Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
$16.8M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
December 31
$1.6M Vol.
16%▲1%October 31
$1.2M Vol.
7%▲1%
$16.8M Vol.Ends 01 Jan 2027
$1.6M Vol.
$1.2M Vol.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
yungsoleimani5d
Imagine thinking they arent using BaM as leverage to keep foreign interference out… LOL
yungsoleimani5d
Yopp
yungsoleimani6d
If the market is mispriced according to you, buy more lol?
SIMOMEGA11d
the market isnt always right, but good luck trying to change 1M of votes on ur own
TouchdownTerryDunk13d
This should still equate to higher odds of closure because even if Houthis have decided for now not to close the strait, it's now completely within their power to do so and would be an obvious escalatory move if at any point they chose to escalate the ever-expanding war they're now in.
Tezcatlipoca16d
There was some assumption that if the houthis took over bab they would immediately shut it down and traffic would drop to almost zero. It’s still open and working relatively normally
zthunderfury18d
Imagine thinking random bulk craft going through suez being the same thing as a saudi oil tanker
Telepath-One19d
Because the Houthis recently reinforced their commitment to only striking Saudi ships and Trump allegedly backed off on planned strikes on Yemen.
TouchdownTerryDunk19d
I understand the rules of the wager but I fail to see how 'Houthis seizing control of the BaM and escalating war with Saudi + possibly US' equates to ever diminishing odds of strait closure. Makes no sense.
503881318521d
Time decay. 30+ ships are still going through the strait. But if that will still happen is the question.
TouchdownTerryDunk22d
Sorry, so if it is being reported that "Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb Strait solidified, raising closure risks", why is the price of Yes for any of the above dates going down? How does this make sense?
SIMOMEGA23d
keep this pfp please
DawnOfYemen25d
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: GETTING MORE FLOW THROUGH BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT WOULD BE HELPFUL - REPORTS
DawnOfYemen25d
Kaja Kallas: The Bab al-Mandab is currently closed and we must strengthen the "Aspides" operation to ensure maritime security
DawnOfYemen25d
YEMENI MILITARY SOURCE TO DPA: THE HOUTHIS HAVE PLANTED MINES INTO THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT
Eirnearzx5126d
boberne is win
0x30ab…26d
noone is stopping you lil bro
tsybka27d
I want to buy a lot of Dec NO shares.
Car28d
bruh
DontTrustMe28d
Yes buyers be like:
Raskell29d
War + the current block is the most propable yes scenario at the moment. The houthis don't want more international pressure atm.
Raskell29d
The hardest part isn't if they can maintain a block but if they will even initiate a block that goes far enough. The best shot we have is that the current war caused enough diversions for this to go yes just from that.
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-177167165465630d
Pretty sure announcement, and traffic going to 0 today. Weird it correlated exactly on 9/11
Prof.Money-Exterminator30d
Houthis are fucking wild. Ain’t no way for Nopers
saneperson30d
yemeni forces had to back off and houthis moved forward
503881318530d
Agree with you, the hardest part is whether Houthi is able to maintain the block. More bullish news from Hormuz Letter X, Hisn Murad, the narrowest part of the strait, just fell to the Houthis. However take this as a grain of salt as they sometimes overexaggerate.
Raskell30d
That being said, of course the market conditions for a yes could be met temporarily.
Raskell30d
The Egyptians won't tolerate a full closure. The chinese have shown clearly they will side with Egypt. Saudi Arabia is a clown show, but Ansar Allah can not ignore Beijing.
PMplayer30d
annyone care to explain why sept 30 is going up ?
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-177167165465630d
They literally have one more island to take on the straight and then they can shut it down... they captured 3 in a day i believe. No one to stop them.
yungsoleimani31d
houthi mog
SIMOMEGA47d
Nopp
IamBatman-48d
yopp
yungsoleimani49d
December 31 Yopp is free money, do i make the rules? No! I just collect the money man sorry not sorry
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d49d
I wish you had told me before I bought all those YES shares
zthunderfury49d
Not going to happen
hyper-liquid-xyz51d
Actually, not bearish anymore. You could write Aug off but Sep/Dec idk. USS George Washington replacement just arrived. Look at Al-Jazeera for updates in US Iran relations.
hyper-liquid-xyz52d
I am an Pakistani ship! I went through the strait and there were not any mines...yet. I am scared once Iran gives the order, they could throw any random amount in there!
Deterrance53d
Houthis planning to seize Bab al-Mandeb Strait: Yemeni minister
DontTrustMe53d
Nothing has changed btw. 🥱
yungsoleimani56d
Sorry not sorry i dont make the rules i just collect the money man
DontTrustMe57d
There might a tiny seasonal effect. Early-mid August is unlikely to be the busiest time of the year.
AmericaOnly59d
Shipping down from 42 to 25 since 2 weeks ago. Dec here we come.
trickykid63d
Just keep buying 31st Dec "Yes". Any escalation will send this bet to the moon.
SIMOMEGA65d
i wouldnt speak with that pnl
SIMOMEGA65d
hormuz tried the same game, it didnt work
SIMOMEGA65d
madman indeed
zthunderfury65d
rewards gone
DontTrustMe66d
Why do you think that?
PMplayer66d
order book on this market is completely fcked
DontTrustMe66d
Weird. Was the weather abnormally bad yesterday? Traffic seems fairly normal today.
0xc327CcdEAbf1BdBd98722C4C2A360F2C3FDC31f5-174213931358666d
"In Bab al-Mandeb, only one commodity vessel, a Bahamas-flagged dry bulk carrier, crossed the strait on Wednesday, Kpler data showed" from Al jazeera
AmericaOnly67d
I love how they blasted Dubai and literally SUNK a ship in BaM and this is plummeting 🤣
ThanksGivingTurkey100167d
resulv lil bruh
0x30ab…67d
It could have been resolved a week ago
Utoya67d
July 31st can now be resolved right?
hyper-liquid-xyz68d
It is bearish due to US willing to surrender. There is also a high threshold that has to be reached before Houthi expands it to non-Saudi ships, and even then that won't settle 100% it would settle like 50 + 7-10% per each of the 7 days.
JohanDON68d
Why
zthunderfury69d
Not going to happen
JohanDON71d
Lessgooo
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d73d
I am Spanish ship and no way I'm getting in there. I sail around Affrica and be safe. ¡Paella para todos!
hyper-liquid-xyz73d
I am Pakistani ship. Houthi gave me permission to go back and forth the strait 100 times this week! I accepted their toll and promised to support their propaganda!
NOIZYUV74d
Reuters: Sources estimate that Houthi rebels in Yemen are considering imposing "transit fees" on commercial vessels passing through the southern Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
0x30ab…74d
I dont think so
Greed.74d
Maybe u should go to Financial Maths class
💰💰75d
i will be using my winnings to pay for tuition
88blitzcrank76d
what's stopping the houthis from de facto blockading every ship if US bombs them? all they need is a drone
SIMOMEGA76d
if US gets involved ur thesis gets even weaker
SIMOMEGA76d
around tuesday
SIMOMEGA76d
only saudis getting targeted
0x30ab…77d
keep buying july 31 or go to math class
ThanksGivingTurkey100177d
NO chads
nooneknow277d
ur right
zthunderfury78d
Not Going To Happen
BlindAndDeaf78d
Saudi vessels are a small minority of vessels passing
Malganis78d
you guys know their just going to keep blowing up ship yeah?
NOIZYUV78d
Saudi Arabia is attacking Yemen rn
Relaccsed79d
More ship strikes and ts is cooked. Aint no one going to cross the strait while they’re firing at ships.
0x30ab…79d
People give a 3% chance to something with 0% chance, interesting...
88blitzcrank79d
Tuesday. Truth social post today about final warnings for Houthis but we will see how they react. Saudi is not enough but if US gets involved we see fireworks in the strait.
DontTrustMe79d
Too many ships crossing, it's going to take some time to count them all. 🫨
Tezcatlipoca79d
when does portwatch moving average update?
