Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

$30.4K Vol.Ends 31 Oct 2026

October 14
$1.8K Vol.
35%▲24%
No release by October 31
$4.3K Vol.
28%
October 21
$1.8K Vol.
14%▼3%
October 28
$3K Vol.
7%▲3%
October 24
$203.8 Vol.
4%
October 13
$235 Vol.
4%
October 26
$857.6 Vol.
4%
October 19
$1.8K Vol.
4%
October 18
$235 Vol.
4%
October 30
$215 Vol.
4%
October 15
$195 Vol.
4%
October 20
$215 Vol.
4%
October 23
$190.6 Vol.
4%
October 17
$301 Vol.
4%
October 31
$444 Vol.
3%
October 22
$215 Vol.
3%
October 16
$1.3K Vol.
3%
October 25
$288 Vol.
<1%
October 12
$214 Vol.
<1%
October 27
$180 Vol.
<1%
October 29
$174 Vol.
<1%
October 11
$370 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.