Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
$204K Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
$204K Vol.
66%▲2%
$204K Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$204K Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
vpvp26108d
Hey
0xf3f734E082CbEfAEFeE359df713576A83B35C259-1779451491007108d
Hi all!
Kerbalz121d
Hey Dario, free your models
Channel4159d
Now, let’s take a quick look at BTC. The current market capitalization stands at $1.65 trillion. The 12-month low was at $65k, which corresponds to a market cap of $1.3 trillion. Even if BTC were to drop by nearly 25% again, its market capitalization would still be roughly $400 billion away from the Series G valuation of Anthropic. 50/50 is complete mispriced
Channel4159d
This trend is clearly reflected in the current Series G: some of Anthropic’s earliest backers are reportedly skipping this round entirely. They are waiting for the IPO. The reasoning is straightforward: bankers expect Anthropic to list at $400 billion to $500 billion when it goes public, possibly as early as October 2026. If your entry price is $900 billion and the IPO comes in below that, you are underwater on a private investment before the lockup period even ends
Channel4159d
Currently, the probability of an Anthropic IPO in 2026 is seen at around 60%. This suggests an even chance that the optimistic $ 900 billion valuation represents the 'ceiling' for this market. In the alternative scenario, where Anthropic goes public later this year, it is unlikely to list before Q4. Analysts assume that even with a $900 billion private funding valuation, Anthropic will likely list at a significantly lower price.
Channel4159d
The market is completely mispriced. Let’s look at the numbers: Anthropic received a valuation of $380 billion in February 2026. Now, barely three months later, an extremely optimistic scenario suggests a valuation of $900 billion. This implies that Anthropic is expected to become nearly 2.5 times more valuable within just three months. The upcoming Series G is the final round before an IPO.
0x933c75ec4aF87D3Db051E3CFDa5A0ee5C24aB820-1772744284170162d
Dario Amodei here: yes
kulihu163d
gn vi fh
ForSale165d
Will Anthropic $380 billion flip BTC $1,527 billion by December 31?
