US-EU trade agreement by July 9?
$257K Vol.Ends 09 Jul 2025
$257K Vol.Ends 09 Jul 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the European Union between May 26, and July 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and EU as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both named entities will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the European Union, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
SrBoniato459d
Nobody can be 100% sure. Yesterday, Trump said he was “probably two days off from sending EU a letter.” It was the final threat to force them to close the deal by Wednesday. I’m not denying it’s difficult, but it’s probable that one of those decisions will be the agreement
johnnyA459d
You realize that means he’s announcing more tariffs right
SrBoniato459d
[link removed]
TripleBaka460d
[link removed]
Al3xxx460d
40h, 22m, 14s
Mr.Thorne460d
40 hours
SrBoniato460d
“ The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both named entities will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs”
defnotakon460d
[link removed]
SrBoniato460d
A preliminary deal that sets a tariff is still a deal. The rules don’t require a final, ratified treaty. The framework deal to set a 10% tariff meets the criteria.
ExceptionalAmerican460d
https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august/will-trump-agree-to-a-tariff-agreement-with-european-union-in-july?tid=1751961141494
ExceptionalAmerican460d
First sentence: The European Union is aiming to clinch a preliminary trade deal with the US this week. You want to bet the other market yes, not this one.
SrBoniato460d
A deal that sets a 10% tariff isn’t nothing. It’s a specific agreement.
ExceptionalAmerican460d
This means there is no deal, no tentative deal, nothing other than a bona fide understanding to get the deal done asap
Mr.Thorne460d
Says this week. Maybe they will wait after Wednesday.
SrBoniato460d
[link removed]
Mr.Thorne460d
47 hours
ExceptionalAmerican460d
The eu only agrees to it if they get immediate tariff relief which takes the pressure of them to negotiate quickly
SrBoniato460d
An agree to continue isn’t enough. But the EU’s agreement in principle aims to lock in 10% tariffs and avoid 50%. That’s a concrete mutual agreement on tariffs, fitting the “publicly announced lowering” rule
SrBoniato460d
An agreement in principle is a real deal. It sets the base tariff, not just an agreement to keep talking
ExceptionalAmerican460d
A minimum qualifier would be the India mini trade deal. An agreement to continue negotiations would fail to qualify as a yes resolution.
Analista.460d
Skeleton agreement was in the air last time check. Rn i blindly bought at 21yes
ExceptionalAmerican460d
You need an agreement Wednesday to avoid a loss of position. Us/EU will agree the continue negotiations, post pone additional tariffs due to good faith negotiations, however no type of agreement or deal will have been made.
SrBoniato460d
That’s exactly why he extended. It splits the political deadline (July 9) from the technical one (Aug 1). They need an “agreement in principle” this week to avoid failure.
ExceptionalAmerican460d
Likely no agreement by July 9th, however a deal will likely be made before August. EU is likely negotiating in good faith.
Mr.Thorne460d
Just you wish. 48 hours. Why do you think he extended? 😂
SrBoniato461d
The Aug 1 extension is just the tariff date. The political deal is still happening before the 9th. Easy YES.
DeltaMu461d
Tariffs have been delayed for the EU to hash out an agreement... July 9th no longer a cliff edge
ineedmassage461d
I need some dick dick dick dick
DeltaMu461d
Betting against EU bureaucracy.... easy money
Olcan461d
They backed off and looking for a solution similar to UK
arttheking461d
what should they say? we don’t need agreement? they will say anything but deal with EU gonna be very complex and it’s not ready
EricZemmourmoney461d
Go go
Lowtaperfade461d
yes is still cheap lol
Toncar16461d
EU Spokesperson: Our aim remains to find an agreement before July 9th. EU has made good progress in talks on an agreement in principle with the US
ineedmassage461d
Big black balls
ineedmassage461d
Ez
0x7d17741e8bF461d
Trump says US nears trade deals as tariff deadline delayed [link removed]
0x7d17741e8bF461d
The real deadline for the tariff agreement is 1 August. Trump noted in his letter that the new tariffs will take effect that day, so 1 August is also the EU’s cutoff date.
Porx461d
Hassett: Some trade talks could extend beyond July 9 deadline. As I said
JeanneAuSecours9462d
even it's not done, it's so misspriced. Should be between 40 and 50
ineedmassage462d
this is a test
JeanneAuSecours9462d
it's logical that this deal will arrive in the coming week. And DJT said that he will not give any extra deadline for EU
Toncar16462d
[link removed]
Toncar16462d
US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH EU PROGRESSING: FOX NEWS
DrDiscopowder462d
I share your view - seems highly unlikely that Trump would just extend deadline out of 'good faith' (i.e. he needs something that he can use to 'claim victory', especially after 'TACO'-term has gained popularity with his favorite media).
Analista.463d
He needs to justify that politically somehow. An interim trade agreement sound just right for europe
Porx463d
I think the most likely scenario is that Trump will simply move the deadline for everyone to August 9th.
Analista.463d
Idk if you see my reasoning, i’m too tired to argument it better than this
Analista.463d
You think there is ~65% chance of trump saying something on the line of “negotiation with EU went terrible! But i’ll not enact the 50% tariff on them rn out of compassion”. Imo they’ll do a framework agreement where EU accepts the 10% baseline, and agree to take more time to negotiate the rest. A scenario where Trump does not declare “more winning” is highly unlikely to me
Porx463d
It is possible, but not as much as what is offered on this market.
Analista.463d
Ofc they are. But still they get some framework agreement
Porx463d
So far, Europeans say the negotiations are going poorly.
Analista.463d
Nah but whatever they agree will be tariff related and hence a yes
Porx463d
Do the "yes" bettors seriously think Trump's deadline is a serious argument? He'll push it back, as he did with tariffs in April and about 10 times in negotiations with Putin.
DrDiscopowder464d
https://polymarket.com/event/50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9/50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9?tid=1751604796686
ExceptionalAmerican464d
They are also demanding immediate tariff relief
KeyhanK465d
whats happening?
Analista.465d
Ratification of a possible agreement means that an agreement has been found first. Bessent said that they will work the whole weekend on it, for what reason according to you? They’ll reach an interim agreement before july 9, same as most of the deals that made other market resolve yes. Nothing different here.
ExceptionalAmerican465d
They also want immediate sanction relief before an agreement is made. Trump won't do that. And the EU is far to bureaucratic.
Analista.465d
The EU is willing to accept the 10% baseline. Any agreement in principle that recognize this and it is aimed to continue talks after deadline qualify for a yes resolution.
Mr.Thorne466d
Senate and Congress will discuss sanctions 9th of July to vote in bill by the order of Trump. Check this bet, yes is so cheap! https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-august/will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-august?tid=1751402857192
DrDiscopowder466d
https://polymarket.com/event/50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9/50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9?tid=1751401989759
polgenius467d
9 July is very close, too difficult
Patroclus467d
MIRAN SAYS HE IS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT TRADE DEAL WITH THE EU
CrunchyCoyote471d
This is much more 50-50. France is strongly opposed. German position is desperate but weak.
Toncar16474d
Still Far from agreement “EU READIES RETALIATORY TARIFFS TO SECURE BETTER TRADE DEAL WITH TRUMP - FT“
DrDiscopowder481d
https://polymarket.com/event/50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9/50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9?tid=1750162566524
Toncar16481d
[link removed]
Toncar16481d
[link removed]
Toncar16481d
Not going to happen “TRUMP SAYS EU NOT YET OFFERING A FAIR DEAL” + “TRUMP SAYS PHARMA TARIFFS COMING VERY SOON“
perseo482d
*EU PREPARED TO ACCEPT FLAT 10% US TARIFF UNDER CONDITIONS: HB
S888482d
And agreement to do nothing and postpone talks doesn't count guys ;)
RomkaRS487d
I think just some whale by a lot of NO stock
TommasoMarru487d
what happened?
DrDiscopowder488d
Other market will go to Yes if no delays announced. If delay is announced, it will be by agreement in this market.
DrDiscopowder488d
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the 50% tariff, as announced by the Trump administration, must have passed without being further delayed or suspended.
MrMustaciosul492d
they can not make a trade agreeement until july 9 and the tariffs still won t go up since they were going to go up only after july 9
Qualitative492d
TACO
DrDiscopowder492d
Either this market, or this is completely mispriced: https://polymarket.com/event/50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9/50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9
MrMustaciosul494d
whales , car bought 1000 shares of this 4 hours ago , that was 5000 usdc in a 35000 volume market
Qualitative494d
Optimism on this market but pessimism on the end of June market: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july/will-the-us-agree-to-a-trade-deal-with-the-european-union-before-july?tid=1749050760595 This one is down to 25%
Xus75494d
Why is there suddenly so much optimism around the trade agreement?
LordProtector500d
this market is very vage, and possibly a uma scam.
KaspaMaxi500d
why is it so much lower
Frosen502d
same bet with 9 day shorter deadline trading at 52% rn
Frosen502d
https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july/will-the-us-agree-to-a-trade-deal-with-the-european-union-before-july?tid=1748359471895
Rizk502d
"The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both named entities will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement". So if there is no agreement and both sides don't raise or lower tariffs to avoid economic damage and some asshole tweets that it's a hush hush agreement then this resolved to yes?
Rizk502d
Rules are shady.
johnnyA502d
I’ll dispute if they try to pull any scams. They’re also gonna have to get UMA to vote for Y on the 6/30 one
LordProtector502d
scam market
johnnyA502d
18c spread between this and the 6/30 market is crazy
OverlookHotel502d
Trump's lies count? This market sounds UMA-fucked
