French election called by...?
$1.1M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
French election called by December 31, 2026?
$7.9K Vol.
5%▼2%
$1.1M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$7.9K Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French parlimentary election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Antoon107d
Of course he won’t do that but be my guest
SwitchMario2019113d
Please add December 31 and April 25 / May 2 (2nd round presidential election) as Emmanuel Macron might dissolve just before Presidentials to "softlock" the new President for 1 year...
glenmor128d
There should be another date, 31 December.
Antoon184d
Who on earth can be long on this position?
DontTrustMe266d
"Mainstream" parties (LR & PS) won't get wiped out since control of local administrative echelons ("mairie", "departement" and "region") is the one thing that they can hang to these days. And the incumbency advantage is at its strongest for mayoral elections.
Lincolm267d
If the mainstream parties get wiped out in the locals, Macron won't dare call a legislative election this summer; it would be political suicide.
DontTrustMe268d
Sebastien Lecornu will make an announcement today. It seems likely that the 49.3 article of the French Constitution will be used by the government to pass the 2026 budget. The PS has already sent signals that they will be ok with it. And LR is a non-factor here. A new dissolution is very unlikely in the short-term. Especially before March mayoral elections.
DontTrustMe273d
I would much prefer the opposite, but unfortunately, I don't see a new dissolution happening in the very short-term. At the moment, the PS wants its stupid gamble to work out and then to claim that they won and that their strategy was the right one all along. And LR has already committed a political seppuku and is scared to death to return to the polls. I think this coalition of the weak should survive for now.
DontTrustMe274d
"Sebastien Lecornu explore l’hypothese d’une dissolution" - le Figaro The PM has asked the Interior Minister to examine the feasibility of new general elections at the same time of the mayoral elections. Probably to apply some pressure on the parties that have no interest in a new dissolution right now to be honest.
DontTrustMe276d
The timing would be awful. Parties are now focused on the upcoming mayoral elections. And new general elections would mean no budget for a while. It was of course incredibly irresponsible of centrist parties & LR to refuse to push for new elections when it was logical to do so (last September / October). The situation is messy and this government is pathetic but I think it will survive at least until March.
nidrac278d
France’s budget is still unresolved. In January, Parliament must examine the budget, with the gvt relying on fragile majorities. A rejection could trigger a vote of no confidence, potentially forcing the Prime Minister to step down and possibly new elections. [link removed]
ManWithNoName311d
il ny' aura pas de dissolution avant noel, il faut que nos deputes puissent partir au ski quand meme
0x128522DF2B32D0063124fe3692C259cE18a65Dd7-1764065406006319d
Yaurarien
SebastienFastoche334d
FRANCE BAISE OUAIS
mach333350d
French election will not be called by, Lecornu will remain, Macron cannot afford to lose his prime minister again
Captainice360d
I’m gonna buy more very soon. However this will depend on what resistance party introduces as for the budget bill. If I was PM, I’ll compromise now, give the socialists what they want in return for short term alliance until Le pen is imprisoned. Start betting on macron being ousted by June
Captainice360d
What did I say people, what did I say lol.
0x73835141b180a0032dD8666ae6585a96d1B06b32-1760099314581360d
free money elections before 31/12/25 ...
0x1490D2aDb8d9bC49ec054eA454FECe64B3E602e9-1760053293197360d
Classical UMPS
JeanneAuSecours9360d
On vit quand meme une epoque ou socialiste et republicain se sont allies pour pas se soumettre au vote
Zaitzev360d
nothing ever happens les gars
LouisLouvel360d
Yep. December another story, would still hard for PS to tell on every TV interviews that they accept Lecornu's budget
mcpetrus360d
18 votes short. The October dates are off the table.
mcpetrus360d
It is relatively unwise to place money on one's personal hopes rather than relying on objective information...
Biurk360d
LR seats are all empty, it's over , fucking traitors.
JeanneAuSecours9360d
Ah ca, ca ressemblerait bien a ces enormes chiennes
Giorgio2360d
Je vois bien les LR voter uniquement la motion du RN
Toncar16360d
Mdrrrr meilleure pseudo
JeanneAuSecours9360d
Joli pseudo, j'approuve
MangueDelicieuse360d
ces cucks du PS perdent juste du temps
JeanneAuSecours9360d
Ca va se jouer a 10 voix, peut etre moins. On gaarde une haute proba que le gouv tienne, mais ca va etre drole a voir
Biurk360d
We now have 12 PS deputees who will vote the censure. We are so close, we only need 5 more from LR or PS.
0xC6e1b01850d0A21011B705B199A8B93EB73d6566-1759707523274360d
Just see it. Ok
0xC6e1b01850d0A21011B705B199A8B93EB73d6566-1759707523274360d
where ?
Biurk360d
No Macron explicitely said he will instantly call the election if Lecornu is censored.
0xC6e1b01850d0A21011B705B199A8B93EB73d6566-1759707523274360d
And so ? Even if it goes to censure, there's no guarantee to have an election called so fast ... There's could be another PM ..
Biurk360d
6 LIOT, 3 NI, 8 PS, ? LR , -1 ECOLO we need 9 more from PS or LR than those who already said they will censure
LaVacherie360d
Right now, there is likely 8 PS to vote the censure, with uncertain number of LR dissidents... it will be played at about 5 votes under or above
MyUncleWontHugMe360d
Could a homie please send me a dollar? Thanks
i-bet-uwu360d
5 PS deputies say that they will vote the censure. Guys... It's going to be really close. The fact that some contestation is rising might be huge. The vote of tomorrow is going to be REALLY close. Probably less than 20 deputies.
LaVacherie360d
The yes will be between 282-294
0x453d79ccD47bDCA95256e2882114B512820485cd-1760207275064361d
I appeal to all Toyota drivers! I have a dream Toyota Camry Hybrid 70 2021. You understand what I'm talking about. This is the best car in the world. Support me with your donation. And I will be grateful to everyone.
Biurk361d
yeah I agree, I think it's possible to get a lot of PS and LR deserting their party and going LFI and UDR. the 3% odds is crazy, it should be 25-30.
LaVacherie361d
Tbh, it's less. 7 to 10 votes will come from LIOT and Non-Attached, and at least 3 PS will vote too. It will be very close. I would not be surprised if 9 to 14 LR vote too.
JeanneAuSecours9361d
okay.
polybet361d
He is right no one cares about Horizon
Biurk361d
PS and LR are getting a lot of heat for their decision, we know for sure some deputees will not follow their party direction, there is still a slim chance the thursday vote is won. there need to be 24 dissident out ~120
i-bet-uwu361d
force
DontTrustMe361d
In all likelihood, the October 17th and October 31th "Yes" bets are now off. Some PS, LR and independent MPs will probably vote the "motion de censure" but it will most likely not be enough. --- It should be noted that, as it stands right now, LR (more specifically, LR MPs) is more or less committing a political suicide. They negotiated nothing and have nothing to gain by supporting the government. But I doubt that they will change their mind within the next 24 hours. --- The December 31th "Yes" bet might still be on due to the way Lecornu's government has decided to handle the budget discussions. It is 99% certain that the final version of the budget will p*ss off every party. Furthermore, the PS is still threatening to vote a no-confidence vote later on. But the timing is going to become less and less ideal for new general elections. Both the PS and LR will prefer to bet on March 2026 mayoral elections to build up/regain some political momentum.
0x0729bA4cA4C85D9265c0644130E429a2f54D39A1-1760166676193361d
its for thursday ..
MangueDelicieuse361d
Un depute horizons vient de dire qu'ils vont pas censurer, ca tient pas du tt ton histoire, c'est soit PS qui censure, voire LR mais c'est tout
HowlingPup361d
Well then pick up some easy money in the credit downgrade that ensues
JeanneAuSecours9361d
even in the central block Macron pissed off a lot of people
Giorgio2361d
You think people will make the difference between Re and Horizon.. ? They were both supporting macron like two weeks ago. People are not like us lol, they don't give a shit about politics. They know that E. Philippe was former PM of Macron and supporting him until end of September that's it.
JeanneAuSecours9361d
Horizon is more popular than renaissance.... I disagree with you
Giorgio2361d
Horizon will be crushed too if election are called and Edouard will have no party to support his loosing election bid lol
Toncar16361d
Because only 20 votes are missing, and we already know that there are deputies among the Republicans and Socialists who won’t follow the voting instructions.
JeanneAuSecours9362d
Horizon promise to censor if the retirement reform is suspended. In addition Horizon's president, who asked Macron to resign last week, talk about a "dangerous concession to the Socialists". Nupes + RN and alies + Horizon are enough to censor this government. Buying NO at 90 is being crazy
mw97362d
Why would the no confidence vote pass? Lecornu agreed to Socialists demands and said he will postpone the 2023 pension reform.
VictorT362d
[link removed]
Toncar16362d
At any moment, elections are called as early as Thursday haha
CriiSpS362d
thank you
CriiSpS362d
sorry i am new here, if an election is called let's say tonight, it means all YES win or only the October 17 yes? thanks it' snot clear for me :)
mcpetrus362d
October dates 1%. Year-end 33%.
VictorT362d
LR is the cucks' party, they would sell their own mother rather than losing their seat. They won't vote any motion...
clemand362d
It’s over retards
LouisLouvel362d
Horizon ne vont jamais censurer. Ils perdraient la moitie de leur siege et il y aurait meme un risque qu'ils n'aient plus de groupe parlementaire. De plus il y a 3-4 ministres Horizons dans le gouvernement
VictorT362d
PS deals with Lecornu.
HowlingPup362d
It is over No wins
Toncar16362d
[link removed]
i-bet-uwu362d
Lecornu suspend la reforme des retraites. Le PS ne censurera pas
JeanneAuSecours9362d
et Horizon a dit qu'en cas de suspension il censurerai
DontTrustMe362d
Non. Juste une menace.
0x0729bA4cA4C85D9265c0644130E429a2f54D39A1-1760166676193362d
pour moi je viens de faire un bon investissement le PS a depose une motion de censure
i-bet-uwu362d
Le PS a dit sur twitter que s'il n'y avait pas une suspension immediate et totale ils censureraient.
JeanneAuSecours9362d
JE TE FAIRE COURRIR MOI, ROUQUIN
MangueDelicieuse362d
si suspension = le ps ne vote pas la censure avant le 17. Dans tout les cas le budget doit etre vote par les senateurs, qui vont en grande majorite ne pas le voter
MangueDelicieuse362d
"le PS s’apprete a voter un texte ou la seule condition de la non censure serait la suspension de la reforme des retraites. " ca a l’air d’etre dealer avec Lecornu " dit un participant. " Ca a l'air d'aller vers une non censure lol
MangueDelicieuse362d
non c'est toi tes un clown, bien sur que ca peut tomber en decembre, et ca tombera forcement avant decembre.
JeanneAuSecours9362d
if you're american we could understand your misunderstanding, mais si vous etes francais, les mecs vous etes des enormes trous de balles
JeanneAuSecours9362d
You are completely nuts, the government will fall on Thursday or it won’t. Elections will either be announced on Friday or they won’t happen. October 17 should be much higher.
MangueDelicieuse362d
yeah its 50-50
Toncar16362d
If Lecornu doesn't give them what they want today, Thursday, the government will fall.
Toncar16362d
[link removed]
MangueDelicieuse362d
mehhh, PS could not vote instantly the censor if Lecornu suspend the retirement reform.
Toncar16362d
[link removed]
MangueDelicieuse362d
Lecornu: "Je vais bouger mais sans faire n'importe quoi"
Toncar16362d
[link removed]
Toncar16362d
Continue buying "no" for October 17 at 85c! Censorship mentions will be reviewed this Thursday, and only 25 votes are needed, which the Socialist Party can provide today. Macron just said that government censorship = dissolution. Several PS members already want to vote for censorship. The price will soon be at 50%.
