Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
$1.3M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2028
December 31, 2027
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60%June 30, 2027
$29.2K Vol.
46%February 28, 2027
$11.4K Vol.
24%January 31, 2027
$9.3K Vol.
16%December 31, 2026
$209.4K Vol.
14%
$1.3M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2028
$38.9K Vol.
$29.2K Vol.
$11.4K Vol.
$9.3K Vol.
$209.4K Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
SIMOMEGA53d
point of your comment?
tiongbu57d
I will be smiling but you will be crying
DontTrustMe57d
You are so mysterious and so cool bro. 🥵
shomski58d
you will be smiling on tuesday
DontTrustMe72d
I don't think that WSJ article changes anything. There is no confirmation inside it that a merger will definitely happen. And if one was to ever happen, the article makes it clear that the Chinese side of Tesla's operations would first need to be fully separated or sold. 2026 is in all likelihood a too short timeframe for this to happen.
DontTrustMe78d
Are you talking about that: "The new shares, potentially worth an additional $600 billion or more, only vest if SpaceX hits two conditions: its top market capitalization milestone of $7.5 trillion, and the creation of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. " In the short-term (i.e. 2026), it's irrelevant imo. And implying that you couldn't properly manage them both as they were separated is not a very compelling/flattering argument that you would want to push yourself.
0xe1EF6DA20a953fa234e4B4c05D9ACc79d27a0145-177696016581378d
Wouldn't he want both the entities to merge and hopefully his tranches of stocks also vest(from the 1 Trillion that was given last year). I agree on risk of combined entity going down faster. But he coudl sell with the vision that he is managing them together as opposed to splitting his focus.
SIMOMEGA85d
how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol
DontTrustMe96d
Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.
SIMOMEGA100d
what are the downsides of a merge then?
ProofOfWork101d
He would gain control.
ProofOfWork101d
For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control
SIMOMEGA108d
dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?
SIMOMEGA110d
How?
LZABACUS138d
The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened
0xC1F43854000BFF81Da38332Fb25Cf94765bD5344-1768576770320212d
Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.
0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-1764900507058240d
G Wells
0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-1764900507058243d
H
