This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
mikeken9h
before October 15th
418Imateapot23h
Looking back, this looks like a crazy accurate prediction of the events that would eventually come to pass.
helondust1d
Monday, check on X JustinGorya/status/2108578448490819723
Donttellyou2d
3.1pro leaving soon，so？
anoinwhowin3d
tick tock
JJ-95273d
lol
xiaojiren3d
That makes sense, if you can buy it, then it is accessible to the public.
xiaojiren3d
That makes sense, if you can buy it
418Imateapot3d
It's never only to Ultra subscribers, it's also via API with per-token cost, which automatically makes it a "yes". But even if for some reason it were via subscription only, it would still be a "yes", both due to precedent in other markets and because the general public would be able to just buy the subscription and use it.
lamyk3d
i have english linguistics phd
Mortenlu3d
What's your reasoning?
lamyk3d
no
xiaojiren3d
I wonder if releasing it only to Google AI Ultra subscribers would count as a “Yes” or a “No”？
Ponno3d
It has appeared on Google Cloud along with plan pricing; it is likely to be released today or tomorrow.
TPPKP4d
He bought at the peak, so there's no reason for him to lose his own money.
anoinwhowin4d
bot
TPPKP5d
Two new accounts, both specializing in this type of prediction market, with a near 100% win rate, seem almost certain to open before October 15th.
ImBruceWayne8d
nice to see you again buddy
atoms-18610d
为什么还没结算
Everestpredictions10d
Gemini 4 Argon - Pump Yes!
meower133810d
hi gemini 4 argon
Car11d
welcome to another game of insider or idiot
0x18ed92f7d10CB0522Da50B7776434f8e298Dde17-178266420249311d
Insider?
Kelugo14d
It will be released on oct first
Never-KYS45d
I guess it's time boys
Mikelious97d
It's coming home 17th of July lets goooo
Mikelious97d
Gemini 3.5 pro just announced as "coming soon" on Google Deep Mind. Gemini 4 is inevitably going to release with it as per credible leakers.
noniqque144d
we should just short google bro
418Imateapot152d
Yes.
noniqque163d
are prediction markets still extremely inefficient or am I extremely dumb
AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF261d
Was spotted in Antigravity [link removed]
AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF261d
Guys they're already A/B testing Gemini 4.0 [link removed]
George.Smiley289d
A hedge, probably won't pay out but 6 months is a long time
0xc6bD70e4d462CA1CE4360E47294671E997480b58-1745132572437289d
Did you buy yes for funsies
traderinchief296d
Odds are ridiculously high, there's no chance this happens. 3.0 is not even out of preview yet and there were 10 months between 2.0 and 3.0
George.Smiley298d
I know that. It's surprising though that we got a market for 4.0 before 3.5 given that Google does releases in 0.5 increments
ZynBaby298d
if u read the rules this is gemini 4.0 and a 4.0 flash market
George.Smiley298d
Crazy we got a Gemini 4.0 market before a Gemini 3.5 market
