Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
$3.9M Vol.Ends 04 Nov 2026
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
$3.9M Vol.
27%▲2%
$3.9M Vol.Ends 04 Nov 2026
$3.9M Vol.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Applem3d
Sup
TheArtOfTACO6d
Defeating prop 40 unfortunately doesn't purchase billionaire loyalty. They'd leave anyway.
vsv098d
Bro is clearly a multimillionaire btw
vsv098d
Unlikely
vsv098d
''While libertarian theory emphasizes non-aggression.'' Libertarian theory also emphasizes not taxing people
bernardbulletin24d
Tax billionaires out of existence
betpro341d
This is not what this market is about though
Geolibertarian71d
This is underpriced. Never underestimate the stupidity of the average voter.
0xEFB90c1feCfFB3874aB75b1E73Ee81bb87874383-175882699360686d
Interesting point, the voters will decide and I think we know which way they will lean!
AliKhamenei106d
difference is that the democratic party leaders like Gavin Newsome opposes the billionaire tax, but I doubt he will support the poison pill bill
polymark106d
Could this increase the odds for this market? If im reading the rules of the market correctly, it could resolve Yes because the measure passes during the election but the wealth tax could still not take effect if either of the poison pill initiatives pass. Meaning, those opposing it could direct resources into the making sure the other initiatives pass instead.
polymark106d
Seems as if those opposed to it believe there's a serious chance it could pass: "Two efforts that were crafted to sink the proposed billionaire tax — dubbed poison pills — also qualified for the Nov. 3 ballot, according to the California Secretary of State’s office. One would bar new state taxes on personal property, while the other prohibits any new taxes being exempted from existing state spending rules and to be regularly audited. If the billionaire tax proposal is approved by voters but either of the other proposals receives more votes, the tax measure would be voided."
polymark106d
Sure, but there's been plenty of measures & candidates that won that were not the most well funded. The 'poison pill' initiatives indicate, along with the revealed preferences of certain wealthy people (e.g. Sergey Brin moving out of the state), that there's a serious possibility the wealthy believe it could pass. Newsom & other establishment Dems opposing it does hurt it tho
AliKhamenei106d
support drops drastically for any ballot measure as the election gets closer. Billionaires are going to be dumping millions into ad campaigns
AliKhamenei106d
Can we have a 100% Wealth Tax for Gavin Newsome please?
polymark145d
Polling consistently has 50 to 60% support. Can anyone steelman the case for why they think it won't pass? I get the sense that, given ballot measures aren't compulsory to vote on, there's a much larger number of people who are passionately in favor of this vs the number that are against it. (From the Wikipedia page for Polling data)
iutwpfal161d
Yes but no but irrelevant
kkss198x162d
the fixed assets—factories and infrastructure—remain. As long as engineers and skilled labor stay, production can be restarted. While libertarian theory emphasizes non-aggression.
mever167d
If the rich all leave, will the poor still have job opportunities?
thechainsmokers223d
2 million dollar volume is not gonna cover a billion dollars buddy
adonpoli240d
another pump ?
Eia240d
Since poly is used as "polling" info in news media, trying to influence the polybet to influence the real world vote? Surprising its on the opposite side of the billionaires..
Eia240d
Whats up with these three new accounts hoarding all the yes?
nick-turani269d
this will violate both the california state constitution and the united states constitution: 14th amendment due process, retroactivity, right to travel, armstrong vs US, then 5th amendment takings, forced liquidation. this is free money, no chance this can proceed from both state and federal levels
Obamnna274d
Asking questions like this is why you are poor
0xed2c…278d
Why aren't any billionaires using this market to hedge?
Riles281d
So, California is run by big tech billionaires, so who really is going to pay?
0x8eF79Ab0Ea2E277CB87c7A43AB6507814a544E2A-1759336835678282d
Got to protect those billionaires
0x30ab…283d
What caused the pump and what the dump?
NadyaSuleman283d
"one-time" lmao
thecaricature350d
Just one time communism, I am sure...
Audrey2.0351d
let me buy no at a reasonable price
dontshowmyname351d
what kind of communist bs is this
