Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
$1.5M Vol.Ends 05 Oct 2026
$1.5M Vol.Ends 05 Oct 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Congratulations246d
89%...
CoinTrick6d
he is already over 50%..
Magician53426d
It seems that you are not familiar with the vote counting process in Brazil
sqsb6d
já está abaixo de 50%, qual seria o milagre?
Wagner2757386d
FLAVITO will get approximately 47.99%, based on current data, and CONSIDERING EACH PROVINCES' POPULATION
Wagner2757386d
My little poor boy, do more maths!
Cassian376d
50,2% e os estados mais atrasados são os do nordeste, esquece vencer no 1º Turno
bostonbucket6d
VAMOS FLAVITO FINANCIAME EL OJO DE BIFE EN DON JULIO
0xf585…6d
Yup, bet more on Yes please
Fruktfisk6d
On average the count is ahead in districts favoring Bolsonaro but currently he's pulling 51% of the vote, far from impossible he wins in the first round.
manlets6d
I’m watching the guardian
ClariseStarling0076d
what site can i see the live results
manlets6d
Flavio 50.5 rn
flanelinha7d
free money betting on NO
0xD8520F66f7146520a713bcbDf9b3f000BC4DA238-178261961897724d
com certeza nao deve ser maior que a do lulla!
0x375574dCa1414fdFF730b1c16Cf7F0b9779B81FB-1765011972580118d
Não sei se o mais estúpido é essa frase ou quem leva ela a sério
0x375574dCa1414fdFF730b1c16Cf7F0b9779B81FB-1765011972580118d
É uma folha em branco? Acho que você quis dizer "tem uma ficha corrida"
gakov183d
O marqueteiro do ratinho com certeza é alguém que sabe muito de política brasileira.
gakov183d
Bota o título da matéria completo, faltou: "Disse o marqueteiro do Ratinho", uau. Se você está tão certo disso, entra all-in então.
0x703A28e5478dDC7c92dfE22773bEdA63C5C5afB5-1771866102731183d
Flavio Bolsonaro e uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno: Estadao 11/04
0x703A28e5478dDC7c92dfE22773bEdA63C5C5afB5-1771866102731183d
Estadao: Flavio Bolsonaro eh uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno
gakov184d
Pesquisa mais recente dando 35% pro Flávio e 33% pro Lula, mas segundo a sua "probabilidade", a chance deveria ser 75-25 de não ter segundo turno, confia...
0x703A28e5478dDC7c92dfE22773bEdA63C5C5afB5-1771866102731184d
You dont know nothing about the researchs and probability, it shoul be 75-25
gakov185d
Yeah, this price doesn't make any sense...
TakeItEasyMyBrotherCharlie185d
I'd give less than 5% chance of this happening... I'm putting some money on it
gakov189d
Qual a pegadinha?
0x52c08f988D22daE5E3A69Ed7eF17b03ec09c2b37-1768938878318252d
Only FHC won in the first round. The country is divided. Almost 7% white/null votes, Lula doesn't even have 40% of intentions as of january.
NIVALDOMIR2025252d
Lula Vai ganhar so no segundo turno
NIVALDOMIR2025252d
Eu acredito que Lula ganha so no segundo turno!!!!
Ugabugaletsgo270d
better than cdi
drinbet329d
wrong dates on end...on top should be 2026
felipecast336d
Kkkkkkkkkkkkkk
Milton-piscadas340d
i agree coconut, not the best bet for us rn
0xfA3B548384608DB21A3d1891555C1501867624Ba-1757423579219341d
se depender do alexandre de moraes nao vai ter segundo tuno.
Ugabugaletsgo343d
Add Claudio Castro, please
Ugabugaletsgo346d
Not gonna happen. Doesn’t matter the candidate…
Ugabugaletsgo346d
They fixed
Ugabugaletsgo346d
Nobody asked Fernando
Ugabugaletsgo346d
UGABUGA lets goooooooo
nomaderaiz351d
free money honestly just low liquidity and it will take too long aswell
archaic352d
Fernando Morais, Lula’s biographer and friend, said he believed that if the 2026 election were held today, “Lula would win in the first round”
Ugabugaletsgo363d
Almost impossible for a president to be elected on the first round in Brazil. The country is very divided and both sides have high amount of desapproval
SidartaGautama363d
Really?
Ugabugaletsgo364d
easy bet...
ehrmantraut366d
the estimated end date is wrong
JVCLHP387d
Fernando Henrique Cardoso em 1998
