Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?
$437.1K Vol.Ends 02 Aug 2026
$437.1K Vol.Ends 02 Aug 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
peterpol368d
lol
0xDapa68d
I think we lose, well played "Yes" holders..
simpsonsprediction68d
sony about to rug pull spiderman under endgame domestically i dont think it actually surpassed so many sources showing $355M and other $360. AOL, AMC, FOX NEWS shows $255M. Who made verge decide that it is actually $360M domestically lmaoooo
patouossa68d
why is boxofficemojo showing 355m and the numbers shows 360m ?
patouossa68d
hey
uncbob68d
The Numbers has $360.09M in the weekend table but $351.09M as the Aug 2 cumulative. That exact $9M looks like the Wednesday Prime screenings. Rules say July 31-Aug 2 and only specifically mention Thursday previews. So are they really counting Wednesday money too? Because if not, this is No.
Rockofr68d
When have results?
AmmarXzio68d
it is 360
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-176422619240269d
Why did it not end up with no??
letmecookit69d
U mad bro. What a nonsense
0xDapa69d
Monday’s update puts Spider‑Man: Brand New Day at a projected $360M for the weekend, a $5M lift from yesterday’s read. Final figures are expected this afternoon. "The-Numbers on X"
Maybeforged69d
No, the record has been broken
Maybeforged69d
$360,1 - $360,5
simpsonsprediction69d
look at the rules it says jul 31th to august 2nd will only be counted and the the numbers website counting $360M is counting thursdays number on july 30th too so yes did not win lmaooo
simpsonsprediction69d
look at the rules it says jul 31th to august 2nd only and the the numbers website counting $360M is counting thursdays number on july 30th too so yes did not win lmaooo
0xDapa69d
La actualización del lunes sitúa a Spider‑Man: Brand New Day con una proyección de $360M para el fin de semana, un aumento de $5M respecto a la lectura de ayer. Se esperan las cifras finales esta tarde. "The-NUmbers"
Adonisg69d
Debería de haber una actualización de la taquilla global, aun el record de la global no se ha roto
Adonisg69d
Y falta la taquilla global, si dijeron la doméstica hoy deberia haber una actualización de la global
0xDapa69d
Lets see...
simpsonsprediction69d
polymarket rules say numbers source is from july 31st to august 2. on august 2nd the amount was $355M so technically todays update to $360M doesnt count for the domestic bet.
simpsonsprediction69d
polymarket rules say numbers source is from july 31st to august 2. on august 2nd the amount was $355M so technically todays update doesnt count for the bet.
letmecookit69d
Polymarket source says 360M. Ggs
simpsonsprediction69d
so technically the yes can still lose here provided by the sub text of the rules
whatsupboss69d
page in Rules
simpsonsprediction69d
what you mean?
IwaSperm0069d
the-numbers
Maybeforged69d
355 million is usually an estimate for the entire weekend, not just Friday and Saturday. It already includes Sunday's forecast
0xDapa69d
Which source?, in box office says 355
whatsupboss69d
check again source of polymarket rules showing 360
simpsonsprediction69d
why are there still major websites calling $355M nah this is fishy if sony ends up dethroning spiderman saying it did not pass endgame will be wild.
IwaSperm0069d
official 360m
0x12E64FB626a20954b40Bcfb94F0f4637fa8E04E1-177866880146369d
I see,it's over
simpsonsprediction69d
imagine sony comes out and says spiderman did not beat endgame
Novatan69d
Sony has not yet released its official weekend box office figures. However, variety and others are getting from comscore and it is reporting 360m, Comscore is usually the industry-standard source for tracking box office performance
Twixin69d
kkkkkkkk
CosmicCedar69d
haha I am taking the money of No holders
ImBruceWayne69d
source?
Cess69d
yes, monday morning. yesterday numbers was estimated for sunday, because the whole day hasnt ended. and it overperformed in the evening.
Cess69d
let me explain to NO holders who are in disbelief: Sony called 355m YESTERDAY, which is on Saturday. Because it was on Saturday, Sunday number is just an ESTIMATE. today Sunday ACTUAL number comes out and it OVERPERFORMED. thats why it BEAT endgame. That is always the case with the Box Office Industry: Estimated Weekend Number are released on Saturday. Actual Number Released on Sunday. You can ask ChatGPT/Gemini/Google, whatever
Novatan69d
its 360 million, ggs
0x12E64FB626a20954b40Bcfb94F0f4637fa8E04E1-177866880146369d
Isn't today Monday?
simpsonsprediction69d
who the fuck is believing variety over amc reports
Cess69d
called 355 YESTERDAY, which is on Saturday. Sunday number was an ESTIMATE. today Sunday ACTUAL number comes out and it OVERPERFORMED. thats why it BEAT endgame.
Kovolenko69d
im think its gg
deepak9769d
Check variety twitter bro
simpsonsprediction69d
almost every major website has called $355M domestically this website is ridiculous just call the no winning already no magic hands are gonna make spiderman beat endgame
simpsonsprediction69d
so much cope every major site is saying $355M domestically but the yes are still trying to hold the line lmaooooo
peterpol369d
robert downey jr will return in Doomsday ☠️
Twixin69d
2m is easy bro
simpsonsprediction69d
it aint 360m major sites already confirmed 355m cope harder
0x35a1870eDa52f5dcE9519FbD22214fb885119ed0-177615504132069d
nah bro I did buy No tho but it's only an estimation.
simpsonsprediction69d
it aint 360m major sites already confirmed 355 cope harder
ImBruceWayne69d
luckily for us, normally those numbers are oversized to have that kind of headlines you saw, but today it is final true number
Twixin69d
current projection is 360m
Oriolrq69d
In the numbers and box office both indicate 355
givemethebucks69d
cause around, 1 pm pacific time they publish final figures
givemethebucks69d
probably in next 7 hours
simpsonsprediction69d
why in a few hours? fox news, amc, and other major sites have reported $355M domestically lmaooo
ImBruceWayne69d
Hold your horses my friend, is an estimate, we will know in a few hours the final result, hopefully you are right
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-176422619240269d
Short answer: No — Spider-Man: Brand New Day did not beat Avengers: Endgame’s opening weekend record. It came extremely close, but Endgame still holds the top spot both domestically and globally. What the numbers show: Brand New Day: $355M domestic, just $2M shy of Endgame’s $357.1M record $927M global, second-biggest worldwide debut ever Avengers: Endgame: $357.1M domestic opening weekend (still #1) $1.22B global opening weekend (still #1 by a wide margin) Bottom line: Brand New Day delivered a historic, near-record performance — even surpassing Endgame in opening day previews — but Endgame’s full opening weekend record remains unbeaten.
HelloGold69d
Maybe in 1 or 2 days
Predict9069d
When result and how many days we have
Predict9069d
How much time we have to see results
Deterrance69d
no 355 is the total of 3 days
YourAnimeGirl69d
Any showtime begin before 6:00 am on Monday will count for Sunday. Summerslam is too small to take any effect. The movie is landing about 360 RN and no reason for ~3m missing
simpsonsprediction69d
honestly if wwe summerslam didn't fall under the weekend release of spiderman it would have passed endgame domestically lmaoooo
simpsonsprediction69d
no shares will be increasing the closer we get to early morning 3 cents was cheap
YourAnimeGirl69d
I sell at 96 because with me that is enough btw
YourAnimeGirl69d
Sony use normal drop when now Friday and Saturday will not very over index because no IMAX mean even it drop like normal it is like 10% drop today (Canada sale is increase vs Saturday)
Giorehal69d
With the current estimate only about 0.6% of undercounting is needed to beat endgame. And to reach 360M about 1.4%. This could easily beat endgame and 360M+ is also possible.
simpsonsprediction69d
usually when major sites start reporting the estimated domestic amount that's the near the exact amount. have faith its not passing endgame. doomsday will be the one to pass endgame domestically.
givemethebucks69d
hope it didn't but 355m is the projected figure mate. can't rule out the possibility of overtaking endgame given the margin is too damn small
simpsonsprediction69d
i don't think spiderman passed endgame more sites reporting 355M domestically
givemethebucks69d
endgame collection should be adjusted for inflation 😭
simpsonsprediction69d
more sites are reporting 355M it did not pass endgame!
Cess69d
355 is just estimate on saturday. it overperformed on sunday thats why.
CarlChong69d
Try Google search. Box office: the film opened to a colossal $355 million domestically in north america. I don't know why I still losing my money?!
stierdgen69d
Wrong, that was the estimate.
Rockofr69d
355 million is official
stierdgen69d
Guess my analysis was spot on, 360M+ is also on the table now.
stierdgen69d
Not holding so my opinion is probably worthless BUT, previous estimates have undercounted by anywhere from 2-7% historically including the estimate for endgame when it came out, if you lowball it and say they are only 2% off its still enough to beat endgame. Smart money is on "YES" here and I think its fair value is probably closer to 95%.
EM00769d
NO
Twixin69d
the offficial reports are still not out
simpsonsprediction69d
Brand New Day’s domestic premiere figure came in just $2 million under the record held by Avengers: Endgame since 2019.
simpsonsprediction69d
its over "Sony and Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day pulled in $355 million domestically"
simpsonsprediction69d
spiderman will be $100K to $1M short from beating endgame it won't pass it
