Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
$2.7M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
$99.4K Vol.
2%
$2.7M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$99.4K Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement. An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia. The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
0x885bA142eA9b71C13802558240eB7D45E263eCd8-175926951434356d
*Putin: ruzzia never attack anyone. He's a biggest lier in the world
butterbrot105d
They havent recognized anything in 2022-2025 they certainly wont in 2026 with better funding and munitions than ever
Voidofhype154d
*PUTIN: I THINK THE UKRAINE CONFLICT IS COMING TO AN END Any end to the war will include new land claims based (in part) on battlefield front lines. 12c for this market compared to 40c for peace deal before 2027 makes this an easy choice. *PUTIN: I HOPE THE IRAN CONFLICT WILL END AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
GautengWolf170d
I think there’s a cleaner path here that avoids all the messy constitutional and institutional hurdles of formally “ceding” territory. Imagine a deal where Ukraine **formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea**, but frames it as part of a **time-bound or conditional arrangement** (e.g. 50–100 years, linked to a broader settlement or future review). You’re not rewriting the entire Ukrainian constitution around territorial loss in a permanent sense — you’re structuring it as a **legal recognition within a negotiated framework**. From this market’s perspective, that should still resolve **Yes**. The rules don’t require permanence, they require **formal recognition**. So even if it’s embedded in a transitional or conditional agreement, once Ukraine makes that legal acknowledgment, the condition is met. In other words, the market is about **de jure recognition**, not about how politically or constitutionally “final” the arrangement feels in practice.
CryptoLox177d
Crimea is Russia
Master42212d
ah, so you're just a russian nazi bitch, now it all makes sense
Master42212d
that is the silliest thing I've read in quite a long time. You glorification of the "paper bear" nazi russia is naive at best
Zalypensky212d
XOXOL=PIDARAS
Zalypensky212d
So, how did it go? Did Russia lose, and the clown? Is it spring already? RUSSIA WILL NEVER lose to anyone; it's simply impossible.
Snow-White261d
BROKE-ASS UKRONAZI FILTH, hahahaha, go die for your beliefs like Adolf, COWARDLY LITTLE NAZI!
Isidare277d
The land's ownership is unknown, but the glory has always belonged to Ukraine.
ArialBlack279d
Zelenskyy: We have neither legal nor moral right to cede territory
betpro3286d
Only North Korea has recognised the newly occupied territories as Russia and only 13 countries recognise Russian soverieignty over Crimea.
ChainPunkTrader297d
saw the flow shift 2 days before odds moved, alerts dont miss
Floop304d
Russia will lose this war this winter but Putin can not sign a peace deal without making some gains for his supporters. Therefor a symbolic area of land offered to Putin will make peace more likely. Undervalued.
mvp99312d
Shhh....don't spook them
0x21ab476e230a8Dc925305f7F7E7f57706c92B73B-1762980990274329d
you make me laugh :)
VatnikPride329d
Sounds good to me: democracy and all those Western values, unlike the current oppression of minorities.
ZephyrNoir340d
Ukraine's hypothetical recognition of Russian sovereignty over its regions by late 2026 would shatter NATO's eastern bulwark and ignite a cascade of separatist demands from the Baltics to the Black Sea.
RooseveltSkerrit341d
Ukraine rejects Russian sovereignty claims over its territory amid ongoing war.
marqumax374d
or people hedging against what they consider bad news
alexaverroes377d
Ua constitution is a piece of toilet paper
BridgetJones381d
People betting YES on this are delusional pro-russians.
iLoveGPT391d
Ukraine is Finished
iLoveGPT391d
Zelensky gonna capitulate all this territories
Giorgio2406d
This shit is literally forbidden by Ua’s constitution.
slavesdontspeak409d
wow, such an expert here XD
Beyond-Truth410d
this will prob not resolve or or will resolve into no, look at kosovo,
hehexdd417d
Yes, since Crimea is still considered ukrainian territory by the UN.
MagicEightBall418d
room temp. iq
tacticalanalysis418d
Would that also include recognizing Crimea as Russian territory?
migga419d
zelensky will deny, trump weaponizes denial, zelensky gtfo (elections/revolution), peace
buyrightbake419d
Zelensky [link removed] - “Ukrainians did not give up Kyiv, Odesa, or Kharkiv after 2022.” Look at what is absent
buyrightbake419d
All that’s left is to recognize it!
hehexdd419d
"Ukraine won’t give up territory Russia hasn’t captured, Zelenskyy says", in other words, Ukraine will give up territory Russia has captured. [link removed]
graphtheory420d
Market notification tracker and AI Profile Analyzer TG @PolymarketWalletBot
soft.caramel420d
Trump is an impotent pedo clown, his dick is only big enough to rape little kids
migga424d
[link removed]
migga424d
bid daddy Trump or smal d*ck eurpoors ?
buyrightbake427d
Then why’d you dump?
BuckMySalls428d
i didnt hear no bell
Poli.carpo428d
Puntin won’t accept anything that is not formalised at this point. He’s never been in such a dominant position (I mean, Ukraine would have to rely on the EU only)
pixls457d
Does it really fucking matter? Pm will just: [link removed]
jz3610137459d
???
jz3610137459d
ok?
ErorUSSER477d
strong strong
ErorUSSER477d
strong strong my friend
ErorUSSER477d
strong strong
buyrightbake477d
You’re right that those are their two options
SkyWhisperer484d
There's more chance that Ukraine will cease to exist than that it will recognize russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory. You don't understand how much this is important for Ukrainians.
Giorgio2531d
Therefore this market is about Ukraine capitulation because it's probably the only military situation where Ua would grant De jure recognition
LegaliseFinland536d
"We will never recognize the occupation of Crimea." - Minister of Economy of Ukraine [link removed]
LegaliseFinland542d
No Ukrainian wants this.
cqs557d
We both will have enough money to provide liquidity after Apr 20 hopefully
buyrightbake557d
Bring your liquidity up to mine and I’ll raise it
cqs560d
liquidity is really low here
cqs560d
interested in buying more?
Giorgio2562d
delululu
zya562d
even if no this will move up to around 40% before the end of the year
buyrightbake563d
There should be a tip jar on each market where the users can contribute to it. Then when it gets to a certain point, it buys an advertising space on a banner on the home page - in order to give it more exposure and increase the volume… These small markets get lost
lardons-867563d
based on your pnl you bet on what you wish to happen
lardons-867563d
nice pnl dumb commie
GenaTheBondKilIer563d
Mr Beast what's your opinion on the Ukranian rare metals market?
MAGA4eva565d
Cry harder Nazi
Giorgio2568d
What do you gain if you recognize that Crimea and Dumbass I are Russian. Nothing. Will it stop Russia from claiming more? No. Will it stop Russia from claiming war reparations. No. Will it embolden Russia to attack you again and ask for more territory and more recognition. Yes. Plus you insult the memory of the people who died diffending these territories.
Giorgio2569d
It’s a no and its always a no
buyrightbake571d
“Kursk won’t fall”
buyrightbake571d
“Ukraine doesn’t want to give up territory” Yea that’s what the war’s about.
BuckMySalls574d
[link removed] quick buy more yes
Giorgio2575d
[link removed]
buyrightbake576d
Shhhhhh
siick576d
They won’t until the will. If there’s a settlement, it will include giving up land. There will be no frozen line of contact like 2014
Giorgio2577d
What a surprise
SPIT577d
UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL SAYS KYIV WILL NOT RECOGNISE RUSSIAN RIGHTS OVER UKRAINIAN TERRITORY
buyrightbake577d
We did it! 500k!
Giorgio2578d
This is the final red line. V. Zelensky.
yeahyeahyeah580d
the people who buy "no" dont understand the inner ukranian politics. ukraine is deeply divided country for many dacedes and there is not much of solidarity. there is very good unity outwards since they all understand that their enemy is russia now and they also dont want foreign help to stop as well as they dont want to help russian pr. but there are many ukranians who not only agree to it but they never really saw eastern territories as "true ukranian" and the ppl as true ukranian. you dont need to listen to me ofc but there is a possibility of it happaning this year even if it didnt happan for a dacade about crimea. it also depends on how russia will play its cards
