Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

$6.3M Vol.Ends 04 Nov 2026

Democratic Party
$3.7M Vol.
64%▲1%
Republican Party
$2.6M Vol.
37%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments (103)

Jimbobo20h

DEMS NEED TO WIN BOTH CHAMBERS AND IMPEACH DRUMP OR ELSE DRUMP WILL GET MORE YOUNG MEN TO DIE SO THAT ISRAEL CAN EXPAND ITS BORDERS

Roeman1d

Lovely track record

iutwpfal1d

You're the type

ThatOneLatino4d

I cannot wait to take all of your dorks's money!

Roeman5d

Keep dreaming, no coming back from this failure.

ItsRigg3d5d

Inflation is a third of Biden's now 😂😂😂. His popularity bottomed now, it will climb back up because Iran was fixed. It is just a matter of time.

Roeman5d

Or 8% mortgage rates, 6% treasury yield

Roeman5d

Yeah, record high prices, 30% approval and waging the most unpopular war in decades is a great campaigner

ItsRigg3d5d

Congresso will flip too

tengi5d

lol

0x5C042944fFFB75AafFB49f1EE05Eac5488B99dCF-17801698260697d

arguing on poly market get a job ngga

Roeman8d

😂😂😂

ItsRigg3d9d

It's funny because you'd name the perpretators before, but the real case would always contradict you and justify the agents, so now you revert to giving vague descriptions.

ItsRigg3d9d

You won't do sh*t

0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-178207701016110d

dude is trying to justify that behavior, like yeah let's breach every single human right.. Melt that fu*king worthless ICE

ItsRigg3d12d

Comeback on the way 👀

Zinner12d

GO DEM S

dPredictor12d

everyone who fills up their car or pays for their groceries already knows

dPredictor12d

name ONE reason, maggot, ill wait

randyandi12d

why should they win - you MAGA moron

Kanat199712d

I know who will win.

Never-KYS15d

There is no way the Republican pull this one through with such PPI

Lonal15d

The Republicans should win, but who knows at the end of the day.

ItsRigg3d18d

Just 4 more weeks, your CCP journalist will surely pull it off

dPredictor18d

btw Katie Phang (lawyer/journalist) is winning her lawsuit and it is possible on sep 24th DOJ will be forced to release EP files with trump's name (which were withheld until now to protect him) if that happens it is game over for him, simple as that

MeNoDatNutReelMuni18d

MAGA doesn't care about that. They don't care about rapists, pedophiles, fraudsters (unless it makes democrats look bad), corruption, or even the constitution. There's a special place in hell for the GOP and their supporters

dPredictor18d

it is hilarious, polls put the race at coin flip odd, GOP whales who think chances are 30/70 are too stupid and need to be separated from their money

dPredictor18d

diesel already hit $10 in parts of the country. tired of winning yet?

dPredictor18d

ICE shot a man in the back, yoinked him out of the hospital, drove him a hundred miles, shackled, with a bullet next to his spine, then made him sleep in the floor, now he is paralyzed. Even if you are all for 'mass deportations' what they did is a crime against humanity, and will flip Texas blue for good.

German24070619d

Lets go

hdtomo19d

The winner takes it all

White.Monster21d

More like what didn’t happen 😉

0xd11BA069fdaba1293DE958A26E1db271E832Ac3D-176757954951421d

Lol now inflation in US higher than during Biden's peaks, fuel prices will be high until Hormuz straight opens and there is no reason Iran let's that go happen, this clown installed tarrifs against western world and lost all its allies, it increased domestic price in US, and many other things happend.

0xd11BA069fdaba1293DE958A26E1db271E832Ac3D-176757954951421d

Ahaha lol yeh right there is a free education, health care, subsidized power and water bills, and interest free first home loans))

0xd11BA069fdaba1293DE958A26E1db271E832Ac3D-176757954951421d

Far rights always lose in Europe even if the come to power their approval rate drops to 0 in 6 month max... but it doesn't matter cuz far rights harw u sane as lefts or even more

0x958b553e802bb96761046A853BD7646dF3f4a2fe-176319968788323d

Let me guess. The threshold for meeting the label of "serious nations" is whether you like the results.

Norco6623d

Can some of you maga morons buy gop stocks? Im tryna but at a better price

ItsRigg3d23d

Sweden is the most lunatic communist country in Europe, I'm talking about serious nations.

0x958b553e802bb96761046A853BD7646dF3f4a2fe-176319968788323d

The left just kicked out the incumbent right-wing coalition in Sweden this past Sunday, with Sweden's version of MAGA falling to third place.

ItsRigg3d23d

We'll see about that, ch il d mu rd er er

flybat23d

You’re on a sinking ship with a pedophile captain.

hdtomo24d

No party, let alone incumbant, has reversed a +9 (or, holistically, +13) generic ballot poll in US history, precedent if anything argues that it will only exacerbate. Odds are closer to 80-85% and the house is essentially 99% bar a deeply exogenous event. America's anti-Trump stance on Iran indicates that the most common cause for such a rare reversal is also acting against him.

Norco6624d

😂😂😂 I would sell if i were you

ItsRigg3d24d

The left is collapsing in Europe. Delulu hopium is high with you people.

0x8C0d449a67DD6b5D8f5D687929D7141854B3d87A-177427326092824d

The only confused people are the insecure closeted gay men in the Republican Party. The only one braking the law is the current administration and its idiotic voters storming the capitol. Not a single democratic voter that I know supports unregulated borders and neither do any of the politicians (Biden deported over 270k in his last year in office btw). The most American thing is to support peoples freedom which is currently being suppressed. Not a single Democratic politician is a communist and only a small handful are democratic socialists that are not even remotely communist. The only voters that are radical are those threatening other Americans with violence. Never vote agin.🤡

HDTomo-22925d

I take a 3 hour nap and suddenly the Democrats are starting to be priced correctly wtf happened

NoiseC25d

Gas below $3!

flybat25d

this is aging really well.

flybat25d

holy shit. bottoms falling out. oil skyrocketing, Iran is a disaster, Canada and Europe are signing deals and making us look dumb. GOP got nothing but racist tropes and conspiracies. it's fucking over.

hdtomo26d

GTA 6, 56 Dems in the Senate, Avengers Doomsday

hdtomo26d

Said nobody ever

sibuscus29d

Unfortunately democrats

0xC9DB841A167197796503AB6303f49105BD1CAbF7-177932529510431d

That's all you Maga morons worry about. The color of people's skin and what someone's private parts look like. Maga is done in November. I wonder if you'll still protect pedophiles then?

Nana65hi32d

Soon

darkwight33d

This comment might make sense to someone who actually believes brown people are the true source of your economic issues…. Billionaires paid a lot of money to get you to believe that nonsense. They’re very satisfied that their investment is going so well.

hdtomo39d

Biden can handle a major global financial event without recession and he's got dementia, but Trump can lose a war, double the deficit while somehow hurting the economy, reduce government efficiency, perform hundreds of insider trades, on top of being a total dick and eroding democracy and it's just "b-b-but Trump bad!"

KEFE39d

my man has zero dollars riding on this, but for whatever reason still seems to be invested into this bet...

huobi505440d

democrats pleeease

0x42ac8575C599C7eaa2bE37db17A8038ECa79cE8B-177921325715140d

Just a reminder Democrats have no policies and will 100% return America to the Biden era inflation / open borders / increased crime all while telling you that you're supposed to be happy you're being replaced by millions of foreigners. Clowns all of you. "B-b-but Trump bad, Iran war... 🥺" You guys look ret4rded. Trump already proved he can get gas below $3 in 40 states and once the war ceases it'll go back down but you guys would rather we flood our borders again and grant mass amnesty to people who don't follow our entry laws.

0x42ac8575C599C7eaa2bE37db17A8038ECa79cE8B-177921325715140d

Are you mentally challenged? Democrats are the worst thing to ever happen to America. You're all gender confused, anti-law, anti-border, anti-america, communist, and radical. Never vote again 🤡 you have no reason to convince anyone to vote Democrat because Democrats couldn't even keep the border secure under Biden. You're a joke

0xfF2c1a68C122f721B7A632d85c5EeA40534362f0-178039435083745d

Nate silver model prediction showing dems with a 57% of winning moved the markets since he is given credit for being a knowledgeable stats based modeler.

valetecaolho48d

That is the beauty of markets I suppose. Whales will only be whales if they continue to make money. If, in this specific case they happen to be taking the wrong side of the bet....

hdtomo49d

This fuckery about keeping it close for the Republicans because some whales can't wrap their heads around the Democrats winning needs to stop. It happened to Texas for 8 months too.

0x24d6e74fA73eA49E0A9E7fcAA6A56FD4188B6e3c-176000246083050d

Democrats

dPredictor54d

headline 'Federal Court Blocks U.S. Postal Service from Implementing Executive Order Restricting Mail Voting'

dPredictor54d

because

dPredictor54d

look at this headline "Federal Court Blocks U.S. Postal Service from Implementing Executive Order Restricting Mail Voting" Trump's Attempt to block mail-in votes failed and the marked moved acordingly (Republicans are more likely to be old retired folks who don't work for a living and can go vote in person)

0x8e8A223f81908A76E4c2fa0144F3268D4fA5a37e-177884496569455d

moron, keep talking and show people ehu they need to vote you idiots to the curb

67Shadow55d

This is the real answer.

Magician534257d

GiaPet1757d

I think their odds are correct...I had the cross happening 3rd week of September...Vote Democrats.

flybat58d

Nate Silver forecast came out

snoopy232258d

At around 8am a federal judge issued a national wide rulling on a suit brought by the women's league in Massachusetts against parts of trumps election integrity order, specifically a part of the order that directs the postmaster to withhold mail in ballots from states that dont turn over voter rolls. The trump administration asked the Supreme Court to take up the case and markets reacted accordingly.

0xb63dfbD40F3C32289DE697f269de7D45D89d3F33-176418565495458d

Not if they exposed as dr fauci's psychopaths.

nichcagefan59d

Texas, Michigan, and Alaska are all trending lean dem from coin flip in the last few days

MartonMagyar59d

i mean a socialist candidate with 96% chance to win just lost in WI so it doesnt seem like a big deal r

aleksandmoney59d

manipulate

mcpetrus59d

Why did this swing from 55–45 for the Republicans to 53–47 for the Democrats within a single day?

aleksandmoney62d

Republicans😎

0xAa4Ba374cDCd7CB79f5C5BA8cbCf7910eBeeBa09-172098653544865d

Planning on doing the same lol

JJ8966d

Nate Silver is a clown who is not very good at his job, look at his coverage of the last elections.

0x61d40726d2b4c13f7F77E8D7F91ca9747974d00E-177896701060369d

Betting on Republicans, so if I lose, I'm still happy

hyper-liquid-xyz70d

Iran is allegedly doing cyberattack in US water facilities. Trump denies that they are running out of munitions but more and more US military are telling him this - Hormuz Letter, X.

hyper-liquid-xyz70d

US surrender to Iran state in 3, 2, 1...

timebrotime71d

REP Forever😍

aleksandmoney71d

😄😄😄 unrealistic

aleksandmoney71d

😑

White.Monster72d

Gut feeling dems take it

RCRVNJ80d

appen already

345fg888d

5690987dcfg88d

LongShot-Louie99d

imagine if it comes down to alaskan voters being too stupid to tell the two Dans apart.

polymark100d

correction: my bad, he's actually much more confident that Dems take the House than GOP takes Senate. He thinks the Senate is more of a toss up with a slight lead in odds towards GOP (basically exactly what this market currently has priced in.

polymark101d

Nate Silver thinks Dems take the House but GOP keeps Senate

polymark101d

Not showing up to something is not the same as showing up. Not showing up is the default because theres obviously tons of political events and most people don't go to any of them. Zuckerberg absolutely cares about optics, he has a massive PR team. His company could be regulated by either political party . The fallout with Zuck for the 2016 election (cambridge analytica, russia collusion narratives etc) led to all kinds of global regulation and severely damaged his reputation.

dfvwsdfgb102d

for

hdtomo104d

I'm aware that the maps are harsh, but 57% in favour of the Republicans is pure insanity

0x91D9873D05034054FBf3140385c527ffC482216c-1761235938626109d

I'm sure this would be 473849x more accurate if you could bet from the United States. I though this was a free country. Dosen't seem like it.

0x5F913e2e9F32a24a450764803E19c3455E6545B2-1773595868349111d

Zuckerberg doesn’t care about the optics, and he probably has become more right-wing as Silicon Valley has gone that way. I didn’t see Elon protesting at an antifa rally. Does that mean by not showing up he now supports Antifa?

polymark114d

Yeah but if its a blowout in the midterms then GOP loses control of congress & being seen with Trump at the UFC event (viewed by hundreds of millions) will then hurt him with the Dems & with broader public given Trump's approval is quite low now. He could still be in Trump's good graces by speaking to him privately or more subtle means as other business leaders do. Also, by that logic, why didn't Elon, Bezos or many other CEOs show up to the event?

0x5F913e2e9F32a24a450764803E19c3455E6545B2-1773595868349115d

It proves that CEOs feel that in this command economy driven by fealty to the White House, cozying up to Trump is a necessary business decision. That is all it means.

polymark117d

This might be a dumb heuristic, but I wonder if Zuck being at UFC 250 shows the Midterms won't be a huge Blue wave/Dem blowout. Given Zuck has internal access to some of the most relevant data (i.e. FB, IG etc.) about sentiment toward both parties & doesn't have an obligation to be visible alongside Trump/GOP it perhaps indicates he thinks its worthwhile to be on Trump/GOP's good side for the remainder of his term. Was trying to think of how to trade that if its true, and wonder if this market is the best to do it as Dems could still take House even without a blowout but this seems like more of a coin toss.