him a hundred miles, shackled, with a bullet next to his spine, then made him sleep in the floor, now he is paralyzed. Even if you are all for 'mass deportations' what they did is a crime against humanity, and will flip Texas blue for good.
dPredictor18d
make it 1K
0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-177386515187719d
You have an all time loss of 462 dollars brah
Zaratustra19d
Ken loser
insanelgreat19d
Ty for the free money, leftist losers.
kaijennings53720d
lets go, James
AnEggplant22d
Trashfalgar has fallen. James Talafreako will represent the good people of Cowfuck, Texas in the United States Senate.
takeabreath23d
It's a bit more complex than that, I think. If it were that obvious to dems in the past Texas would've been blue sooner. It's the right time to be Talarico, because the republican party is in a transition period that I think many working class republicans do not trust. Paxton's camp is laden with scandals, he is backed by someone who is also laden with scandals (Trump) and they have no plans to alleviate economic issues of working class households. It's a perfect storm for change. But precedent in Texas is still a major barrier. The first signal that TX turns blue in Nov will determine if a blue wave will happen or not, I think.
0xB7E3058376F9A009acEa708Fd2e1dbE9e3989b0e-173018108928423d
So you'll elect a deeply corrupt pdf file protector as long as they aren't overly sympathetic to trans people, who make up 0.000001% of Texas. Makes sense.
0xC4883A436873F58eaab04Edc1E65f3Dd43f27AB0-177827544121825d
What does “moderate” even mean? He’s willing to say that there are only two sexes, and that transgender women should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports when doing so could create safety concerns for female athletes. If Talarico isn’t willing to clearly state those two positions, then at least I wouldn’t vote for him.
HDTomo-22925d
Talarico is not broadly moderate. A large part is just native fluency in kitchen table economics, religion, and just being a plain good speaker. That's just a particularly good outreach method for Texas. His policies could be Mamdani or Manchin and he'd do similar
HDTomo-22925d
Market decided to finally stop being boring and wrong Texas is arguably bluer than Ohio now
0x3d8219D7845AcB25c9b9f7B479526c67bB62cAa2-176903944522925d
Lmfao 😂😆 GOP cheat factor.
AnEggplant26d
Ahem
0xC4883A436873F58eaab04Edc1E65f3Dd43f27AB0-177827544121826d
It’s pretty remarkable that Paxton had been leading by around 50 points in Texas at one point, yet Talarico has managed to close the gap so dramatically. I believe there are plenty of rational, pragmatic voters in Texas who aren’t necessarily committed to either party. Perhaps the problem for Democrats in the past was that their candidates were simply too far to the left for many Texas voters. Talarico, by presenting a more moderate and pragmatic image, seems to be attracting a much broader audience than Democrats have in recent years.
themightyslug40d
You know what? Maybe it's better you stick to culture war arguments, because when it comes to actual policy, you don't know your ass from a hole in the ground.
themightyslug40d
Which part of Talarico's plan are you calling “the government setting prices”? Expanding the EITC? Child tax credits? Housing construction? ACA subsidies? Raising the minimum wage? Antitrust enforcement? You're arguing against a policy you invented instead of the one he proposed.
nickle-rich40d
Might not be so bad if obamacare never happened. Gov has a way of screwing up markets it intervenes in.
nickle-rich40d
Libtard voters want the gov setting prices which always goes so well.
nickle-rich40d
Polls are not truthy at all. In fact they are often manipulated for propaganda.
betpro341d
Talarico is leading in almost every poll. So unless polls in Texas suddenly reversed their pro-GOP bias in 2018 to a pro-DEM, Talarico is really well positioned
betpro341d
"Talarico should run adds with his mistress in London, and cheating on his wife" I think you meant Paxton, whose wife left him on "biblical grounds", i.e. cheating
LuckNorris43d
well they voted for trump so are they not dumb enough? its debatable xd
themightyslug44d
EXCEPT you don't have to get your address validated before the election. You can resolve your suspense status at the polling place by completing a Statement of Residence. For voter ID, you can present one of the following: Texas driver's license, Texas Election Identification Certificate, Texas personal ID card, Texas handgun license, U.S. military ID with photograph, U.S. citizenship certificate with photograph, or U.S. passport (book or card). And if you don't possess one of those and cannot reasonably obtain one, you can fill out a Reasonable Impediment Declaration. The poll worker cannot question the reasonableness of your impediment, and you can still cast a regular ballot by presenting one of the following supporting documents: voter-registration certificate, certified birth certificate or other qualifying birth document, current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or another government document showing your name and address. So these 1.2 million people haven't lost their ability to vote, nor do they have to get their addresses validated before Election Day. They may have an additional paperwork step at the polls, which could still create some turnout friction, but THEY CAN STILL VOTE. Do not let them take away your Constitutional right.
ChetChetwick44d
Texas is suspending 1.2 million voters leading up to the election, that's a big break for Paxton. Folks can try to get their addresses validated but I don't know how many of them are aware or can do it in time.
Teutonik44d
LOL
AnEggplant45d
LMAO this market still pricing this race as a tossup. Paxton could definitely win! But it's less likely than Talarico winning.
JustTheFacts45d
This market doesn't reflect reality even considering the GOP cheat factor in Texas. Every day, Paxton loses more ground.
0xB7E3058376F9A009acEa708Fd2e1dbE9e3989b0e-173018108928445d
The state is overwhelmed by boys in girls' sports and Sharia Law, and all Dems want to talk about is affordability, healthcare, and war!
hdtomo46d
The markets are trying way too hard to stop Talarico pricing more than 50%...
ItsRigg3d47d
Neither are gonna happen lol
Panic1147d
She needs to get onboard fast or the DNC might throw her to the wolves. The primary is over.
Panic1147d
This comes down to a few simple things: 1) is Talarico 3 points better than Beto was in ‘18 OR is Paxton 3 points worse that Cruz was? 2) is the political environment or demographic changes 3 points more favorable to Dems than ‘18? If either of those are yes Talarico wins. And that’s exactly what markets and polls are predicting. No amount of “Texas is red because Trump” copium will help with those facts.
0x69eDe75eA271d7b229f44b05f55F6edeD97565Fd-178073102119450d
TRY GETTING JUST THE Facts1111111111111111111
Donnie195751d
i agree that the 10,000 kids taking gender pills and the 10 men competing in women's sports are the biggest issues affecting america. me and homer are proud to be one-issue, low iq voters
Gman0151d
lol. Soo win with lies. Being a man of god is being accepting to all even if you disagree. Talarico should run adds with his mistress in London, and cheating on his wife. Being corrupt and being impeached by the Texas legislature. Not to mention let’s talk about republicans worrying about making Washington pretty while the war in Iran looks like there’s no end in site.
themightyslug54d
You obviously can’t afford to buy a fucking clue. We consistently rank dead last nationally in healthcare, not because we don’t have the best hospitals and doctors, but because we have the lowest number of people with access.
MLBot54d
You do nothing but lose on polymarket. Best of luck to you, though.
MLBot54d
Our health care is great and I can EASILY afford everything I need.
sports155d
Yeah that fake leftist moralizing doesn't work anymore. Welcome to 2026
themightyslug57d
Oh yes. Please. Run those ads. I don’t know a single Texan who gives a fuck about trans kids or men in women’s sports at this particular moment. We want better health care and to be able to afford energy and groceries.
Homer195858d
Paxton needs to start running ads. Many Texans don’t know about Talarico and his love for trans kids and men in women’s sports.
0xF29500970706853B3E9a6Ea7e241cF3A9F5B165D-176790307817258d
Paxton is to Texas as Keri Lake was to Arizona (if you don't know, look it up). She cost Arizona both a Senate AND Governor seat. And Paxton is so dirty, now Abbott is starting to do poorly in the polls as a knock on effect. Independents are disgusted that republicans elected Paxton over Cornyn in the primaries and are now questioning the entire Texas republican party. Cruz is VERY lucky he's not up for reelection.
President-XI59d
a big fall of R
PUMPAJ60d
clearly it does hahaha, texas wanst always red either
Gulgaio60d
What do you mean. Trump ended that war at least 5 times... Win after win
JulioSigma60d
makes no difference tbh. Texas is a red state and will REMAIN a red state. Never forget the golden rule: "Nothing Ever Happens"
Norco6660d
And he pardoned a pedo cant forget that one
JustTheFacts60d
Maybe because he leads in every poll and MAGA is a trainwreck
JulioSigma60d
what happened? it flipped? how is talarico in the lead now?
AnEggplant64d
I’m sure that the guy who cheated on his taxes, cheated on his wife, committed voter fraud, and got impeached by his own party has no other scandals that will come to light in the next 3 months
kimjongun12365d
Crockett still trying her best to tank the Talarico campaign lol.
kimjongun12365d
The GOP usually doesn't have endless money. They usually get outraised by Dems, especially in '24, when Kamala spent almost double what Trump spent. This cycle is completely different though, most of those billionaires that gave money to Dems in previous cycles aren't doing so now, for a variety of pretty obvious reasons. They don't wanna get targeted by Trump, and they're probably frustrated by how their money was spent by Harris. The only advantage Dems have is their superior grassroots fundraising means individual candidates raise more, this doesn't mean nothing, but they can get swamped by PACs pretty easily. Trumps personal super pac has like half a billion dollars already. I guess it's possible that things tighten up over the next couple months, if some of those billionaires see a blue wave coming and want to be back in the good graces of a Dem Senate majority, but I don't know. On this race, Paxton is clearly a generationally bad candidate, and Talarico is pretty strong, so it might not matter. Another high quality poll today has him down. In any event, the GOP is going to have to spend more than they've ever spent on a race, but they have the capacity.
JustTheFacts65d
I always hear how the GOP has endless money, yet Dems end up outraising them by election time. Dems have control of the financial capital of the world, the third largest economy in the world in Cali, and Hollywood. Kamala outraised Trump in a matter of weeks.
kimjongun12366d
Paxton's in trouble right now for sure, but I think the national party will bail him out. They've got endless money this cycle. Just a matter of who ends up having to take the hit, it's definitely gonna cost them a couple hundred million. I think his odds will get worse first, though.
PapaXeno66d
thank you for providing me with enough to know to trade against you!
CalvinDay66d
Yep. Petty much. And, I am not a Christian.
Cwwalters200266d
Paxton needs 2018 Cruz voters to cross over or a depressed Democratic turnout to win. Neither seems likely. Talarico is a 80+% favorite.
0x955ED7692D9F1622468F2dc438e95d2e3a5280A1-177918716794573d
Hate filled? Which side is the one assassinating the other?
masnjr75d
"Satan himself could run as a Republican in Texas, and Christian’s would still vote him into the senate simply because he’s not a Democrat"
JulioSigma77d
genuinely, if Talarico was going against Cornyn tho he'd be cooked af
hdtomo77d
James Talarico and Ken Paxton is textbook major candidate and subpar opponent
FCKU78d
dems havent won a senate race there since like 1988 dude its like saying Republicans have a chance in NY like not really unless they have a major candidate and the other candidate is subpar (not the case)
hdtomo78d
It's more likely than Ohio tbh
FCKU79d
yeah idk who tf thinks a dem is going to win this but ts is not happening
0x8d1815dFD200BB6e8d0440dFa720DDbFcd692e86-176205518390580d
you're getting deported
0xdC26348AD3cf81fDC42c29248E6300db5E0bF360-1761784442845109d
So much dumb stuff in one post lmao. Usa didnt even spend 100b let alone 300b that number is what companies of US, saudi qatar could invest in Iran but its very vague and nothing will probably come from it as Iran will have to accept many demands for that money to flow through. Also Israel actually never directly attacked Iran before these last few years apart from assasinations. Iran meanwhile funded proxy groups to attack israel directly so it is indeed a surprise that it took israel that long to finally attack back, funnily enough it was iran that started the rocket attacks as well. And if you are a real American and you know what Iran thinks about the US and how gladly it wants to destroy it then sure as a non american they can have nukes as they will use it on your country a lot quicker compared to europe.
0xdC26348AD3cf81fDC42c29248E6300db5E0bF360-1761784442845109d
asd
cidesui77110d
🥰🥰🥰
TCA111d
You repunlicans are demonic af, you've literally destroyed our nation with your hate and stupidity. We just lost the worst war in american history because of that monster you hate filled scum elected. unreal, spent 300b on the war and the utter surrender that clown is forced to accept is paying them 300b more in reparations!!! AND they're going to tax the oil and keep their nuclear matieral and they've be idiots not to make a nuke with those monsters in isreal attacking them all the time. All because Trump couldn't handle that Obama had made a great deal with the JCPOA. Worst "president" in AMerican history. He's destroyed this nation with his corruption and ineptitude. Anyone who voted for that freak is a traitor to this country.
TCA111d
except he's running against one of the most disgusti8ng corrupt scum in the country and even you stupid rapublicans aren't dumb enough to vote for that POS.
0x8Dd237f53Fad6C242E288e722941E7E69D5E6bA2-1770935306228116d
The momentum Talarico is experiencing is real. Not sure why this is priced so low.
Norco66116d
We will see
hdtomo117d
Polling, social media presence, the national environment and candidate reputation all viscously support Talarico winning here, and that's before you strip fundamentals weighting from polls which is essentially a free +10R weighting added to aggregators. Some whales and degens staked big on Ken Paxton when the market switched over and now it's warped
0x8d1815dFD200BB6e8d0440dFa720DDbFcd692e86-1762055183905117d
anyone betting on a democrat winning texas is retarded
0xB7E3058376F9A009acEa708Fd2e1dbE9e3989b0e-1730181089284121d
I'm not sure. He could easily win the primary, being the lead pdf file protector in the party of pdf file protectors, but I'm not so sure your average Texan loves pdf files.
ChetChetwick123d
Paxton seems like a safe bet, especially after pardoning Hoffman (watch Adam Hoffman's name in politics in the next few years), this is pretty good value lol.
binkjoe132d
it will not be
nDb4135d
Needs margin event to
